November’s election may shape Puerto Rico’s future

As Nov. 5 approaches, all eyes are on the presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This date will also see elections for the U.S. House and Senate, state governors and legislatures, and several referenda.

Perhaps understandably, the upcoming vote in Puerto Rico is flying under the radar. Nonetheless, it deserves our attention.

This fall, Puerto Ricans will vote for not only who forms its government, but also what exactly its government is. Along with contests for the island’s governor, resident commissioner, Senate, House, and mayoral seats, Puerto Rico will hold a referendum, with voters choosing between independence, U.S. statehood or a new form of self-government. The result will help determine what Puerto Rico is in relation to the U.S., but also what the United States is in relation to Puerto Rico — a colonial power or a leading democracy.

Many Americans are only vaguely aware of Puerto Rico’s status. For many, it remains a colony, often dubbed “the oldest colony in the world.” Puerto Rico formally became part of New Spain in 1521, with Madrid’s imperial rule replaced by Washington’s in 1898.

Puerto Rico is typically seen as less than a state. Its residents are unable to vote in presidential elections, casting no ballots and sending no electors through the Electoral College, and its elected resident commissioner is limited to a non-voting role in the U.S. House. In 2016, financial woes led to the creation of an oversight board to restructure the island’s economy. And in 2017, the island once again felt neglected by a limited federal response to the effects of Hurricane Maria.

However, Puerto Rico can also be seen as enjoying territorial autonomy, with special self-government catering to this minority nation. Puerto Rico has its own political parties, Spanish-language education and governance, distinctive weights and measures, a separate National Guard, and membership in international organizations. Puerto Rico competes separately in the Olympics and other sporting events. It has elements of being a country, but also some advantages of being in the United States related to security and labor migration.

Puerto Rican leaders have framed this as “the best of both worlds.” Although the degree of its self-government has declined since 2016, Puerto Rico remains an important case of territorial autonomy, akin to Quebec in Canada, Scotland in the United Kingdom or Catalonia in Spain.

Within Puerto Rico, the island’s political status forms a primary political fault line: while the New Progressive Party (Partido Nuevo Progresista) focuses on Puerto Rico becoming a U.S. state, the Popular Democratic Party (Partido Popular Democrático) prefers the current commonwealth system. A third pro-independence party has little electoral support. Those wanting Puerto Rico to become a state frame it in terms of voting rights and economic benefits. Critics worry that becoming the 51st state would dilute the island’s unique identity, making it just one more state in an English-speaking union.

The 2024 referendum will feature three options: free association, statehood or independence. As in any referendum, the wording will matter a great deal. Clearly, Puerto Ricans do not currently support independence, as polls and previous referenda demonstrate. It is also clear that Puerto Ricans are dissatisfied with the status quo, especially since 2016. The party supportive of statehood has been mired in scandals, seen as promoting the referendum to increase turnout and divert attention from its expected losses in November.

Much depends on whether “free association” will be understood by voters as the status quo or some form of enhanced, more meaningful self-government. The details on what a revamped free association would mean remain unclear, to be negotiated later if the vote is successful. However, as voters have shown in other autonomous regions such as Scotland in the United Kingdom or South Tyrol in Italy, greater self-government is typically the more popular option compared to either incorporation or independence. 

This is the latest in a series of votes on Puerto Rico’s political status. It follows from a non-binding 2020 referendum that saw 52.52 percent of ballots support becoming a U.S. state, while 47.48 percent voted against. However, the Trump administration did not approve the referendum, and Congress, which holds the power to provide statehood, did not act on it. This year will be different, since the Biden administration supports Puerto Rico’s ability to choose, and if the Democrats are victorious in the presidential and legislative elections, it is possible that the U.S. government will finally listen to Puerto Rican voters.

While the referendum is again non-binding, it is hardly inconsequential. A strong response in favor of redefining what Puerto Rico is — either becoming a U.S. state or else crafting enhanced powers as a special entity — will matter for Puerto Rico. The option of a new form of free association has the potential to overcome old debates of statehood, the status quo, or independence.

The result will also matter for the United States. Ignoring the referendum results will strengthen the sense that the U.S. represents a colonial power, indifferent towards the island and its people. When Puerto Ricans make their voices heard this fall, Congress should act in kind to affirm its status as a leading democracy, regardless of who is president come 2025.

Shane Barter is professor of Comparative Politics at Soka University of America. His current book project analyzes the many forms and contested nature of territorial autonomy.