The ink is barely dry on the global climate agreement just hammered out in Dubai, but already it’s being hailed as historic. For the first time in three decades of international climate meetings, world leaders agreed that there must be an explicit focus on transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner.
Given that fossil fuels are the main cause of the climate crisis, it’s shocking that it took international negotiators this long to get to the root of the problem. But progress delayed is still progress, and this agreement should be celebrated — and then implemented.
So what would it mean for President Biden to lead on the Dubai transition?
In short, everything.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world must reduce oil and gas production by 20 percent over the next six years, and by almost 80 percent by 2050, if we have any hope of averting climate disaster.
That can’t happen without dramatic action from the United States, which accounts for roughly 20 percent of all oil, and 24 percent of all gas produced. If there’s any chance of saving the planet, the United States needs to begin phasing out fossil fuels immediately.
The best and quickest way to do that is by immediately halting the buildout of new fossil fuel infrastructure, especially liquified natural gas facilities.
Although LNG terminals line our coasts, they don’t serve U.S. interests. One hundred percent of the gas they produce is shipped overseas, which drives up the price of electricity and home heating here at home.
What’s worse, export terminals bring considerable risk to the people living near them. Building them requires bulldozing the coastline, which destroys natural defenses against hurricanes and flooding, and makes climate disasters even more severe. The terminals also emit high levels of toxic pollution, which has been linked to higher rates of cancer, asthma and other respiratory illnesses.
Despite the fact the U.S. has outsized responsibility for heating our planet, the Biden administration, the Department of Energy, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission keep approving gas export terminals at a blazing pace. Since 2022, 24 more terminals and expansions have been proposed or approved. Just one of these terminals would drive the U.S. over the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 Celsius limit that is essential to avoiding extreme and irreversible climate effects. Twenty-four are catastrophic. Now that the U.S. has agreed to the Dubai transition, President Biden must use every tool in his toolbox to phase out production of fossil fuels. That starts with denying permits for the construction of new gas export facilities.
Beyond phasing out fossil fuels, the president must come to terms with the fact that carbon capture technology is not going to solve the climate crisis. As Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s executive director stated in the run up to COP28, we need to “let go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution.”
Over the last two years, the agency cut in half its carbon capture projections for the oil and gas industry as more renewables came online at lower costs. As a result, carbon capture is a very small part of its pathway for remaining below 1.5 degrees, and a certain type of carbon capture — enhanced oil recovery — is simply used by the industry to produce more oil and gas.
Accepting the reality that carbon capture is not a meaningful climate solution means President Biden cannot simply abandon states like Louisiana and Texas to a gold rush created by carbon capture tax credits. The administration must enforce clear regulations at both EPA and the IRS to ensure the maximum benefits of carbon capture while protecting surrounding communities. Any carbon that is captured must be permanently and safely kept out of the atmosphere.
The real solution to the climate crisis is phasing out fossil fuels in favor of clean, renewable energy. Renewables are cheap and getting cheaper, and they’ll soon overtake coal as the largest source of electricity in the United States and internationally.
The Dubai transition is very feasible, so long as President Biden has the political will to stand up to the fossil fuel industry. The world is watching, and all eyes are on what President Biden will do next.
Sarah Brennan is associate director at the Rockefeller Family Fund