North Korea again raises the specter of nuclear conflict

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has once again raised the specter of nuclear conflict, issuing a stark warning that his regime would not hesitate to unleash its military might — nuclear weapons included — should any adversary attempt to use force against Pyongyang. Reported by state media on Oct. 7, this latest verbal outburst was part of his speech at the Kim Jong Un University of National Defense. The backdrop to Kim’s remarks is significant. 

North Korea’s parliament, in session since last Monday, is reportedly set to amend the constitution to further label South Korea as its “primary foe,” an unmistakable signal of deepening hostility on the peninsula. It is no accident that this message comes only a few days after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol warned that any North Korean use of nuclear weapons would invite an “overwhelming” response from the South Korea-U.S. alliance. The escalating rhetoric on both sides denotes the persistent volatility in the region, where decades-old tensions remain tightly wound around the nuclear question, with no resolution in sight.

Not surprisingly, North Korea has again escalated its spate of provocations against South Korea in a rather derisory fashion. In addition to test-firing tactical ballistic missiles capable of carrying massive warheads, the regime has been conducting absurd yet practically poignant gestures as sending garbage-filled balloons across the border and broadcasting propaganda messages. These moves reflect Pyongyang’s increased confidence with their bag of multi-pronged tricks. 

The missile tests not only show military strength but next-level psychological warfare, assessing how its rivals can take Kim grabbing headlines around the world about his pursuit of nuclear weapons. Perhaps even more alarmingly is the news that last month North Korea unveiled its uranium enrichment facility for the first time, broadcasting images of Kim Jong-un personally inspecting the site and urging that centrifuges be added.

This rare nuclear display highlights the regime’s eagerness to flaunt its strides in its nuclear program with an unprecedented level of boldness, hinting at potentially faster weaponization plans. Despite intense pressure from the international community, Pyongyang is showing that it will press on with its nuclear project as well as diversify provocation and destabilization. Thus, it has returned the reclusive state to international attention, rattling nerves and prompting condemnation.

North Korea has long enjoyed the pride in demonstrating its aggressive military might, often in ways that violate not only international agreements but also simple diplomatic norms. All these aggressive provocations are happening at a time when major nations are juggling their own internal and international issues, dividing focus throughout the globe. These tests came on the heels of the June summit between Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, by testing missiles now, North Korea will look to take advantage of this distraction and advance its agenda with the world’s focus is split. 

However, there has been no ambiguity in the response from much of the international community to North Korea’s missile tests. The U.S., South Korea and Japan all denounced the test as a threat to international peace and a violation of United Nations resolutions against North Korea’s deployment of ballistic missile systems. The three nations have said in a joint statement that they remained dedicated to the region’s security and stability and warned Pyongyang “to abandon its illegal and dangerous” behavior.

The Putin-Kim meeting has adverse ramifications in terms of regional stability in East Asia. The summit resulted in a mutual defense pact that is expected to drastically change the regional meridians. This new alliance will definitely bolster North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and strengthen military relations with both countries.

The move is seriously alarming for the United States and its allies — particularly South Korea and Japan, which have responded to the recent display of North Korean aggression by stepping up defense activities. The meeting is one more illustration of the changing dynamics and increasing paradoxes underpinning East Asian geopolitics. Because of the possibility of increased military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, South Korea and Japan are likely to experience increased security threats. This could result in North Korea developing its nuclear and missile programs, which would directly threaten both neighbors. As a result, South Korea and Japan are looking for ways to further fortify their military alliances with the United States and enhance their own defense capabilities.

This development in the Korean peninsula necessitates for a recalibration of the defense and deterrence strategies for both the U.S. and its allies — including deployment advanced missile defense systems, increased military cooperation and better intelligence-sharing. It could also include new attempts to get North Korea to the negotiating table, a process that has traditionally proven discomfited.

Certainly, from the perspective of North Korea, there are a host of uses for recent missile testing on an internal level. They are intended to reinforce Kim Jong Un’s position at the top of the military and political elite, ostensibly projecting his “dedication” to building up North Korea’s defenses. Furthermore, these tests are a part of strategy for mobilizing support from within the country. By projecting the image of North Korea as a besieged country constantly under attack from “hostile powers,” the regime is trying to instill a feeling of unity and purpose in its downtrodden people, which is essential for preserving social cohesion and deflecting attention from the nation’s economic woes and violations of human rights.

Addressing North Korea’s missile program is a tougher road. Although sanctions have hit North Koreans very hard, they failed to force Kim Jong Un to give up his weapons programs. Recent ballistic missile tests by North Korea serve as stark reminders of the constant and evolving threat posed by the regime.

Curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions is a complicated task that that must be addressed on multiple levels. These moves could involve further sanctions on the regime and enforcement actions to squeeze North Korea economically. This includes stronger sanctions and enforcement by other countries to force economic isolation, enhancing diplomatic efforts with ASEAN or regional powers as a unified front and engaging in cyber and financial measures to disrupt North Korea economically. 

Another approach to pressurize the regime is by running information campaigns that work against the North Korean propaganda machine, and provide the North Koreans with a more honest look at life outside of the country. These elements, taken together with continued research and a strategy of learning from experience, should provide a better means to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.