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In today’s issue:
- Global conflicts seen in U.S. election
- Debate commission revival in 2028?
- Port strike on hold for more contract talks
- What to watch for in the jobs report
Conflict in the Middle East is heading toward a tipping point, and Washington is scrambling for de-escalation.
With the first anniversary of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza coming up next week, and Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah ramping up, diplomatic solutions pushed by President Biden, Vice President Harris and other Western leaders loom increasingly out of reach.
Israel continued attacks on three fronts onThursday and into this morning, with strikes in Lebanon, Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Tel Aviv is also weighing its options for retaliation against Iran, which launched its largest-ever assault on Israel on Tuesday in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Asked on Thursday if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden told reporters: “We’re discussing that.”
What Biden doesn’t support: an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. But The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell reports there is an understanding in Washington that Israel’s response will be stronger than when Tehran launched missile attacks in April, and defense hawks in the Republican Party say nuclear facilities are fair game.
Reuters: How could Israel strike back?
However Israel responds, its ongoing attacks on Lebanon and Gaza — coupled with airstrikes in the occupied West Bank — have put global hopes for a cease-fire firmly on ice. Establishing a truce has been a months-long goal for Biden, who has staunchly supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, but repeatedly stressed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the need to adhere to international norms to protect civilians and allow delivery of humanitarian aid.
A year later, the official number of Palestinians killed in Gaza exceeds 41,000, and much of the enclave faces a high risk of famine, while most of the population has been displaced. A cease-fire, drafts of which have been brokered over the past year by U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators, is nowhere in sight.
Asked by reporters Thursday how confident he is that full-scale war can be averted in the Middle East, Biden said he doesn’t “believe there is going to be an all-out war.”
“I think we can avoid it,” he said. “But there is a lot to do yet, a lot to do yet.”
The New York Times: A year after perhaps the worst military and intelligence debacle in Israel’s history, its armed forces have regained momentum. Some ask: to what end?
Delaying tactics? Senate Democrats increasingly suspect that Netanyahu is trying to interfere in U.S. domestic politics by aggressively confronting Hezbollah and making it clear there will be no cease-fire deal in Gaza weeks before the election, creating a political liability for Democrats. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports some Democrats, including Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), think that Netanyahu is trying to undermine the Biden-Harris administration.
“I don’t think you have to be a hopeless cynic to read some of Israel’s actions, some of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions, as connected to the American election,” Murphy said.
Former President Trump, meanwhile, has seized on the threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East to attack Biden and Harris, claiming the world is “spiraling” out of control under their watch.
BOB’S SMART TAKE: Foreign policy could decide the 2024 presidential election. While inflation and the economy are top of mind for most voters, the race between Harris and Trump might tip on the actions of a foreign actor.
The conflict in the Middle East has only gotten bigger over the last several weeks as Israel and Iran exchange firepower and aggressive rhetoric. Russia has floated using nuclear weapons on countries that are assisting Ukraine. Meanwhile, FBI Director Christopher Wray said earlier this year that the Chinese government poses a “broad and unrelenting” threat to U.S. infrastructure. U.S. adversaries know that the Harris-Trump race is extremely close and have meddled in our elections before.
A foreign policy controversy would likely help Trump, and Democrats are well aware of that. Hillary Clinton predicted earlier this week that an October surprise could hurt Harris. She claimed Russia, Iran and/or China could spearhead a massive disinformation campaign.
The Harris campaign would be wise to talk more about foreign policy because this election could swing on it.
What comes next? Israel has landed a string of blows against Hezbollah, leaving the group rattled and putting Iran on watch. But it’s less clear whether Israel has a workable strategy to achieve its declared goals — removing the threat of cross-border fire, targeting senior militant leaders and returning displaced Israelis to their homes.
Campaign watch: Vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will attend a summit next Thursday hosted by Emgage Action, a Muslim American advocacy group, as Harris works to win back Arab and Muslim American supporters disenchanted with her party’s policies surrounding the war in Gaza.
Trump on Monday will speak at an event with Jewish community leaders at his Miami golf club for the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks.
The Hill: House Democrats are bashing Israeli leaders over the expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:
▪ The 469-mile scenic Blue Ridge Parkway, which winds through the Appalachian Mountains in Virginia and North Carolina, is closed indefinitely because of post-hurricane and flooding damage assessments, the National Park Service says.
▪ Biden’s student loan cancellation policy experienced legal whiplash in Georgia and Missouri courts Thursday. The policy remains on hold.
▪ How can readers help those struggling in the Asheville, N.C., area after Hurricane Helene’s wrath? The Hill’s deputy managing editor Katie Wadington reports on the pluck and pathos of recovery and generosity in her community.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press / Julie Jacobson
THE PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES of the 2024 election cycle appear to be done. Morning Report’s Alexis Simendinger asked Frank Fahrenkopf for his take as the co-founder of the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. In May, campaigns sidelined the commission to negotiate directly with TV networks for debate dates, locations and rules. (Thursday’s interview was edited for length and clarity.)
Q. Journalists recently described the Commission on Presidential Debates, which you helped launch in 1987, as “a relic of the past,” perhaps to be mothballed “permanently.” What’s your reaction?
Fahrenkopf: We’re not going anywhere. We’re there. I expect that we’ll be back in four years.
But nothing can force a candidate to agree to debate. It took public pressure, it took the media and people who care about how it should be done to be supportive of the commission [in 1987]. If we don’t get support, I don’t think we’re going to be back.
We’re hoping people will determine it’s in the best interests to have the commission — or some entity like us — to represent the American people, not represent one candidate trying to get an edge over the other candidate. And that’s what they do when they get in these squabbles.
I think the American people have really been harmed from the standpoint of not getting enough evidence that they could make decisions as to who they voted for, based upon the positions of the candidates.
Debates not only educate the American people as to where candidates stand on issues that are important to them, but they learn something about the candidates, what kind of people they are, something about their character, something of their approach, how they deal with pressure.
What’s happened this year? The White House wanted to do the early debate in June. There were arguments over what the rules were going to be, and you know they changed the rules dramatically.
Since 1980 to the present, we’ve never had an election where there was only one debate between the presidential candidates who were going to be on the ballot in November. Now it looks like that’s what’s going to happen.
I indicated, I think very clearly, ‘Let’s look at this. You know, we’re not perfect.’ Can we learn anything from all of this?
The commission has made major changes over 30-plus years, for example, going to one moderator rather than having four people ask questions — a moderator who was to be a facilitator, not to get involved in arguments with the candidates or fact-checking.
I was very pleased with the vice presidential debate we just had. The two candidates [Ohio Sen. JD Vance (R) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D)] treated each other with dignity and they argued back and forth about issues, the way it should be.
But CBS had a two-minute [limit for answers] and one-minute response. You can’t talk about the economy, inflation, what’s going on at the border in five minutes. In the commission system, there are blocks of 15 minutes and you can dig down. You get more information. So, that was missing.
And the networks and campaigns have lost the most popular debate format, according to Americans. That’s the town hall meeting. And they did away with college campus [site] involvement, which spreads to other schools and develops special programs to follow the debates.
There’s another problem. To be invited under past rules, candidates had to be at 15 percent in five polls and be on a sufficient number of state ballots to conceivably reach 270 electoral votes. On the date of CNN’s [June 27] debate, only seven of 50 states had completed their ballots. Joe Biden and Donald Trump hadn’t been nominated yet.
There’s another factor in this. You better believe that the networks jumped in here. Why? Because they can have ads. That’s why they jumped in so quickly: ‘Let’s run this thing and we take breaks in the debate to run ads to make money.’
We’re talking about electing the leaders of our country for the next four years. Should we really be running ads in the middle of a debate where the American people are trying to learn about the candidates and what their positions are? I really think that’s not in the public interest.
Q. TV news and live broadcasting platforms are evolving as we speak, driven in large measure by financial imperatives. How do you think such rapid change will affect presidential debates in 2028?
Fahrenkopf: Your question is right on. Who the hell knows what it’s going to look like four years from now, with the distribution of news and so forth? But I think that’s why the commission, for years now, has been working with those other platforms, because we know things can occur.
WHERE AND WHEN
The House will convene a pro forma session at 3:30 p.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 10 a.m.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 11 a.m. Biden has no public schedule.
Economic indicator: The Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. will issue its jobs report for September. Unemployment was 4.2 percent, according to the August report.
Candidate schedules this week: Harris today will campaign in Detroit and Flint, Mich. Trump will receive a hurricane damage briefing in Evans, Ga., in the afternoon. He will hold a town hall at 7 p.m. in Fayetteville, N.C. Vance will campaign in Lindale, Ga., at 1 p.m. Trump will return Saturday at 5 p.m. to Butler, Pa., the site of a gunman’s assassination attempt July 13. Walz will fundraise Saturday in Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio. He’ll travel to California and Washington over the weekend to headline fundraisers.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press / Alejandro A. Alvarez, The Philadelphia Inquirer
PORTS STRIKE ON PAUSE: The union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports reached a deal Thursday to suspend this week’s walkout through Jan. 15 to allow more time to negotiate a new contract with port operators. The agreement suspended a strike that could have had serious consequences for the U.S. economy and posed political issues for Biden and Harris, who stood staunchly behind the striking workers.
Experts projected the strike could have cost the U.S. economy $5 billion per day as imports such as food, auto parts, furniture and other key goods remained sealed in containers. Biden on Thursday praised the International Longshoremen’s Association and U.S. Maritime Alliance “for coming together to reopen the East Coast and Gulf ports.”
“I congratulate the dockworkers from the ILA, who deserve a strong contract after sacrificing so much to keep our ports open during the pandemic,” he said. “And I applaud the port operators and carriers who are members of the US Maritime Alliance for working hard and putting a strong offer on the table.”
ABORTION: Some Republicans running in the most competitive House seats are adopting a label that was nearly extinct in their party: pro-choice. The terminology marks some of the biggest changes in how the Republican Party is approaching abortion and reproductive issues that have challenged the party electorally since Roe was overturned, reports the Hill’s Emily Brooks. But it is also frustrating Democrats and reproductive rights advocates who accuse Republicans of trying to redefine the term without fully supporting abortion rights — and in some cases, supporting legislation that could limit access to it.
Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) wrote “I am pro-choice” in a post on the social platform X this month — adding he is “proud to support multiple IVF bills.” A campaign manager for Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-N.J.) said he “is pro-choice with over twenty years of votes supporting IVF and women’s rights.” Matt Gunderson, the GOP challenger to Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), is calling himself pro-choice in a much wider sense.
“On women’s right to choose, I am pro-choice. I believe abortion should be safe, legal, and rare. I don’t want politicians dictating health care for my daughters,” Gunderson said in a campaign ad.
Another pro-choice Republican: In a break from her husband, former first lady Melania Trump said in her upcoming memoir that she is a passionate supporter of a woman’s right to control her own body — including the right to abortion.
2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP:
Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wis.) joined Harris on Thursday in Ripon, Wis. — known as the birthplace of the GOP — to campaign against Trump. Trump during an interview with Fox News in Saginaw, Mich., bashed Cheney and Harris. “I think they hurt each other,” he said. “I think they are so bad, both of them.”
“Election interference” returns as a Trump mantra during his campaign events and social media posts.
The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are concerned that “election-related grievances,” such as a belief in voter fraud, could motivate domestic extremists to engage in violence in the weeks before and after the election.
Here are five key takeaways from special counsel Jack Smith’s detailed road map to his federal 2020 election subversion case against Trump.
Embattled New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) is fighting for his political life amid corruption allegations, raising questions about how much longer he can hold on to power. “At this point, it’s only a matter of time before he’s forced to resign,” a Democratic strategist predicted.
In a bipartisan survey of 50 members of the D.C. legal establishment, many warn that Trump could follow through on his threats to prosecute his political adversaries.
It’s not 2016 again: Harris is taking a significantly different approach to fellow Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the final stretch of the presidential campaign.
Former President Obama will start a campaign swing for Harris in the Pittsburgh area on Oct. 10. The former president is then expected to travel to other battleground states in the days leading up to the election.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press / Charlie Neibergall
ECONOMY: Not too cold, not too hot. Employment data released by the Labor Department Thursday cheered some analysts who await this morning’s federal jobs report for September.
CNBC: Here’s everything to expect today from September data.
Claims filed last week for unemployment benefits hinted at a tamer labor market without precipitous declines for workers. Economists and investors are alert to any new evidence that a cooling labor market signals a soft landing for the economy and future reductions by the Federal Reserve in its benchmark interest rates.
There were 225,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending Sept. 28 compared with a revised 219,000 a week earlier. The initial claims figure is up slightly from earlier this year, but still at a modest level historically. But the data does not reflect the multi-state catastrophes caused by Hurricane Helene.
OPINION
■ We must curtail the presidential pardon power in case Trump wins, by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), opinion contributor, The Hill.
■ Beware Republican groupthink on Israel’s retaliation against Iran, by Andreas Kluth, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / Eric Draper
And finally … 👏👏👏 Congratulations to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! We asked for smart guesses about the political phenomenon known as the “October surprise” and readers delivered.
Here’s who went 4/4: Joe Atchue, Lynn Gardner, Donald R. Walko Jr., Mark Schauer, Pam Manges, Tim Burrack, Jay Kucia, Loren (Taylor) Gibson, Suhruth Sribhasyam, Ned Sauthoff, Carmine Petracca, Rick Schmidtke, Stan Wasser, Jerry Alaimo, Richard E. Baznik, Paul Quillen, Linda Kavalsky, Frank Garza, Barbara Golian, Carmine Petracca, Tom Chabot, William D. Moore, Terry Pflaumer, Robert Bradley, John Ciorciari, Randall S. Patrick, Susan Reeves, Luther Berg, Steve James, Harry Strulovici and Linda L. Field.
Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton this week described her October surprise experience involving a false “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory that went viral close to Election Day.
Republican nominee Ronald Reagan and advisers were accused of trying to thwart the possibility that then-President Carter would boost his reelection chances in October 1980 with release of American hostages held by Iran.
Days before the 2000 presidential election, a Democratic source in Maine confirmed to a reporter that GOP presidential nominee George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in that state in 1976 at age 30. Bush confirmed his DUI conviction.
A month before the 2016 election on the first Friday of October, a previously unaired video of then-celebrity Donald Trump obtained by a national newspaper showed him lewdly bragging about kissing and groping women. The video became known as the “Access Hollywood” tape.
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