Morning Report — Taking the temperature of the 2024 race

by Kristina Karisch - 09/30/24 6:19 AM ET

In today’s issue:

Where Trump, Harris have an edge
VP candidates prepare to go toe-to-toe
Israel ramps up attacks on Hezbollah, Houthis
Congress’s end-of-year to-do list

Taking the temperature of the 2024 race

The Election Day countdown: 36 days until Nov. 5.

With just over a month until voters cast their ballots and polls predicting razor-tight margins, let’s check the pulse of this year’s historic, unpredictable and often dizzyingly fast presidential race. Vice President Harris and former President Trump remain close; as of this writing, Harris has a 4.2 percent lead nationally, according to polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.

But her broadly favorable polling results come with caveats, writes The Hill’s Niall Stanage. Harris’s 56 percent chance of winning, according to DDHQ, is little better than a coin flip. National poll results reassure Democrats that Harris’s initial rise was not a sugar high that is likely to meet an abrupt end — but Trump still holds an edge with voters on key issues, including the economy.

But wait, aren’t the polls often wrong? Not this time, say the pollsters, who caution against assuming this year’s surveys are susceptible to the same errors as previous ones (that often underestimated support for Trump). They argue that every election is different, and that this year’s polls paint an accurate picture of the race.

“We don’t always see the misses in the same direction,” said Chris Jackson, the senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos. “I think the methodological changes are significant enough that we shouldn’t necessarily take the 2016 and 2020 results as certain.”

BOB’S SMART TAKE: The good news for Harris is that she is winning most of the battleground states, albeit narrowly. The good news for Trump is that he can still win. This race is far from over.

Unlike President Biden, Harris has wisely embraced the underdog label, but the vice president is running like she is way up. In 2016, Hillary Clinton tried to coast to victory and Harris would be wise not to follow her lead.

The first time The Hill interviewed Trump at Trump Tower in 2015, the staff said we had 15 minutes. We asked tough but fair questions and the interview lasted 80 minutes. That was the first of four interviews we did with Trump in 2015 and 2016. Clinton never agreed to sit down with The Hill and other media outlets that cycle. Bottom line: Trump went for it while Clinton played it safe.

Harris’s rise in the polls has been impressive, though she’s gotten a big assist from the media. She won the first debate against Trump and aggressively challenged him to another debate. Trump has (so far) declined a rematch.

But many independent voters want to know more about Harris and how she would govern. Her media strategy has been too calculated and she has too often fallen back on talking points. (Have you heard she grew up in a middle-class family?)

Some Democrats are worried about Harris’s tentativeness and want her to pivot. Privately, they worry that Harris is following the Clinton playbook and that history will repeat eight years later.

KEY DEMOGRAPHICS AND ISSUES:

The economy: Polling agency Ipsos described the economy as “the single most important issue to Americans since April 2024” in a survey earlier this month. Trump has long had a lead on the issue, first over Biden, and then Harris. But surveys show the lead shrinking. Though the reasons for Harris’s gains are unclear, she has proven to be a stronger messenger than Biden on a host of issues and has excited Democrats and independents in a way the current president did not.

Abortion access: Democrats rode anger about the overturning of Roe to a surprise victory during the 2022 midterms. And the party has racked up more wins in competitive races since then, with their success in large part attributed to the lingering power of the issue.

Latino voters: The effects of inflation appear to have accelerated a shift of Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting in half a Democratic lead with a critical voting group, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.

The gender gap: One of the biggest fights this cycle is the battle for young, persuadable men of all races who appear to be less decidedly Democratic than they were four years ago. Meanwhile, Republicans acknowledge that Trump has a problem with women, but they say it’s not too late for the former president to change course in order to sway a critical voting bloc.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ In the wake of Hurricane Helene, at least 95 people have died across six states and officials believe there could be more. Many more remain missing as the rebuilding begins.

▪ American men in their 20s and early 30s are much more likely than female peers to live with their parents, and many say they feel aimless and isolated.

▪ The U.S. Navy is gearing up for a major war in the South China Sea by the end of the decade, reshaping military posture and structure as it aims to catch up to a larger Chinese naval force.

LEADING THE DAY

VEEP DEBATE: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will face off tomorrow night in the presidential race’s only vice presidential debate. The 9 p.m. EDT debate, hosted by CBS News, will take place in New York City. CBS anchor Norah O’Donnell and “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan will moderate. The candidates’ mics will not be muted, a departure from the two presidential debates.

In an incredibly close election year, the VP debate — likely the last debate of the cycle — will introduce many voters to the candidates’ running mates, and reemphasize what’s at stake in November.

Walz, a relative unknown before being added to the Democratic ticket, warned Harris in August about his debating track record. Now, aides said, the Minnesota governor is battling nerves ahead of Tuesday’s match-up, which will elevate him to the national spotlight.

“He’s a strong person,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who’s known Walz since they were each first elected to Washington in 2006. “He’s just not a lawyer-debater type. It’s not like he was dreaming of debates when he was in first grade.”

Vance is headed into the biggest test of his political career so far tomorrow as the first-term senator, regarded as a possible standard-bearer for the future of the MAGA movement, as he battles poor favorability numbers and ongoing scrutiny over his controversial statements and stances.

“Vance has been in the news so much, for a lot of not-always-positive things,” said Boston University professor Tammy Vigil. “He has an opportunity here to either try to change the narrative or reinforce the narrative.”

▪ The Hill: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) told Walz on NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday” to “put the human face” on Harris’s policies during the debate.

▪ The Hill: Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said on NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday” that Vance needs to “harp on the record” of the Biden administration.

▪ NPR: VP debates may alter a close race’s dynamic even when they don’t predict the winner.

BEYOND THE NATIONAL POLLS, experts are shining a light on key swing states that would help pave paths to victory in the Electoral College for Harris and Trump.

Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to keep Nevada from slipping away this cycle after narrowly winning it in 2020. The battleground state stands apart thanks to its uniquely transient and service sector-oriented population, as well as its large number of Latino voters. Trump has looked to put Harris on defense in the state, seeking to woo voters in the Las Vegas area in particular by pledging to end taxes on tips. Harris, meanwhile, held rallies in the state over the weekend. Experts agree the race will be close. Daniele Monroe-Moreno, chair of the Nevada State Democratic Party, said while she’s seen a shift in the poll numbers, “we’re not taking anything for granted.”

“I’m feeling good, but I don’t feel I’ve won it, you know?” she said. “I still feel we’re the underdog trying to make sure we get to that win.”

The Wall Street Journal: Harris needs to win over non-college-educated voters, who have gravitated toward Trump. Notoriously unpredictable Nevada could go either way.

In swing state Pennsylvania, the Ukraine vote could prove pivotal. Foreign policy is usually a low priority in presidential elections, but the Keystone State’s unique connection to, and investment in, U.S. support for Ukraine make it a major focus — and flashpoint — of the November contest. Vera Andryczyk is part of the estimated 1 percent of the state’s population that is of Ukrainian heritage, a small but significant number of voters in a state that Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 81,000 votes.

“I’ve encouraged at every fundraiser, every social meeting, I keep telling them, not only can you not vote for Trump, but you have to vote for the Democrat,” she told The Hill. “Because this is a very, very close election, and we cannot afford — Ukraine, the United States, the world — cannot afford another term.”

2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP

Harris-Walz schedule: Harris will return to Washington, D.C. for briefings on the ongoing impact of Hurricane Helene. Walz will participate in the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday.

Trump-Vance schedule: The former president will speak in Valdosta, Ga., which was affected by Hurricane Helene. Vance will participate in the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday.

Elon Musk has gone from a tech entrepreneur largely avoidant of politics to what strategists call a “megaphone” for right-wing views as an online surrogate for Trump in the race for the White House.

🏈 With “Coach Walz” as their VP pick, Democrats are embracing the political power of football.

Pro-climate government officials and environmental activists have had months to think about a strategy for preventing a second Trump presidency from disrupting their efforts. The main idea? Hope Harris wins.

Democrats have raised so much money since Harris took over the ticket that Republican strongholds like Idaho and West Virginia are starting to benefit from campaign cash.

Republicans are filing a barrage of election lawsuits in the final weeks of the campaign. The cases may be a road map for a legal battle over the results.

Former Republican Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) endorsed Harris over the weekend, praising the vice president’s grasp of foreign policy and her proposal for tougher border restrictions.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will convene for a pro forma session on Tuesday at 11 a.m.

The Senate will convene on Tuesday at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The president will speak about the administration’s continued response efforts to Hurricane Helene at 10 a.m. At 11:30 a.m., he will speak at an event on the South Lawn celebrating the 2024 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams. At 3 p.m., he will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

The vice president will return to Washington, D.C. from Nevada. In Washington, she will receive a briefing at the Federal Emergency Management Agency headquarters on Hurricane Helene and the federal actions being taken to support emergency response.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will speak at the State Department D-ISIS Ministerial. He will then meet with Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali al-Yahya, and later with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.

The White House press briefing is scheduled for 2 p.m.

Morning Report’s Alexis Simendinger will be back in your inboxes tomorrow.

ZOOM IN

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Israel stepped up its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend, further increasing fears that the Middle East could soon be engulfed in a regional war. Israel struck an apartment building in Beirut early today — the first time it has targeted the capital with an airstrike since hostilities with Hezbollah escalated almost a year ago.

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in a Friday strike in Beirut and pledged it would retaliate against Israel. In a statement, Biden said Nasrallah’s death was a “measure of justice.” The Israeli military announced Sunday it had killed Nabil Kaouk, a top Hezbollah official, in a “precise IDF strike.”

Hamas on Monday said that its leader in Lebanon, Fatah Sherif al-Amin, had been killed during an airstrike in the southern part of the country. Striking another Iran-backed militant group, Israel targeted Houthi fighters in Yemen on Sunday.

The Washington Post: Israel’s escalating war in Lebanon brings calamity to a fragile state. More than 1,000 people have been killed in two weeks of intensifying Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

The U.S. military said Sunday that it is increasing its air support capabilities in the Middle East and putting troops on a heightened readiness to deploy to the region as it warned Iran against expanding the ongoing conflict. The announcement came two days after Biden directed the Pentagon to adjust U.S. force posture in the region amid concern Nasrallah’s death could prompt Tehran to retaliate.

The weekend’s events have driven home how a defiant Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set the agenda from Gaza to Lebanon, with a frustrated Biden White House and other nations unable to shape events or defuse a spreading conflict in the region. Administration officials told NBC News they felt blindsided by the strikes, and key diplomats, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, spent last week pushing for a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon that Western leaders insisted was close. Blinken on Friday urged Israel to choose diplomacy, warning the alternative would lead to “greater instability and insecurity, the ripples of which will be felt around the world.”

“The choices that all parties make in coming days will determine which path this region is on with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come,” he said.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Hezbollah misjudged Israel’s weakness and Iran’s might. A succession of Israeli strikes have reset the military calculus in the Middle East, but it remains just as dangerous.

▪ The New York Times: Israel’s strike on Nasrallah was the culmination of several startling moves that suggest Netanyahu feels unconstrained by foreign criticism.

▪ The Washington Post: Visuals show Israel likely used U.S.-made 2,000-pound bombs in Nasrallah strike.

ELSEWHERE

CONGRESS IS IN RECESS, but lawmakers will face a laundry list of tasks once they return to Washington after the election. From Social Security to the filibuster, here’s a rundown.

Social Security: Legislation to reform some aspects of Social Security is gaining steam in Congress. The measure would do away with tax rules that proponents say have led to unfair reductions in benefits for those who have worked in public service for much of their careers. Critics warn about the price tag and prospect of misuse. Here are five things to know.

Farm bill: The stopgap farm bill is set to expire this week — and the coalition that the legislation has relied on for half a century is on the verge of breaking down. Negotiators are desperately racing against long odds to minimize the damage before benefits run out at the end of the year.

“Our farmers need [a deal],” House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), one of the signatories, told The Hill. “We are facing, by all metrics, a farm and food crisis that’s only going to get worse — unless we show some leadership and provide some hope and certainty.”

Russia: The bipartisan Helsinki Commission, charged with supporting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states, is pushing the U.S. to label Moscow as a “persistent” threat to global security. The report argues that Washington must reframe its thinking on Russia and allocate resources accordingly.

Filibuster: Senate Democrats concede there is considerable risk to doing away with the filibuster to codify abortion rights, but also suggest they are likely to try to do so if they get the chance in 2025. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) stressed that Democrats have no choice given how the chamber has been operating.

“As far as I’m concerned, we should be discussing the rules going forward,” he said. “We’re now in a dystopian situation in the Senate where we do very little, if any, legislating.”

OPINION

■ The Harris-Trump election shouldn’t be close. Here’s why it is, by Eugene Robinson, columnist, The Washington Post.

■ A Ukraine cease-fire might do more harm than good, by the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🌎 It’s one of science’s stranger discoveries: the Earth’s atmosphere is leaking, and for decades, scientists didn’t know why. But now there’s an answer.

The mysterious force causing an extremely fast flow of particles escaping into space? A previously undiscovered global electric field, according to a recent study. The field is only about the strength of a watch battery, but that’s enough to thrust lighter ions from our atmosphere into space. And it could provide clues about the evolution of our atmosphere, perhaps explaining why Earth is habitable.

“It’s unquestionably had an impact on the evolution of our atmosphere, but I can’t tell you what that is yet,” Glyn Collinson, a NASA rocket scientist and lead author of the study, told The Washington Post. “We just want the answer now, but we just discovered it.”

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