Are hurricanes the COVID of the 2024 election?

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented changes to voting processes, which Donald Trump has repeatedly seized upon to allege fraud in the wake of his loss. Could something similar be awaiting us in 2024 in regard to hurricanes that have swept pivotal swing states?

Hurricanes Helene and Milton are already raising questions about voting access in Georgia and North Carolina, two states critical to the outcome in November, as well as in the less contested state of Florida. The areas affected by Helene are primarily Republican-leaning. Of the North Carolina region most devastated, Trump won 26 counties to President Biden’s three.

North Carolina’s elections board this week approved emergency measures for the counties affected that include modifying early voting days, hours and sites. That’s not the case in Georgia. Of the 53 Peach State counties most impacted, Trump won 57.3 percent of the vote, and officials have yet to announce any changes to voting protocols.

Does this set Republicans up to blame a narrow loss on the storms? Possibly. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) recently previewed one potential argument, saying, “Forty thousand absentee ballots are mailed out of North Carolina, and only 1,000 were returned before the storm. So did some get washed away? Would those people ever know where they get an opportunity to do it again?”

But it’s not just Republicans. If a narrow loss in North Carolina contributes to defeat for Harris, it’s easy to see how Democrats could call for investigations into last-minute voting changes or lost mail-in ballots.

In the Democratic stronghold of Asheville, the Democratic county chair told reporters the storm has undermined the party’s chances. Already, many Democrats and the media are alleging that misinformation and disinformation from Trump about the federal response is paving his way to the presidency.

While media outlets have drawn comparisons to Hurricane Sandy and other election-time storm events, the truth is that none of these properly compare to our modern circumstances. That’s not because the storms themselves are so unique, but rather because this election is perfectly set-up for historic discontent — and doubt — no matter the outcome.

When both parties believe the other is a threat to democracy, we guarantee that half the country will struggle to accept the results. When die-hard supporters of both candidates live in information bubbles, surrounded by those who agree with them, they view a loss as incompatible with reality.

A simple search of X, or Reddit, or Instagram reveals countless examples of false confidence on both sides — people who believe their candidate is winning in a landslide, who dismiss countervailing polls as impossibly biased, and who see signs everywhere they look that the other side is floundering.

When this is how you view the election, it is natural for the shock of a loss to become doubt about the result, and to seek a scapegoat to help explain uncomfortable results: “We didn’t really lose — the other side cheated, or lied, or tricked voters.”

This was the case not just with COVID in 2020, but with allegations of Russian collusion in 2016 that failed to pan out. Will these hurricanes be blamed in 2024? That probably depends on the outcome. But even if not, something else is likely to emerge instead.

Whoever wins, and however the losing side may react, we need leaders in Congress in both parties — particularly the losing party — to stand up for the majority of Americans who will want our government to govern and our new president to succeed. With so many pressing challenges facing our nation, we cannot afford to lose precious time to relitigating an election that is over and done with. We tried that the last two times and it left our people battered and bruised, and our government woefully unproductive.

The closer we get to this election, the more we need leaders and citizens on both sides to commit now — before the results are known — to accept the outcome, reject excuses and conspiracy theories, and lead America forward with whatever leaders the people choose. 

Nancy Jacobson is CEO and founder of No Labels.