National political polls get all the glory, but the only polls that really matter are the surveys in the small group of battleground states that will make or break presidential aspirations.
Consideration of national polls at the expense of battleground state surveys in the presidential race resembles a doctor who tries to diagnose the injuries of the victim of a serious car crash without doing X-rays.
Vice President Kamala Harris has had slim leads in most of the national surveys since the presidential debate. There’s a good chance she wins the national popular vote, just as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore did in 2016 and 2000 respectively. But that hardly matters if she fails like Clinton and Gore to win most of the votes in the Electoral College.
The next six weeks will be a decisive and divisive road through the seven battleground states except for brief forays to Los Angeles, New York City, Houston, Boston and Washington, D.C. to raise much needed campaign cash and political capital. The seven states which will see most of the action are the three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the Frostbelt and the four states in the Sunbelt, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
Emerson University just conducted a fresh set of post-debate battleground surveys. While a majority of viewers believed the vice president cleaned Donald Trump’s clock in what might have been the two candidates’ only debate, the race is still essentially a dead heat in all seven of the swing states.
Harris has been on a roll since she became the Democratic nominee in July. Trump has been erratic and disoriented.
An analysis of recent Quinnipiac University surveys in northern tier swing states answers the question. Voter evaluations of the capability of the candidates reflect the even division of votes between the two presidential candidates.
Harris and Trump get near equal ratings for handling the economy, a potential national crisis and surprisingly, immigration. Trump’s failure to have a clear edge on this divisive issue may reflect a backlash against the overheated GOP rhetoric on Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio. The Democratic standard-bearer has a clear advantage on guaranteeing abortion access but that is not as important a voter consideration as the economy.
Not surprisingly, the swing states are also the front line of hard-fought battles for control of the U.S. Senate. Six of these states have competitive races that could decide control of the closely divided upper house of Congress. Democrats lead all six contests in the Emerson polls.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) has the biggest lead at 7 percent. The closest Senate race is in Wisconsin where Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin only has a 3-point edge. In the only gubernatorial contest, North Carolina Democratic Attorney General Joel Stein has an 8 percent advantage over the controversial GOP nominee, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
There are other considerations that make this contest so close.
We live in an overheated and hyper partisan climate that feeds political polarization. Voters in the battleground states either hate or love Trump with little ground between the two extremes.
The Harris candidacy is also a voyage in uncharted voters. Voters accepted an African American, Barack Obama, as president but rejected a female presidential contender, Hillary Clinton. This is the closest the United States has come to electing a non-white woman to the highest office in land.
The stark racial and gender divisions in the body politic reflect the reality some voters are not pleased with the prospect of sending a Black woman to live in the White House. The failed former president has tried to capitalize on this voter anxiety by drawing attention to her racial identity at least twice in recent months.
If the vice president overcomes these barriers in the battleground states and becomes a successful chief executive, it could finally mean an end to the political polarization and prejudice in the United States.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.