Stopping the world’s newest forever war

On Oct. 7, Hamas fired rockets into Israel. This wasn’t the Oct. 7 of one year ago, but rather the one this week.

Although the rocket attack was ineffective, the fact that Hamas is still firing rockets from northern Gaza into Israel should bring into question the effectiveness of Israel’s brutal response against the insurgent groups that surround its borders. 

Americans, right and left, now have an aversion to the forever wars that we once took up in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. Now however, it seems that our ally is the one hell-bent on engaging in a forever war of its own, with Americans paying the bills.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now called his nation’s conflict a seven-front war. Of the fronts, only one is a politically recognized entity, Iran. The rest — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian-armed militias in Syria and Iraq, and militants in the West Bank — can best be described as insurgent groups or terrorist organizations. These are not recognized governments, standing armies (although Hezbollah is very well trained and armed) or traditional militaries.

This alone should compel Americans to ask Israel: How exactly are you going to win this seven-front war? Why would we ask this? Because our track record isn’t so great either when it comes to these types of conflicts.

Insurgencies are incredibly hard to defeat. The U.S. failed to overcome the Vietcong. It struggled with al-Qaida in Iraq and watched the Taliban take over Afghanistan. And the common lesson we learned is that to defeat an insurgency, you need to separate the insurgent from the civilian population. That is much easier said than done.

Killing civilians alongside insurgents often leads to more civilians joining said insurgent groups. Don’t believe me? There were an estimated 45,000 Taliban fighters before 9/11. That number had dropped to 11,000 by 2008. As drone strikes increased, along with civilian casualties, the number of Taliban fighters skyrocketed to 60,000 by 2016. When you bomb people, they tend to not want to be on your side.

It is a bit of a conundrum. You kill insurgents, more people become insurgents. Your war becomes a forever war and the more people you kill, the more you end up fighting. 

Israel is now in the same position. Despite claims of destroying Hamas, the rocket attack on the anniversary of Oct. 7 shows that Hamas is still a force. And as civilian casualties mount on a catastrophic level, you will see the numbers of Hamas fighters rise as civilians flock to insurgent groups. The same might happen in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. And with Iran sending money, arms and advisors to each place, Israel will be faced with a never-ending battle that can drag on for a decade.

While Netanyahu seems to be okay with this, the U.S. certainly should not be. Americans on the right and the left are already angry with the billions that have been sent overseas to both Ukraine and Israel instead of being spent here.

However, there is an option for Israel that would and should lead to lasting peace. Cut the insurgency’s power by being a better option for the local populations. One of the reasons insurgencies thrive is because of perception. A well-armed, funded, and trained military fighting poor, ragtag guerillas? Think of a sports powerhouse beating up an amateur team. Everyone kind of feels bad for the underdog at some point.

And therein lies the key. It is hard to accomplish but there is precedent for success. The U.S. used the term “winning hearts and minds.” By providing security, education, health services, food, medicine and infrastructure, you can undermine the political advantage of an insurgent group. Going further, we can look at the British approach to the insurgency in Northern Ireland. The British goal wasn’t to kill as many terrorists as possible but work to ensure the least amount of people on both sides were killed.

There is a way Israel can do that. The first is a ceasefire deal that would bring home the hostages. Then you can undermine Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and others by working to ensure you maintain peace with local populations. It will take time, to be sure — the same amount of time to fight a forever war, but with a lot less loss of life.

Jos Joseph is a master’s candidate at the Harvard Extension School at Harvard University. He is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq and lives in Anaheim, Calif.