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How Zelensky is adjusting strategy amid Trump’s uncertain support

The recent convergence of political events has sent ripples of anxiety through President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team in Ukraine. Three critical developments stand out. Firstly, the separate meetings between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and former U.S. President Donald Trump have raised alarms.

Secondly, Trump’s increasing likelihood of reclaiming the U.S. presidency this November adds to the unease. Lastly, the nomination of JD Vance, known for his antagonistic stance towards Ukraine, as Trump’s vice presidential candidate, compounds the tension. These factors collectively signal a shift in the geopolitical landscape, potentially compelling Zelensky to recalibrate his strategy and intensify efforts to forge closer ties with Donald Trump and his camp. President Zelensky and Donald Trump reconnected on July 19, exactly five years after their infamous 2019 phone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment.

Zelensky took to Twitter to share that their conversation emphasized the “vital importance of bipartisan and bicameral” U.S. support for Ukraine. He also mentioned that they agreed on a future “personal” meeting to discuss peace with Russia. Zelensky congratulated Trump on securing the Republican nomination and condemned the recent assassination attempt against him.

On Truth Social, Trump characterized the call as cordial, noting Zelensky’s congratulations on his nomination and a “very successful” Republican National Convention. “I appreciate President Zelensky for reaching out,” Trump wrote. “As your next President of the United States, I will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families.” Apparently, a positive development for Zelensky.

In recent months, as polls began showing Trump edging ahead of Biden, Zelensky has been continuously trying to establish direct and indirect connections with the Trump camp. His primary goal is obviously to secure the continuation of American financial and military support for Ukraine post the November presidential election.


Three days after surviving an assassination attempt, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson seized the opportunity to meet with Trump. Johnson took to X to emphasize the critical importance of supporting Ukraine. “We discussed Ukraine, and I have no doubt that he will be strong and decisive in supporting that country and defending democracy.” Johnson posted after their July 16 meeting. It remains unclear whether  Zelensky explicitly requested former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson to engage with Trump. Johnson, a fervent advocate of increased Western aid to Ukraine, has visited Kyiv numerous times during and after his tenure. This recent interaction represents the latest maneuver by Ukraine’s supporters, some acting on Kyiv’s behest and others independently, to steer Trump towards a more pro-Ukrainian stance as his potential election victory looms. 

Ukraine’s primary concern, over two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, is maintaining the flow of military aid from its most significant Western ally. Trump’s MAGA camp, along with his circle of formal and informal advisors, includes many who have opposed or questioned further assistance to Ukraine. The selection of Vance as Trump’s vice presidential running mate, has intensified this apprehension. Ostensibly, at the behest of Zelensky, Ukrainian Protestant groups, leveraging their connections with the influential Evangelical lobby in the U.S., have played a key role in recent mediation efforts.

This year, these Ukrainian Protestants traveled to the U.S. to engage with American Evangelicals, a move that reportedly helped persuade House  Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), a Southern Baptist. Their advocacy was instrumental in breaking a months-long impasse, eventually securing Trump’s endorsement for $60 billion in crucial aid to Ukraine — a package that had been blocked by Trump’s camp for over half a year.

While it remains unclear what direct outreach efforts the Zelensky administration has undertaken with Trump, the historical context of their relationship adds complexity. The notorious 2019 phone call between Zelensky and Trump, which triggered Trump’s first impeachment, has left an indelible mark on their interactions. Despite the fraught history, the strategic moves by Ukrainian supporters and Evangelical allies denotes the ongoing efforts to ensure continued American support for Ukraine.

In the early stages of Russia’s invasion, the Zelensky administration concentrated its efforts on strengthening ties with the Biden White House, striving to secure critical support. However, as evidenced by the successful aid vote this spring, Ukraine has shifted its strategy, now focusing more on engaging with Republicans. Johnson, who has emerged as a staunch supporter of Ukraine, represents a positive development in this outreach. Ukraine’s prospects of winning Donald Trump’s backing appeared suddenly dim when Vance accepted Trump’s vice-presidential nomination. This nomination is certainly concerning for Ukrainian interests, given Vance’s positions. 

However, Vance’s role should not be exaggerated. In the U.S. political system, vice presidents wield limited power, and Vance’s previous shifts in position indicate he might be open to altering his views. Zelensky and his team are cautiously optimistic that through strategic persuasion, they may influence Vance to reconsider his stance on Ukraine, ensuring continued support in these critical times.

Following the recent positive phone call with Donald Trump, Zelensky might find himself in a relatively comfortable position. However, it is crucial for Zelensky’s team to approach future discussions with a keen understanding of Trump’s business-oriented mindset. Donald Trump has pledged to support Ukraine with aid, contingent upon its willingness to engage in negotiations with Russia and provided Russia does not significantly increase its military aid.

This conditional support reflects Trump’s strategic approach, leaving ample room for interpretation and adjustment based on evolving circumstances. His statements, while seemingly supportive, are deliberately open-ended, designed to allow flexibility in how he presents them to the public in the future.

By framing his commitment in this manner, Trump ensures that he can adapt his position as the geopolitical landscape shifts. This strategy not only provides him with the leeway to adjust his stance according to public sentiment and political developments but also aligns with his broader business-oriented approach to international relations. 

For Ukraine, this means managing a complex and potentially unpredictable ally. While Trump’s conditional support could be valuable, it also requires careful diplomacy to ensure that Ukraine’s needs and strategic interests are addressed. As the situation evolves, maintaining a balance between securing tangible support and managing the expectations set by Trump’s statements will be crucial for Kyiv’s diplomatic efforts.

Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and freelance writer. He is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.