Crowded GOP field won’t save Trump — because it won’t last

All the punditry thinks a big field will help Trump beat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but the polling they think supports that superficial analysis is wrong. What polling and history really says is the Republican field will shrink fast and DeSantis would gain an advantage. In fact, the Republican nomination fight might not be much of a fight at all. DeSantis could knock Trump out early.

Why? Two reasons: First, the structure of the Republican process is built to force out nuisance candidates. Second, when you remove the chaff from the GOP contest and ask Republican voters to choose between DeSantis and Trump, DeSantis mops up almost all the extra votes, leaving Trump trailing.

GOP candidate cull

Republicans and Democrats have very different approaches to their nominating process. Republicans give significant delegate bonuses to candidates who win primaries and have several winner-take-all contests. Finishing a close second gets you little; third place puts you on the fringe, and fourth is death. Democrats mostly have a proportional system where second and third place candidates can still accumulate delegates and hang around the race.

The upshot is that the Republican field is quickly culled to just three and then two candidates. The eventual nominee is often known by the fourth contest and settled after the first Super Tuesday. The no-hopers might hang on for a bit of publicity or to feed their consultants, but if you are sitting in third after South Carolina, it’s over.

Ever since the parties have held real presidential primaries, the Republican field has effectively been down to three or fewer candidates after New Hampshire every election. Outside of 2016, the only year a multi-way field made it to the first Super Tuesday was 2008.

But even this history is generous to the third wheels. In several years, Iowa or New Hampshire gave life to struggling candidacies that flamed out. Iowa gave upset wins to George H.W. Bush (1980), Bob Dole (1988), Mike Huckabee (2008), Rick Santorum (2012) and a near-miss for Pat Robertson (1988). New Hampshire surprised for Pat Buchanan (1996) and McCain (2000). In each case, the eventual nominee was still able to poll well and overwhelmed his opponents.

Also-rans tended to win by out-organizing their opponents in Iowa or had built-in support in New Hampshire. In 2008 Mike Huckabee was able to extend his campaign by using his regional appeal and win South Carolina. Newt Gingrich was able to do the same in 2012, but could only muster a win in home-state Georgia the rest of the way. Santorum snagged a couple of caucus wins in very conservative states in 2012 — but couldn’t even win his native state of Pennsylvania.

That history is not good for Republican hopefuls not named DeSantis or Trump. Haley polls behind Trump in her home state by over 30 points (and behind Sen. Tim Scott). New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is behind DeSantis and Trump in his own state — and what happens after the Granite State votes anyway? The rest of the potential candidates have a long wait for any hometown boost.

Perhaps Iowa offers some fertile ground for an evangelical like Mike Pence. But out-organizing Trump and DeSantis seems like a tall order. At best Pence might get a surprising second, but margin of error puts his polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina possibly at zero.

Trump definitely benefits from a crowded Republican field, but only if it stays crowded — and it won’t. After South Carolina it will be DeSantis and Trump. Others may hang around, but historically their vote percentages collapse to nothing once GOP voters know they have no chance.

Trump’s falling glass ceiling

If Trump could pick up even a third of the votes spread among the various no-hopers, he would be in good shape. But Trump picks up very little once pollsters move to a DeSantis v. Trump ballot test. Several recent polls from the media and consulting firms have a lot of bad news for Trump.

The only good poll for Trump is Harvard-Harris where Trump goes from a 46 percent to 23 percent lead in a crowded field to a 56 percent to 44 percent lead heads-up against DeSantis. But Harvard-Harris is pretty much on a lonely island.

GOP firm OnMessage (1,000 sample) polls Trump even in a full field, but down a whopping 18 points head-to-head. Monmouth (566 sample) also has Trump tied in a multi-way field, falling to a 13-point deficit heads-up. In Yahoo News (453 sample), Trump moves from a 2-point lead to a 4-point deficit. Democratic pollster PPP (446 sample) is more favorable to Trump where he goes from a 6-point lead to a 1-point disadvantage.

Inexplicably, Quinnipiac chose to poll a big field and a 4-way field with Pence and Haley. Narrowing the field shifted 1 percent to Trump and 5 percent to DeSantis with Pence and Haley splitting 10 percent. Heads-up would likely put Trump behind. Two recent state polls by Remington Research bolster the national results. In their Kansas and Missouri polls, DeSantis beats Trump head-to-head by 10-points in Kansas and 7-points in Missouri. Echelon Insights has DeSantis over Trump by 5-points in Michigan, heads up.

Given that Trump has essentially 100 percent name recognition, it should not be surprising that Republicans not for Trump now would be less likely to move to him if their favorite minor candidate is out of the mix. But Trump is picking up practically nothing. On average, DeSantis gains 14 points and Trump gains less than 4, outside the Harris poll.

No 2016 repeat

The big difference between the 2016 field and 2024 is Trump faced two candidates in 2016 (Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida) who were strong enough to stay but not strong enough to knock the other out. Sore loser John Kasich of Ohio did his best to gain anti-Trump votes, shaving enough off to throw a few states to Trump. That dynamic does not exist for 2024.

In fact, if the polling dynamic holds up – Trump stuck in the low 40s and DeSantis picking up the vast majority of the dropout votes — DeSantis might just steamroll over Trump after South Carolina. The 2024 GOP primary contest looks less like Trump repeating 2016 than a “Back to the Future” set in 1980 with DeSantis in the role of Ronald Reagan and Trump as George H.W. Bush.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.