For those of us who support the Ukrainian cause, the vote last Saturday was a great relief. Hundreds, if not thousands, of people, worked to support this important outcome for the Ukrainian aid bill in the House.
Ideally, the aid bill that was passed should have been passed six or nine months ago. Some of the blame should fall on the Biden administration for tying Ukraine aid to the U.S. border — if the Biden administration was unwilling to build a wall on the U.S. border, then it should not have tied Ukraine to U.S. border security.
In addition, for many Republicans, Ukraine has been a political loser. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the main GOP advocate for Ukraine in the Senate, voted for the Senate bill back in February, and around two weeks later, he had his primary. Wicker, an astute and able political leader, won with 60 percent of the vote—frankly, a little too close for comfort. One of his two opponents ran specifically on the issue of Wicker being “too pro-Ukraine.”
The Road to Kyiv conversion of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was critical. Johnson supported Ukraine because the moment demanded it. Johnson’s transformation echoes the conversion of former Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Arthur Vandenberg (R-Mich.) — a key architect of the United Nations, NATO and the Marshall Plan. Vandenberg gave up his presidential ambitions to achieve these major accomplishments. If Johnson is Speaker next year, he will be able to cut a deal on Ukraine with either President Biden or President Trump.
Assuming the war continues for another 12 months, we will need yet another supplemental sometime in 2025. No one wants to think about it given how hard the last exercise was, but another supplemental could be more difficult unless actions are taken now. Sadly, “the majority of the majority” in the House did not vote to aid Ukraine. One goal, regardless of what happens in November, will be to flip a majority of House Republicans to “yes.”
Ukraine will need sustained political support over many years the way that Taiwan and Israel have had for decades. If you compare Republican votes in the House for Ukraine with Republican votes in the House for Israel and Taiwan, you can see that there has been much greater Republican support for both Israel and Taiwan. Much of this difference in support is a function of decades of astute, focused political advocacy by American friends of Israel and American friends of Taiwan.
Those who support Ukraine need to be better organized and more focused. Israel has the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which effectively works to educate both sides of the aisle on the importance of Israel; Ukraine will need an America Ukraine Public Affairs Committee — call it “U” PAC.
How many congressional staffers and members of Congress have been to Taiwan? How many congressional staffers and members of Congress have been to Israel in the last 10 years? Now ask yourself, how many have been to Ukraine in the last 10 years? What kind of organized support has Ukraine had in the U.S. government before the last 24 months? Very little. Many Republicans associated Ukraine — prior to the war — with the impeachment of President Trump or Hunter Biden being on the board of a Ukrainian energy company.
As we look ahead past the November 2024 election, the Senate will likely be majority Republican with a slim majority. Unfortunately, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will not become majority leader — there will be some other leader in his place. There will also be significant changes in the House with changes in the composition of key committees. Perhaps a slight Democratic majority in the House or a slight Republican majority.
There are some potentially gettable votes in the Republican Party. If one looks at the amendment that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) put forward, there were 139 Republicans who voted against that amendment. If you compare the number of Republicans who voted against the amendment versus the number of Republicans who voted for the full aid bill, that amounts to something like 38 Republicans that might consider changing their vote. The 139 who voted against the MTG amendment largely represent the internationalist caucus in the House Republican Party. We should find meaningful ways to say thank you to Speaker Johnson and any Republican who voted for the Ukraine aid bill. Now would be the time to help new candidates and incoming members of Congress to get educated on Ukraine.
Among the other X-factors is a potential Trump victory. Trump has said that he would support Ukraine’s assistance under (1) the circumstances of a loan, which is reflected in the House bill, and (2), greater “burden sharing.” He defines burden sharing as all members of NATO spending 2 percent of their GNP on defense — most countries have not met this promised goal. If our allies cannot or will not spend 2 percent of GNP on defense, Trump will likely refuse further aid for Ukraine. Now would be the time for our allies to revisit their commitments on defense spending.
Marshaling this support would be easier if Ukraine is seen to be winning on the battlefield — when Ukraine asked the U.S. for a previous supplemental in May of 2022, Ukraine was on the offensive. America likes a winner, and nearly 75 percent of the House Republicans and 75 percent of the Senate Republicans voted for the May 2022 package. If Ukraine is on the offensive in six months, asking for another supplemental will be easier, but if there is basically a stalemate or they are losing ground, it will be much harder.
What’s clear is that if the United States is going to support Ukraine, we will need a higher level of political support for Ukraine over the next five to ten years, whether that support is for the ongoing conflict or for the country’s reconstruction. The hard work of building that political support starts today.
Daniel F. Runde is the author of the book “The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power” (Bombardier Books, 2023).