A dead heat is getting even hotter for Kamala Harris. To see it, you can look at the slightly tightening polls; to appreciate you must look inside them. However, to fully understand it, you must look at what Harris did last week: she visited the southern border, she gave an economic speech and she held another softball interview. For a campaign centered on not saying anything, Harris’ playing to her weaknesses says a lot.
The polls say the race is tightening slightly. According to RealClearPolitics’ Sept. 29 average of national polling in a two-way race, Harris leads Trump 49.1 percent to 47.1 percent. That 2-point spread is down slightly from Harris’ 2.2-point advantage a week earlier. Compared to the same point in time in the last two presidential races, Harris substantially trails Biden’s margin in 2020 (6.1 points) and Clinton’s in 2016 (3 points).
In RCP’s national average of a multi-candidate polling, Harris’ lead is also 2 points: 47.9-45.9 percent. This is down from her 2.6-point margin on Sept. 22: (48-45.4 percent).
And the numbers are tighter still when you look inside them. In the election just about a month away, the only opinions that matter are those of likely voters — not simply registered voters. When you separate out the likely voter polls from the registered voter polls, Harris leads Trump head-to-head by less than two points, 48.9 percent to 47.2 percent. Among the multicandidate polls, her advantage is just half a percentage point, 47.7 percent to 47.2 percent.
But Harris isn’t doing as well in RCP’s average of the top battleground states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia) that will decide the November outcome. As of Sept. 29, Harris trailed Trump in all of those states combined, 48.1 percent to 48.2 percent. A scant 0.1-point advantage. A week earlier, Harris was tied with Trump at 47.8 percent, all differences well within the margin of error.
The point is that an already tight race is getting tighter, and it is even closer if you look only at those most likely to vote, the race is tighter still.
You don’t need to look at the polls, nor even inside their numbers, to see the pressure that Harris and her campaign are feeling. Just look at what she did last week, making a trip to the southern border. This was her first since the fiasco of a first visit right after being appointed border czar by President Biden in early 2021.
Harris next made an economic speech in Pennsylvania where she touted a plan to “invest” in “the sectors that will define the next century ”— AI, “clean energy innovation,” and “other emerging technologies.” Harris’ “investment” will be paid for out of what the Tax Foundation estimates to be $4.1 trillion in new taxes in her overall tax agenda — including a 33 percent increase in the corporate tax rate.
Then Harris did yet another softball interview, this time with MSNBC. It did not go well, with the New York Times saying she “repeatedly dodged direct questions and stuck firmly on message.”
On the surface, it seems curious indeed that Harris would run right at three of her biggest weaknesses. On the economy, RCP’s average approval of Biden’s performance on the economy is just 39.2 percent positive; on immigration, just 34.6 percent positive. As far as communicating with the nation goes, the criticism is escalating of her hiding from the media — including going 70 days (as of Sunday, Sept. 29) without a press conference since becoming Democrats’ presumptive nominee.
It seems equally clear that Harris wants to avoid any serious scrutiny, almost as much as she wants to run from her past positions (banning fracking and decriminalizing illegal immigration, to name two). Yet as she tries to run out the clock, her comparatively poor polling against Trump is putting pressure on her to come out of the shadows.
And current events are conspiring to force her out even more. Israel’s dramatic strike against terrorist Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon demands the engagement of someone aspiring to be president. While almost simultaneous with Harris’ southern border trip, ICE stated that its records show 647,000 illegal immigrants with criminal histories released into the U.S. Of these, 425,000 were convicted and 222,000 face pending criminal charges — including more than13,000 with homicide convictions and almost 15,000 convicted of sexual assault.
Democrats’ excitement about Harris was really not about her at all; it was about the prospect that she could successfully implement Biden’s 2020 basement campaign strategy: removing herself from scrutiny and focusing it all on Trump. Even though Harris is trying not to say anything unscripted, what she is doing speaks volumes. And the ever-tightening poll numbers tell us why.
J.T. Young is the author of the upcoming book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left,” from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, OMB and representing a Fortune 20 company.