Morning Report

Morning Report — Who will lead the GOP in the next Congress?

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

In today’s issue:

Two weeks out from Election Day, Republican leaders in the House and Senate are already eyeing potential leadership shake-ups for the 119th Congress.

IN THE HOUSE, Republicans are bracing for potential changes in the coming weeks, a postelection scramble that will heavily depend on who wins control of the lower chamber and White House. The biggest wildcard is Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). The Louisiana Republican has said he wants to continue to lead the House GOP conference if they retain the majority but has been mum on his plans if Democrats take the upper hand in the lower chamber.

The dominant view among Republicans is that Johnson would not remain atop the House GOP conference if it is relegated to the minority. Some lawmakers say members of the Speaker’s leadership team could also lose their positions in that scenario.

“If we lose the majority, there will be [a] leadership shake-up,” one House Republican said, adding that the status of Johnson’s deputies would be “questionable.”


To note: Johnson is ruling out a deal with Democrats to keep his gavel next year, Axios reports. 

Amid that uncertainty, House GOP members have their eye on the next moves from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). And hanging over the leadership conversation is former President Trump, whose support could tip the scales. 

In conversations with The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Emily Brooks, nearly two dozen Republicans — including lawmakers, aides and operatives — said next year’s House GOP leadership lineup remains up in the air, with the party squarely focused on expanding their majority and putting Trump back in the White House. Plenty of people, however, appear to be angling for a position. 

“I don’t know what the chess board’s going to look like,” said one House Republican. “But I definitely think there are some people who are trying to make some moves.”

Punchbowl News: Scalise on his plans if the GOP wins big in November.

SMART TAKE FROM THE HILL’S BOB CUSACK:

Who will be the top House Republican next year?

It’s a straightforward question, but the answer is somewhat complicated. Johnson has repeatedly said his goal on Nov. 5 is to not only hold, but grow, the GOP’s narrow majority.

Pundits are divided over who will have the Speaker’s gavel next year, and we may not know which party will be running the House for a while after Election Day. Johnson has the toughest job in Washington and deserves to stay on if they retain the majority — especially after all the chaos of the last two years. However, it’s a good bet that Johnson will not be minority leader in 2025.

When House Republicans disappoint at the ballot box, the top Republican usually bows out. Democrats are different. In 2010, Republicans won an astounding 63 seats, but Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) won her race for minority leader. Fourteen years later, she helped push President Biden out as the 2024 nominee.

Should House Democrats win this fall, look for Jordan and Scalise to make moves for minority leader. And they may have company.

IN THE SENATE, some Republicans are turning to Trump for input. They want the former president to play an influential role in electing the next Republican leader as they hope for a dramatic break in style and goals after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) record-setting 18-year run. 

Right now, it appears that Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) is the frontrunner to succeed McConnell, though Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the former whip and a prodigious fundraiser, might be able to edge him out for the top job. But senators tell The Hill’s Alexander Bolton that if Trump wins the election, he could dramatically shake up the race by throwing his political weight behind an outsider candidate.

“It’s important no matter who’s president … to have a good working relationship with the president. That’s just completely obvious. I think it’s extremely important,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who argues that Trump’s endorsement would be a major factor and backs outsider candidate Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who is in a competitive bid for reelection in the Sunshine State. 

“He’s going to be the president of the United States. If we’re in the majority, he’s basically driving the bus. We’re the deckhands,” Johnson said. “We’re going to have to implement the things he’s directing us in terms of what he wants to accomplish.”

Politico: Brace yourself: A wave of crypto-friendly lawmakers is about to crash Congress.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY: 

▪ Falsehoods: Misinformation is everywhere this election. Take this eight-question Washington Post quiz to see if you can tell what’s real.

▪ Purchases: Starbucks’ consumer traffic fell 10 percent in its locations in North America and the company’s same-store sales slid for the third consecutive quarter.

▪ Red ink: The federal deficit will continue to be debated in Washington. At $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, the deficit reached the third highest level on record and rose 8 percent from the previous fiscal year. Added: $1.16 trillion in interest. U.S. debt reached $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press | Alex Brandon

Democrats are feeling a little queasy about whether Vice President Harris will win against Trump and they worry Republicans are poised to gain more Senate seats than expected, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports. 

The jittery Harris campaign knows that a majority of voters describe the country as on the wrong track, place their financial and economic worries at the top of their concerns, and by slight margins see Trump, 78, as today’s change agent who was narrowly defeated by Biden in 2020.

The Harris campaign believes it has the edge over the Trump campaign’s ground operation, thanks to months of precinct-by-precinct organizing and planning that is constantly being adjusted based on early vote and online data, CNN reports. With deadlocked polling in some battleground states and less than two weeks to round up microclusters of persuadable voters, the campaign is using technology, targeted messaging and surrogate influencers to reach them and nudge them to the polls.

“We’re not throwing spaghetti against the wall. We have literally studied who these voters listen to,” said a campaign official.

In Michigan, where both campaigns have spent money and energy and the candidates have been ever-present, Democrats fear there are cracks in the “blue wall.” They worry Trump may defeat Harris in Wisconsin, and fret that North Carolina could slip into the Trump column, NBC News reports.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, she would not reach the necessary 270 needed to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two. 

“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan, which Biden narrowly carried in 2020, thanks to union households. Others familiar with the vice president’s campaign strategy also expressed concern to NBC about Michigan.

But campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt pushed back on NBC’s sources. “We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” she countered. “We think we will win Michigan.”

Democrats are increasingly glum as Senate incumbents in swing states duke it out with challengers, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports. Democrats are dealing with nip and tuck races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which the Cook Political Report shifted from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” That’s despite Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), elected in 2006, and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) holding sizable leads through much of the cycle. 

“This is never going to be easy,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told reporters at the Capitol Tuesday. “But I believe these races are essentially tied. … To me, it feels like it’s 50-50 all the time.” 

▪ Hill’s Niall Stanage in The Memo:What we know, and what we don’t, about early voting numbers. Some states are tallying record early ballots and more Republicans are participating ahead of Nov. 5.

▪ The Hill: The end-of-election travel schedules of Harris and Trump say much about the state of a razor-thin race.

2024 CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP:

U.S. intelligence officials on Tuesday said Russians seeking to disrupt the U.S. elections created a faked video and other material smearing Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz with abuse allegations and are considering stoking violence during and after the vote.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Trump ally, must relinquish his assets within a week to two Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation lawsuit against him, U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman ruled Tuesday. The judge granted the mother-daughter duo authority to sell items, including Giuliani’s New York apartment, a Mercedes-Benz and luxury watches, among other items, to partially fulfill the judgment.

In The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg, writes about Trump’s deepening preoccupation with dictators and his disdain for the American military: “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.” And The New York Times has an interview with former Trump White House chief of staff John Kelly, who cites his experience with the former president to argue he met the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator, and had no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.

Democratic candidates are warning voters about threats to democracy ahead of Election Day. That topic is important to voters, but slightly less top of mind than the economy, polls show.

The vice president, during an NBC News interview Tuesday, defended the president, listed some of his governing accomplishments and expressed “no reluctance” while relating that she’d seen nothing ahead of his “bad” debate with Trump that concerned her about Biden’s ability to lead. She said Americans are “absolutely” ready for a female president of color. “I will never assume that anyone in our country should elect a leader based on their gender or their race,” she told NBC.

Election night: Harris plans to watch returns on Nov. 5 in Washington, D.C. Depending on election results, the timing of the outcome and related situations, her campaign is eyeing various settings during her public remarks, NBC News reports. One option: Howard University, the Democratic nominee’s alma mater. 

Elon Musk has used his social media platform to communicate directly with members of Congress dozens of times in the months running up to the election, which experts say is akin to lobbying even if it doesn’t meet the legal definition.

WHERE AND WHEN

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press | Lindsey Wasson 

STRIKING BOEING MACHINISTS will vote today on a tentative contract with the company, which would put to rest a five-week strike but not questions about the company’s future. The strike cost the company and shareholders billions of dollars, and newly minted Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg announced the company would be laying off 10 percent of its workforce to try to get Boeing back on solid financial footing. 

While Boeing is almost certainly too big to fail, the company has taken reputational and regulatory hits this year since the door of a Boeing 737 Max blew off during an Alaska Airlines flight in January. Even if Boeing and the union are able to conclude the costly strike, The Hill’s Taylor Giorno writes that the question remains: Where does Boeing go from here? 

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press | Nathan Howard, Reuters

AID FOR GAZA: Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel on Tuesday to press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on increasing aid to Gaza. U.S. officials warned that Israeli actions are causing conditions there to rapidly deteriorate and, if they are not reversed, could risk U.S. military support. Blinken, in his hours-long meeting with Netanyahu, “emphasized the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

More than 40,000 people have died in Gaza since Israel’s war against Hamas began last October, and much of the enclave remains displaced.

Hezbollah launched missiles at an Israeli military base on the outskirts of Tel Aviv for the second straight day today. As air raid sirens went off, Blinken was directed to shelter at a luxury hotel in Tel Aviv where he had stayed the night.

▪ The Guardian: Israel has confirmed the killing of the presumed next leader of Hezbollah in an airstrike on southern Beirut earlier in October.

▪ The New York Times: Israel has decimated Hamas’s military wing, along with much of Gaza. But the group’s small-scale, hit-and-run approach poses a threat in the enclave’s north.

▪ The Hill: An apparent U.S. intelligence breach related to Israel’s plans to strike Iran has unsettled the intelligence community and sent the Biden administration scrambling to determine if it came from a hack or an internal leak. 

▪ Reuters: U.S. officials have told their Indian counterparts they want more accountability after their investigation into Indian involvement in a foiled murder plot against a Sikh activist in the United States.

OPINION 

■ How the media can escape a doom loop of mistrust, by Bill Keller, Bloomberg Opinion contributor for the series, “Republic of Distrust.”

■ Voters prefer Harris’s agenda to Trump’s — they just don’t realize it, by Catherine Rampell and Youyou Zhou, columnists, The Washington Post.

THE CLOSER 

© The Associated Press | John Duricka 

And finally … On this day in 1987, the Senate rejected Robert Bork‘s nomination to the Supreme Court by a bipartisan vote of 58-42. The rancor spawned a new era of partisan paybacks with high court nominations. It also inspired a new political verb: “borked.”

Known as a charming and witty man in private, Bork was dour and humorless in public, and his confirmation hearings seemed to play into the stereotype liberals were painting of a man who cared little for the public. Bork’s nomination was eventually defeated by the largest margin in history, and the episode cemented “borked” as a new term. The verb is defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as “to defame or vilify a person systematically.”

“The nomination changed everything, maybe forever,” Tom Goldstein, publisher of SCOTUSblog, told NPR. “Republicans nominated this brilliant guy to move the law in this dramatically more conservative direction. Liberal groups turned around and blocked him precisely because of those views. Their fight legitimized scorched-earth ideological wars over nominations at the Supreme Court, and to this day both sides remain completely convinced they were right. The upshot is that we have this ridiculous system now where nominees shut up and don’t say anything that might signal what they really think.”

The upshot: Bork’s hearing defined the tone of subsequent Supreme Court confirmation processes, and if Trump wins the White House in November, future nominations to the conservative high court would mean high-stakes battles. GOP senators anticipate that Trump would have at least one Supreme Court vacancy to fill if he wins another four years. Democrats hope that prospect motivates their voters.

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We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger (asimendinger@digital-staging.thehill.com) and Kristina Karisch (kkarisch@digital-staging.thehill.com). Follow us on social platform X: (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

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