Trump and Harris are locked in what the latest polls indicate is a pitched battle nationally and in swing states. Despite the hoopla and enthusiasm voters have shown for Harris, Trump’s standing has not eroded nationally since the summer and could be on the cusp of edging past her.
What happens Tuesday between the presidential contenders has the potential to impact down-ballot candidates — and even autumn clashes in the House and Senate as lawmakers return to Washington today after a summer break (more on that, below).
The New York Times, The Tilt newsletter (paywall): Analysis of the state of the race as of this morning.
There are 57 days until Nov. 5 and Trump wants to embellish his portrait of Harris during the debate using a ready arsenal of attacks and provocations. He tells voters she’s “extreme,” “dangerous,” a “Marxist,” a flip-flopper on policies she once endorsed, and the person to blame, along with President Biden, for the border crisis and persistent inflation, two issues voters care about.
If crowd size matters, Trump, who has participated in seven debates in three presidential cycles, hopes to convey his ideas about the vice president to a debate viewership that could be among the largest in recent years.
“I’m going to let her talk,” the Republican nominee told an interviewer recently.
Jim Messina, former campaign manager and former White House aide to former President Obama, predicted that listening will not be Trump’s playbook.
“Donald Trump, I promise you, is not going to sit there and let her have at it,” he told Fox News Sunday.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who campaigned and debated in the Democratic presidential primary in 2020, called Trump “a master of taking any form or format that is on television and turning it into a show that is all about him.”
Interviewed on CNN on Sunday, Buttigieg predicted Harris will have an “extremely challenging task in the face of all of the distraction, whatever outrageous things he does and says, because they will require a response, and yet you can’t allow him to change the subject.”
▪ The Hill: Trump’s debate challenge centers on avoiding “personal nonsense.”
▪ The Hill: How will Trump’s debate against Harris differ from his event with Biden?
▪ NBC News: Harris is preparing for potential volatile moments in her first debate against Trump.
▪ ABC News: Trump is receiving debate assistance from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Tulsi Gabbard, a former House Democrat from Hawaii who was on a debate stage with Harris in 2019.
▪ Politico: Trump’s debate playbook: Call the rules “rigged” and undermine the moderators.
▪ The Hill: Harris wants to challenge Trump on policy issues Tuesday.
▪ The New York Times: How Harris may take the fight to Trump on abortion at the debate.
Harris has for days been rehearsing and preparing for the Tuesday face-off, which will be the first time the two candidates have met. During a Sunday stroll in Pittsburgh with her husband, Doug Emhoff, Harris borrowed a Trumpian mannerism when asked by a reporter if she is ready for the debate. Using a thumbs-up gesture, she answered, “Ready!”
Campaign stops: On Thursday, Harris will rally voters in North Carolina and be back in Pennsylvania Friday. Running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will be in Nevada Tuesday, Michigan on Thursday and Wisconsin on Friday. A new Harris-Walz ad will air in swing states titled “New Way Forward,” describing some policy proposals. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the GOP vice presidential nominee, will headline a Tuesday fundraiser in Greenville, N.C.
Vance and Walz agreed to a debate Oct. 1, hosted by CBS News.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
▪ Troubled Boeing reached a tentative labor deal Sunday to avert a possible strike with a union that represents more than 32,000 workers in the Pacific Northwest. It includes a 25 percent pay hike and a new plane commitment.
▪ Elon Musk is absent from Time’s new cover article about the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence (AI), but the story included actress Scarlett Johannson. The magazine sparked some controversy.
▪ Apple’s iPhone 16 and new product unveiling event today will focus on AI, including an upgraded Siri voice assistant with more conversational capabilities.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press / Jabin Botsford, The Washington Post | Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, pictured in 2022, said they will vote for Vice President Harris in November.
POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS
DESPITE SOME SOBERING POLLS, Harris is netting support in unexpected places. Last week, Harris gained her biggest backing from a Republican to date when former Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) said that she would vote for Harris. Then Cheney said Friday that her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, also planned to vote for Harris. The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports Democrats and anti-Trump GOP groups say they are not expecting to make major inroads among Republicans, but hope to create a “permission structure” for moderate Republicans and center-right independents to vote for a Democratic candidate.
The younger Cheney on Sunday urged Republicans who oppose Trump but do not publicly back Harris to “take the extra step” and endorse the vice president.
“Given the closeness of this election, particularly if you’re going to find yourself voting in a swing state, you’ve got to take the extra step if you really do recognize the threat that Donald Trump poses,” she said on ABC News’s “This Week.” “Then it’s not enough to simply say, ‘I’m not going to vote for him.’”
▪ The Hill: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Cheney backing Harris: “Endorsements are not gonna make the difference in this race.”
▪ NBC News: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” said Harris reversed course on some policy positions she once favored but has not abandoned her ideals. “I think she’s trying to be pragmatic and doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election,” he said Sunday.
A key demographic where Harris is struggling? Male voters. New polls by CNN and The Hill show Harris has a major challenge in winning over male voters, and she’s losing men by a bigger margin than she’s winning women in key states, such as Pennsylvania. Even in California, a Democratic stronghold, the latest Hill/Emerson College poll shows Harris losing support among male voters, though she still maintains a sizable lead over Trump among California’s liberal-leaning men. In Ohio, Trump has a 26-point lead among men, far more than Harris’s 3-point advantage with women. And in Florida, Trump has a 12-point lead among men while Harris has a 2-point lead among women.
BEYOND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware will close out the 2024 congressional primaries on Tuesday.
In the Granite State, voters will pick their favorites to go head-to-head in the gubernatorial election to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Democrats are also closely watching the primary between former Biden official Maggie Goodlander and former New Hampshire Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern to replace retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.).
And in Delaware, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D) is running to replace Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) (who is favored in her race for the Senate) as the state’s at-large House member. She’s set to make history, not only in her state but across the country. If McBride wins her primary, and November’s election, she would become the first openly transgender member of Congress.
The Hill’s Caroline Vakil breaks down the races to watch on Tuesday.
The Hill: Independent candidate Dan Osborn is threatening to scramble the race for Nebraska’s Senate seat in what could be one of the more surprising contests this fall. “At some point, those of us who observe Nebraska politics are going to have to take seriously that this actually is a tight race,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
HOUSE PROSPECTS: Rep. Tony Gonzales’s (R-Texas) surprise dismal assessment of the House GOP’s odds of keeping the majority is frustrating his Republican colleagues, write The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell. The pessimism from Gonzales, fueled in part by frustration with dysfunction in the House GOP, comes as the party is facing fundraising pressure as Democrats see a wave in enthusiasm with Harris on the ticket. But it’s also at odds with other analyses of the House map. The latest Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)/The Hill election analysis forecast, updated last week, found that Republicans have a 56 percent chance of keeping control of the House.
“I love Tony, but you’re sitting in Texas wondering about what might happen,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told Punchbowl News. “It’s a totally different world when you actually go to the districts where these battleground races are being held.”
The Hill: The nonpartisan group Cook Political Report has shifted half a dozen House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans, as Democrats see their fundraising advantage and enthusiasm rise.
2024 Roundup
▪ Democrats say Harris’s decision to offer a more modest capital gains tax hike on the wealthy is a step in the right direction to win over voters concerned she’s too liberal or too antagonistic to business.
▪ Today, nonpartisan pro-democracy group Common Cause released its annual “Democracy Scorecard” ranking for the year, based on votes of House members on organization-endorsed legislation. Using those metrics, 117 House members have “perfect” scores (Rhode Island and Vermont congressional delegations in their entirety were scored as “perfect”). The organization’s fifth volume includes 148 lawmakers who earned “zero” ratings.
▪ Metro areas that had more votes for Trump in 2020 have experienced higher inflation since then. Here’s why and what that means for this election.
▪ Trump has a problem in Michigan: a county where Republicans can’t get along. Some party leaders in Macomb County refuse to follow the campaign’s ground strategy; “People should know what’s going on here.”
WHERE AND WHEN
The House meets at noon.
The Senate is in session at 3 p.m.
The president will begin his day in Delaware and fly with first lady Jill Biden to Washington, arriving at the White House at 12:45 p.m. Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 1:15 p.m. The president will speak at 5 p.m. from the South Lawn to mark the enactment of the Americans with Disabilities Act in 1990 and to celebrate Disability Pride Month.
The vice president begins her day in Pittsburgh and will arrive in Philadelphia at 5:40 p.m.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in the United Kingdom today and Tuesday and will open the U.S.-UK Strategic Dialogue.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.
ZOOM IN
CONGRESS
LAWMAKERS ARE BACK in Washington today after a lengthy summer break.
And there won’t be any time to get situated: members will immediately look to fund the government as the Sept. 30 shutdown clock ticks. While the coming November elections could lessen chances of a funding lapse, House Republicans are already preparing to square off against the Democratic-led Senate in what could be a messy, weeks-long fight over immigration and the budget.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is working to corral his conference around a plan to stave off a shutdown. The gambit — which Johnson has vowed to put on the floor “as soon as possible” — pairs a six-month continuing resolution with a bill to require proof of citizenship to register to vote, a strategy favored by hardline conservatives and Trump.
The House approved the SAVE Act as a standalone bill in July, clearing the legislation in a 221-198 vote with all Republicans and five Democrats backing the measure. That quintet of moderate Democrats, Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), is now coming under intense focus, as Republicans put pressure on the group to vote for the legislation again (The Hill).
But some in the GOP are warning not to make assumptions about how November’s elections will turn out. One House Republican told The Hill’s Aris Folley last week that they worry about leaving a complicated appropriations process to a brand-new Congress.
“You’re going to put brand-new members that just got elected on a really tough vote on an appropriations package when they don’t even understand the appropriations process,” the member said, noting Congress will also have to deal with the debt limit in January.
PRIORITIES: Ahead of the Senate’s return, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) circulated a letter to colleagues Sunday afternoon warning them of the looming funding deadline and highlighting rail safety legislation and proposals to lower the cost of insulin and prescription drugs as top priorities remaining in 2024 (The Hill).
Photo—Zoom-Admin-Biden&Cabinet:
© The Associated Press / Patrick Semansky | President Biden, pictured during a Cabinet meeting last year, has little more than four months to complete his presidency.
ADMINISTRATION
BIDEN IS CHARTING A COURSE for his final 140 days in office, ramping up his public appearances as he seeks to cement his legacy and support Harris’s White House bid. The president plans to be on the road regularly in the coming months to pursue additional strides toward student debt relief, lower housing costs and eliminating junk fees, the White House says. But The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Brett Samuels report the most important part of his legacy would be Harris’s victory over Trump.
UNFINISHED REGULATIONS: From heat protections for workers to restrictions on toxic chemicals, the Biden administration is set to leave several significant environment and health protections unfinished. Their fate now likely depends on the outcome of November’s election (The Hill).
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press / Ariana Cubillos | Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo González flew to Spain Sunday to seek asylum. He faces arrest warrants in Venezuela following the July elections, which the U.S. and other countries contest he won.
INTERNATIONAL
CEASE-FIRE EVER?: As Hamas and Israel both take tougher positions in negotiations, the White House is reassessing its strategy for a deal in Gaza as Biden’s top aides deliberate whether there is a point in presenting a new proposal. The latest obstacle — the abrupt introduction by Hamas of a new demand surrounding which prisoners Israel would release — underscores the frustrating nine-month process. At several points, the U.S., along with Qatar and Egypt, believed a deal was near, only for one of the sides to derail the talks with new demands that set negotiators back weeks or months (Axios and The Washington Post).
▪ The Hill: The United Nations is seeking a “full investigation” into the death of Aysenur Egzi Eygi, a Turkish American activist who was killed recently in the West Bank. The White House said Friday that the U.S. is “deeply disturbed” by the 26-year-old’s death.
▪ Reuters: The U.N. human rights chief on Monday asked countries to act on what he called Israel’s “blatant disregard” for international law in the occupied Palestinian territories.
▪ The Guardian: Iran has accused Israel of carrying out what it called a “criminal” attack in central Syria, where 18 people were reported to have been killed.
RUSSIA’S DEFENSE MINISTRY said Sunday that it seized the town of Novohrodivka in Ukraine. The military action comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for renewed peace negotiations. Scholz told German broadcaster ZDF he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and that they had both agreed on the need for a new peace conference that would also include Russia (Politico).
▪ The Associated Press: Romania and Latvia, two NATO members, said Sunday that Russian drones violated their airspace.
▪ The Economist: Danger in Donbas as Ukraine’s front line falters.
VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION candidate Edmundo González is seeking asylum in Spain, officials said on Sunday, amid a mounting crisis over the results of July’s election. González, who challenged authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro’s declaration of victory, faces arrest warrants in Venezuela. The U.S., European Union and several regional powers see González as the rightful winner of the election (NBC News).
The New York Times: At least 21 people were killed and more than 200 injured as Typhoon Yagi hit northern Vietnam this weekend.
OPINION
■ MAGA is nothing without Trump, by David French, columnist, The New York Times.
■ Trump’s best idea: Unleashing Elon Musk on government, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / Frank Franklin II | Italian tennis phenom Jannik Sinner defeated American Taylor Fritz in three sets Sunday to capture this year’s U.S. Open men’s singles trophy.
And finally … 🎾 Champions at the U.S. Open tennis extravaganza at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York this weekend were Italian phenom Jannik Sinner in Sunday’s three-set men’s final, and Aryna Sabalenka from Belarus, Saturday’s women’s singles victor in her first Open and third Grand Slam tournament.
Sinner cast aside doping allegations for which he was exonerated three weeks ago to dominate American Taylor Fritz to win his second Grand Slam title this year. The 23-year-old, ranked No. 1, captured the prize at this year’s Australian Open and reached the semifinals of the French Open and Wimbledon. Fritz was unable to end America’s humiliating, two-decade-long streak of losses by its male tennis stars to win the biggest tournament played on U.S. soil.
American Jessica Pegula lost to Sabalenka in straight sets, 7-5, 7-5.
The tournament finale attracted VIP spectators, including Musk, Taylor Swift, Matthew McConaughey, even Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), among a world tour of notable people in sunglasses. One celebrity roundup is HERE.
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