Morning Report — Vance, Walz face off amid cliffhanger contest

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 10/01/24 6:11 AM ET

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

In today’s issue:

How the VP debate might change the race
Hurricane wreckage stirs disaster-response politics
Israel launches ground operation in Lebanon
Voters brace for October surprise

Vice presidential debates in contemporary election cycles have tended to be the opposite of bruising cage matches and often duller affairs for live TV than the faceoffs between presidential nominees

Think illumination more than ticket elevation. But in this close election, anything could matter.

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Democrat Gov. Tim Walz have been rehearsing to deliver on tonight’s rule No. 1 — “Do no harm” — for all of 90 minutes.

Former President Trump, raising expectations for Vance’s performance while adding his own content for use by conservative outlets, told supporters he’ll do “PLAY BY PLAY” on his platform, Truth Social, during the event.

Moderated by CBS News journalists in New York City, the debate will broadcast and be simulcast by major news networks and platforms at 9 p.m. ET.

Economic and international policies staked out to date by Vice President Harris, who was a vice presidential candidate and debater in 2020, and Trump will likely dominate the back-and-forth between the Ohio senator and Minnesota governor in a contest that has shifted only slightly since August in six or seven battleground states that are ground zero for Electoral College victory in November.

BOB’S SMART TAKE:

Can Vance give Team Trump a much-needed boost?

The debate tonight between Vance and Walz probably won’t be a game changer, but the pressure is on the senator. Harris won last month’s debate against Trump, so the onus is on Vance to seize the momentum back that the Republican ticket had over the summer.

In 2012, Mitt Romney soundly defeated President Obama in their first debate. Nervous Democrats then looked to Joe Biden to make up for Obama’s shaky performance. Biden delivered, aggressively went after Paul Ryan in the vice presidential debate and the Democratic ticket coasted to reelection. Did the VP debate matter in the long run? No, though it was an important momentum shifter.

Vance and Walz are both skilled debaters, so it’s doubtful that either will be a knockout winner. Yet, Vance must hold his own and land some punches.

HEALTH POLICY: One topic that may get new scrutiny is health insurance. Harris’s campaign on Monday released what it bills as a version of the Trump-Vance health care plan, taking aim at Trump’s vow to repeal and replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act. Other related issues to watch for during the discussion tonight: abortion and reproductive rights, rising health care costs and medical debt.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ More interest rate cuts are ahead, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in remarks Monday.

▪ A dockworkers’ strike that began today and affects 36 ports from Maine to Texas could have economic and supply chain repercussions for consumers into the holidays.

▪ Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Hill / Frank Franklin II and Jose Luis Magana, The Associated Press

NO CLEAR FAVORITE: Harris and Trump are heading into October locked in a tight race with no clear front-runner, leaving both teams looking for how to break through. Polls show both candidates are largely stalled at a near tie in the critical swing states that will help determine the outcome of this election. So far, neither side has managed to move the needle with voters while bracing for an October surprise that could further shake up an unprecedented presidential race.

“Throughout the campaign, but especially in the final weeks, what candidates and their campaigns say matters and so does how they deliver that message,” said Adam Abrams, a communications official on Obama’s 2008 campaign. “The campaign apparatus is built for the home stretch to reach as many voters on as many channels as possible. In this case, we have a tale of two campaign messages, one with a message self-described as ‘dark,’ proposing violence, and another focused on the future and proposing ideas for how middle-class Americans can get ahead.”

After a few short months that have seen enough shocking events to fill an entire calendar year, what kind could possibly be looming in the final weeks?

LAW & ORDER? Trump at a Sunday rally called for “one real rough, nasty” and “violent day” of police retaliation in order to eradicate crime “immediately.” A campaign official said the former president’s remarks did not amount to a new policy proposal.

Meanwhile, Harris on a Monday podcast reaffirmed her support for legalizing marijuana, addressing the issue publicly for the first time since she became the Democratic nominee.

2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP:

In North Carolina, Democrat Kate Barr is running with all she’s got for a seat she can’t win. That’s the point.

Trump sparked yet another furor over the weekend when, in two separate rallies, he alleged Harris was “mentally impaired.” The false charge points to Trump’s continuing efforts to find traction with some personal attack on Harris.

Women from an insular North Carolina church — with a history of “blasting” members judged sinners — are helping to stage Trump’s campaign events.

Despite former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s own support for Trump, former state campaign chairs for Haley’s now-defunct presidential bid are increasingly coming out against the former president.

A state judge on Monday struck down Georgia’s six-week abortion ban, saying it violated the state constitution. The decision allows the procedure to be performed until the 22nd week of pregnancy.

WHERE AND WHEN

🎂 HAPPY 100th birthday to former President Jimmy Carter! The Hill’s Judy Kurtz recaps how the 39th president has packed so much into a century.

The House will convene a pro forma session at 11 a.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will receive at 11 a.m. a briefing about the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and the federal government’s response. The president will hold a virtual call at 1:15 p.m. with rabbis ahead of the Jewish High Holidays.

Candidate schedules this week: Harris has no public schedule today. Trump plans today to campaign in Waunakee, Wis., at 1:30 p.m. and hold a museum event in Milwaukee. Vance and Walz hold their first and only debate at 9 p.m. ET tonight on CBS News. Harris and Walz campaign jointly Wednesday during a bus tour through central Pennsylvania to focus on U.S. manufacturing. Trump will campaign in Saginaw, Mich., Wednesday at 3 p.m. Vance headlines a 1:30 p.m. event Wednesday in Auburn Hills, Mich., and another in Marne, Mich., at 5:30 p.m. local time. Trump will hold a town hall Friday at 7 p.m. in Fayetteville, N.C. Vance will campaign Friday in Lindale, Ga., at 1 p.m. The former president will return Saturday at 5 p.m. to Butler, Pa., the site of a gunman’s assassination attempt July 13.

First lady Jill Biden today leads the U.S. delegation in Mexico City at the inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, Mexico’s first female president.

The White House press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / NOAA

Harris left the campaign trail Monday to put her vice presidential disaster responsiveness on display in Washington as the death toll from last week’s massive Hurricane Helene exceeded 130. Trump focused a Georgia campaign event Monday on the wreckage left behind by the storm in the Peach State, in which polls indicate he has a narrow election lead against the vice president.

The Hill: Hurricane Helene scrambles politics in three battleground states.

President Biden — following Washington briefings with the Federal Emergency Management Agency about its response in at least seven states that received federal emergency declarations since Helene made landfall — announced he’ll travel to swing state North Carolina on Wednesday.

“It’s planned now. We’re going to be landing in Raleigh for a meeting with the Emergency Operations Center and I’ll then do an aerial tour,” he told reporters at the White House while accompanied by North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The president said he’ll also visit Georgia and Florida “as soon as possible” to survey damage.

Biden said Trump was “lying” when he suggested Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was “having a hard time getting the president on the phone,” adding it’s “irresponsible” of the former president to suggest to impacted residents and businesses that federal assistance is not headed their way.

“We will do everything in our power to help communities recover,” Harris added Monday.

The Hill: Trump seeks to put Harris on a back foot with hurricane response.

The White House noted that Harris consulted withKemp; Greenville, S.C., Mayor Knox White (R); and Savannah, Ga., Mayor Van Johnson (D). Harris also “reached out” to Tampa Mayor Jane Castor (D), who is among many mayors wrestling with severe flooding and other hurricane-related challenges.

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / Baz Ratner

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: The Israeli military said it launched “limited, localized and targeted raids” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, sharply escalating its offensive gainst the group days after killing its top leader in an airstrike in Beirut and heightening concerns of a wider war.

Israel said Tuesday morning that it launched a limited operation in villages in southern Lebanon near the border. Israel told Washington that its planned ground operation would be smaller than its last war against Hezbollah in 2006 and would focus on clearing out militant infrastructure. About a million people have been displaced across Lebanon amid the attacks, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Tuesday, adding that the nation “is facing one of its most dangerous stages in its history.”

▪ The Hill: Five pressing questions about the attacks.

▪ The Washington Post: A timeline of conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border.

Just days after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, White House officials told their Israeli counterparts they’re concerned that what starts as a limited operation could slide into something larger and longer-term. Biden was asked Monday if he was aware of, and comfortable with, Israel’s plans.

“I am more aware than you might know and I’m comfortable with them stopping,” he told reporters. “We should have a cease-fire, now.”

Hezbollah’s new acting leader on Monday pledged to keep fighting Israel and said the group was ready for any ground invasion after Nasrallah’s death last week. Deputy leader Naim Qassem said he knows “that the battle may be long,” but Israel will not achieve its goals.

▪ The Hill: Biden said he will speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu soon and said he thinks a broader war in the region “has to be” avoided.

▪ ABC News: While calling for cease-fires, the Biden administration faces diplomatic frustrations in Lebanon and Gaza.

▪ The New York Times: Additional forces in the Middle East, which one official placed at between 2,000 and 3,000, will bolster security for the 40,000 U.S. troops already in the region and help defend Israel.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Hamas’s top leader in Lebanon — killed in an Israeli airstrike Monday — was a high-ranking employee of the main United Nations relief agency serving Palestinians.

Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, whose last day on the job was Monday, told Politico that European leaders shouldn’t fear Trump if he wins the White House, they should work with him. The Norwegian will be replaced by former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte today, marking the end of 10 years at the helm of the alliance. He was the second-longest-serving chief in NATO’s history, extending his term when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

OPINION

■ A pollster’s warning: Beware 2024 election polls, by Douglas E. Schoen, opinion contributor, The Hill.

■ Pete Rose: 1941-2024, a Hall of Famer for sure — if it even matters now, by Rory Ryan, The Highland County (Ohio) Press.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Sarah Conard

And finally … 🐾 It’s National Black Dog Day. Celebrated each year on Oct. 1, it encourages the adoption of black dogs, which tend to move out of shelters more slowly than other mutts and purebred canines in search of their forever homes.

The special day celebrates all the very good boys and girls with dark coats who are up for adoption nationwide. To see if there’s a furry friend waiting near you, Petfinder has a database of local animal shelters and rescues.

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