Former President Trump and President Biden reeled in victories in Tuesday’s presidential contests in 15 states, paving the way for a November rematch in what analysts expect to be a close race ultimately decided by voters in a handful of states amid historically unique circumstances.

Trump challenger Nikki Haley battled to keep her White House bid afloat through the Super Tuesday contests but won only Vermont (by 4 points), which blocked a Trump sweep but showcased her losses in states that mathematically spelled delegate defeat. She will announce in Charleston this morning that she’s suspending her campaign, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Delegate count: Trump, as of this writing, is 200 delegates shy of locking up the GOP nomination, according to Decision Desk HQ projections. 👉 See results HERE at The Hill’s election center. The former president is expected to reach the GOP delegate threshold needed by mid-March.

The Hill’s Niall Stanage in the Memo lines up the unsurprising winners and perhaps some unexpected losers Tuesday. 

Biden assembled a cascade of Super Tuesday successes in Democratic contests, with the exception of a surprise defeat in American Samoa’s caucus, the first such drubbing for an incumbent president since former President Carter’s primary experience in 1980. Little known winner Jason Palmer in Samoa urged Biden during a CNN interview to “pass the torch to the next generation of Americans.”

“We have a great Republican Party with tremendous talent, and we want to have unity, and we’re going to have unity, and it’s going to happen very quickly,” Trump told supporters Tuesday night from Florida.

“Today, millions of voters across the country made their voices heard — showing that they are ready to fight back against Donald Trump’s extreme plan to take us backwards,” Biden said on X, formerly Twitter. 

Results Tuesday offered clues about voters’ thinking ahead of November. Most worrisome for the Biden campaign were exit polls from California that showed Trump, who is campaigning to attract more Latino and Black voters to his camp, making strides in the GOP primary among nonwhite voters, Reuters noted.

Republican voters also may be growing more comfortable with the idea that their nominee could be convicted of a felony if criminal prosecutions go to trial before November, according to reactions in exit polls.

TUESDAY’S DOWN-BALLOT RACES were less definitive than the presidential primary contests.

In Texas, Rep. Colin Allred (D) won the Democratic primary, setting him up for a one-on-one matchup with incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November. Allred beat out a crowded field of nine Democrats to take on Cruz, who is a top target for Democrats this year as they are largely on defense as they fight to hold on to the Senate (The Hill and NBC News).

California is also shaping up to be a crucial state for Democrats this cycle, as they vie to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) seat and look to notch some crucial wins to flip the House in November. Rep. Adam Schiff (D) won the Golden State’s nonpartisan so-called “jungle primary,” beating out fellow Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, as well as Republican baseball great Steve Garvey.

In California’s system, Schiff and Garvey, the top two vote-getters, will move on to the general election in November. Schiff’s allies had worked to elevate Garvey, the Republican, in hopes of an easier red-blue match-up in the general, rather than a battle between Democrats (The Hill).

Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who voted for Trump’s impeachment, survived his primary in the 22nd District, garnering 34 percent of the votes. He’ll face off against Democrat Rudy Salas, who placed second with 30 percent.

In the battleground state of North Carolina, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein won their parties’ respective primaries for governor. Robinson is a conservative culture warrior who’s made a litany of controversial comments and has Trump’s endorsement, while Stein had the backing of the state’s Democratic elites. The race is expected to be one of the closest gubernatorial contests in the country this year, with most other governor’s races not very competitive (The Hill).

The Hill: There will be a runoff in the crowded Alabama Democratic House primary for the 2nd Congressional District between Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels.

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Protest voters: An “uncommitted” protest vote over U.S. policy in Gaza again raised questions for Biden on Tuesday (Reuters and Politico). With almost 90 percent of the expected primary votes counted in Minnesota, 19 percent of Democrats marked their ballots “uncommitted” to show their opposition to Biden’s backing for Israel’s attacks against Hamas in Gaza. The “uncommitted” vote was also on the Democratic ballot in six other Super Tuesday states: Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Tennessee. Support in those states ranged from 3.9 percent in Iowa to 12.7 percent in North Carolina, with more than 85 percent of the votes counted in each of those states, according to Edison Research.

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LEADING THE DAY

MORE POLITICS 

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who began her Senate term as a Democrat, announced Tuesday she will not seek reelection. After months of speculation and volatile polls, Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief that the party can sidestep what might have become a messy three-way contest pitting the incumbent against Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican candidate Kari Lake, widely expected to win the primary in a battleground state.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) separately praised Sinema Tuesday for her legislative record and her aisle-crossing fortitude while representing her state.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton explores some of the high anxiety among Senate Democrats who say they’re weighing Trump’s political surge and Biden’s electoral vulnerabilities. Senate Democrats have remained publicly unified behind the president amid plenty of hand-wringing. 

Libertarian Party members, strategists and activists say they would be enthused if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. switched to a Libertarian Party ticket for president, after his October leap from Democrat to independent. “There are people within the Liberty movement that would like to help him,” said Ron Nielson, who served as former Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson’s campaign manager during the 2012 and 2016 elections (The Hill). 

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ZOOM IN

ADMINISTRATION 

BIDEN FACES A MAJOR TEST and a significant opportunity with Thursday’s State of the Union address, which will serve as a springboard into his general election campaign against Trump. The annual State of the Union address will give him a huge stage and prime-time address in the middle of his reelection campaign to tout his accomplishments, set up what he would do with another four years, and make his case against Trump and MAGA Republicans. The speech will also give Biden the chance to dispel doubts about his age and vigor, at least for one night, as he delivers a lengthy address and potentially spars with GOP hecklers in the audience (The Hill).

“He has two tasks,” said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at left-leaning think tank Third Way. “One is to get voters to feel better about his presidency and the accomplishments he’s had, and the other is to remind voters of the chaos of Donald Trump and to make that a searing memory that they don’t want to go back to.”

When Biden delivers the speech, he’ll be staring into a crowd embodying two explosive issues that have fueled the partisan tensions — the border crisis and women’s reproductive health. Republicans have focused their guest list on the fallout from the migrant surge at the southern border, highlighting an issue that’s dogged the Biden administration and threatens to be the president’s top vulnerability in November.

Democrats, meanwhile, are inviting a host of advocates for women’s reproductive health that include those impacted by abortion bans and prominent supporters of in vitro fertilization (IVF) — an effort designed to highlight the toppling of Roe v. Wade and the conservative state restrictions that have arrived in the wake of that decision (The Hill). Those themes will be in the president’s address. 

💬 The New Yorker’s John Cassidy offers some mock Biden State of the Union text focused on an economic theme and references to low unemployment: “It’s been below four percent for roughly two years now, which is something that hasn’t happened since the Beatles were still together and I was graduating from law school and going to work as a public defender in Wilmington.” 

Vice President Harris’s Gaza speech on Sunday, reviewed by the White House National Security Council as a draft, was toned down before she spoke, NBC News reported. Sources told NBC the original draft of Harris’s speech was harsher on Israel about the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the need for more aid. The softening of Harris’s remarks, which received extensive news coverage, suggests continued White House sensitivities about publicly criticizing Israel as Biden seeks to maintain some influence to secure a cease-fire and hostage exchange deal.

PLUTONIUM “PITS,” first produced in 1945, are part of a plan at New Mexico’s Los Alamos National Laboratory this year; they’re considered a vital component of warheads in the U.S. nuclear arsenal and tied to the Air Force’s modernized intercontinental ballistic missile program called Sentinel,  The Hill’s Brad Dress reports in the second of a three-part series. Sentinel, an expensive program with its share of critics, is scheduled to be fielded in the western rural U.S. in the 2030s.

Scientific American special report (December): The new nuclear age.

DESPITE 8,000 MILES and a 14-hour time difference, the chaos of Washington is never that far away from Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. “The question I get, based on my background and experience, [is] will the Congress measure up to the responsibilities the United States has to this moment?” he told The Hill’s Laura Kelly during an interview in Tokyo late last month. 

Emanuel, known in Washington as a Democratic infighter, was a top campaign and White House adviser to former President Clinton, served three terms in the House from Illinois, agreed to be former President Obama’s first chief of staff, became Chicago’s mayor for eight roller coaster years and was confirmed by the Senate 48-21 as ambassador after Biden took office in 2021.

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LAW & COURTS 

TWO OVERSIGHT HEARINGS this week will focus on Fulton County Democratic District Attorney Fani Willis of Georgia and her relationship with a special prosecutor on the high-profile election interference case targeting Trump and allies. Judge Scott McAfee in Georgia said he will issue a decision this month about whether to remove Willis, and potentially her team, from the case. Rather than in a courtroom, where many romantic details of Willis’s relationship with Nathan Wade spilled out into public view, their courtship will now be at the center of a state Senate committee hearing Wednesday and before a county ethics board Thursday. 

McAfee’s looming decision poses a greater threat to Willis’s future overseeing the case than the proceedings set to unfold this week. While the state committee can subpoena witnesses and compel documents — and once its investigation has concluded, it is expected to author a report detailing its findings and any recommendations — it cannot directly sanction Willis (The Hill).

“This is not going to be a partisan process …  We have both parties included in this committee for a reason,” said Georgia Sen. Bill Cowsert (R), the body’s majority leader who chairs the committee. “And it’s important for our validity that the public understand that this is not any type of political witch hunt, this is a quest for the truth, and we’re going to use the tools available for us.” 

Meanwhile, the Republican-led House Judiciary Committee on Friday issued a subpoena for Willis. Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) wrote that the committee is “prioritizing” this line of inquiry into Willis’s use of federal funds over past document requests focused on determining whether her prosecution of Trump is “politically motivated” (Axios).

The New York Times analysis: In major cases concerning Trump, the Supreme Court has tried to put some distance between itself and politics. That fragile project does not seem to be succeeding.

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ELSEWHERE

INTERNATIONAL

TALKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST aimed at achieving a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel remain underway in Cairo today, though a deal does not appear imminent. In a statement, Hamas said that it would continue efforts to reach a deal and that it had exhibited “flexibility” in the negotiations. The group appeared to blame Israel for the absence of results so far.

A day earlier, an Israeli government spokesman told reporters that Israel has put its “cards on the table,” expressing hope for an agreement. The United States, Egypt and Qatar are mediating and the Biden administration publicly pressed Hamas to accept Israel’s proposal, which involves a temporary cease-fire and hostage swaps, perhaps ahead of next week’s start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE is largely fought on the ground with troops often locked in back-and-forth battles with heavy artillery and drone support. But Russia’s air force has taken on a greater role against Ukraine. Military analysts say Russia has increasingly used warplanes near the front lines to drop powerful guided bombs and clear a path forward for its infantry, a tactic that comes with risks.

“It’s a costly but quite effective tool that Russia is now using in the war,”Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian army colonel, told The New York Times. “It’s dangerous for them to send their fighter jets” close to the front line, he added, but it can “impact Ukrainian positions effectively.”

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THE CLOSER

And finally … Americans can vote by mail. They vote absentee. Americans abroad and members of the military can participate in U.S. elections from another country, and NASA astronauts living in space can choose candidates while circling the planet in orbit. (Perhaps that vantage point 262 miles up sharpens perspectives about the stakes.) 

NASA developed measures in the late 1990s to ensure that astronauts living and working in space, and now on the International Space Station for long shifts, can still participate in democracy. “Float while you vote,” was the phrase used after 1997, when early voting from space using encrypted ballot technology became possible under legislation signed by then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas (USA Today).

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