Briefly after the 2008 Republican National Convention in Minnesota, polls showed a sudden resurgence of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the presidential race against Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin had given a convincing acceptance speech, many of the attacks on Mr. Obama were starting to land, and McCain the war hero was looking like a maverick who could draw independent voters despite the manifold failures of the Bush administration.
It was a dead cat bounce.
In Wall Street terms, a dead cat bounce is when a stock plunges so deeply, it hits a false bottom and suddenly looks like it has a shot of coming back before plunging again.
The theory comes from the idea that when you drop a cat from a great height, it will bounce up before falling back down.
McCain’s August resurgence was a dead cat bounce.
In 2018, House Republicans had pulled even in the generic polls in September, but the anti-Donald Trump fundamentals were so strong, there was no way for Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to keep his Speaker’s gavel (not that he really wanted to keep it).
As they gathered on the West front steps of the Capitol in September of 1994, there was little inkling that Republicans were set for a giant sweep that November. Sure, the GOP had some momentum and President Clinton had certainly overreached when he governed far from the left, but Republicans hadn’t won the majority in 40 years. Democrats celebrated as they passed the first major gun control legislation in history, and they felt that they had kept faith with the far left of the party.
I think we are now in a period of the dead cat rising up and giving Democrats false hope about their chances this November.
The generic polls slightly favor the Republicans, seen as a positive by liberal partisans who were staring down some pretty gruesome numbers only a couple months ago. The president’s approval ratings aren’t as atrocious as they once seemed, just pretty atrocious. And the Democrats are very pleased by the rush of legislative accomplishments, including bipartisan chip legislation that seem to be especially good for the red states of Ohio and Texas (where the bulk of new chip jobs will be created).
But to misquote Crystal Gayle, the legislation ain’t going to turn those red states blue.
The Inflation Reduction Act is the latest labor of love from the Democrats, set to be signed into law by the president as soon as this week. But what will this legislation do exactly? It won’t reduce inflation, if you believe Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). It won’t necessarily spur a whole bunch of new EV car manufacturing — because the legislative text is so poorly written, few of the manufacturers can take advantage of it. The drug pricing part of the bill won’t lead to a significant reduction in drug pricing for most seniors. The bill doesn’t even properly tax the wealthy, as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) successfully spared the richest among us.
It is behind this battle standard that the Democrats are plunging into their campaigns this fall. They, of course, are also hopeful that abortion politics will rise to the top of everybody’s list for the fall, and undoubtedly among the most committed Democrats, abortion has been and continues to be their top issue.
But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and among most voters, crippling inflation, recession worries, out-of-control crime and a porous border that has led to a drug overdose crisis and a flood of illegal immigrants are far more relevant.
There is also a sense that Joe Biden is too old for his job, that his administration has leaned far too left for the taste of most independent voters, and that bringing a greater sense of checks and balances would be a good thing to do for the country. There is also the COVID-19 hangover, which still riles up parents across the country and makes them want to vote for freedom and the GOP.
Will Republicans sweep the House by 40 or 50 seats? That would give them historically unprecedented numbers that would most likely give Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) more headaches than any legislative leader should have to deal with.
Sam Rayburn used to say he would rather have a one-seat majority than a hundred-seat majority. Easier for keeping discipline and keeping the troops in line.
I don’t know what Mr. Sam ever said about cats, but my guess is he would tell you to be careful about the August dead cat bounce. It happens just about every election year, and it can happen in 2022.
Feehery is a partner at EFB Advocacy and blogs at thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), as communications director to former House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).