Stoddard: Why playing safe is smart for Bush

Jeb Bush appears to have rescued himself from a donor walkout with his encouraging performance at this week’s GOP presidential debate, but he also did something equally important — he thwarted an attack, aimed not at him but against his most threatening rival, that might have brought Bush yet another backfire.

The former Florida governor’s attack on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at the Oct. 28 debate was seen as a embarrassing failure, and Rubio’s sure-footed performance — combined with Bush’s slide in polling and his ineffective criticism of Rubio’s voting record in the Senate — prompted some Bush donors to switch to the Rubio campaign. He came to Tuesday’s debate in Wisconsin determined not to repeat the mistake and, standing next to Rubio, trained his fire on presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton throughout the night.

{mosads}But a New York Times report published the day of the debate revealed just how much Rubio’s momentum has shaken the Bush campaign, with the Right To Rise PAC supporting Bush planning to spend $20 million in advertising portraying Rubio as unelectable because he has rejected any exceptions to a ban on abortion. The report also alarmed Bush supporters who know Rubio’s strict stance on abortion would only endear him more to the most conservative voters in Iowa, for example, who are none too pleased with his past record and reversals on immigration.

Bush didn’t mention Rubio or abortion at what was widely viewed as his “last rites” debate, but expressed his disapproval of the plan the following day, saying, “I don’t think anyone should attack someone who’s pro-life.” Bush and his campaign staff are not permitted to speak to those working on his behalf at the super-PAC.

Mike Murphy, his longtime trusted adviser who chose to run the Right To Rise super-PAC instead of joining the presidential campaign, is planning the attacks. In a lengthy interview with Bloomberg Politics last month, Murphy admitted he once donated to Rubio as he launched his 2010 Senate run, but insisted the junior senator hasn’t done much. “The second and third look are going to be very tough on Marco Rubio. That’s just a prediction,” he said.

Murphy also complained in the interview of the “secret dark money” that Conservative Solutions Project, a 501(c)(4) supporting Rubio, has spent in advertising without disclosing its donors. “There is a cynicism behind the young, fresh brand that I think is going to catch up with him,” Murphy said.

That expenditure hasn’t escaped notice, even though Murphy said Rubio has been given preferential coverage from the media, which he called “the Obama 2008 treatment.” 

NBC’s “First Read” noted last week that the 501(c)(4) supporting him has become the second-biggest overall TV ad spender, at nearly $7 million, as Rubio scraped for hard money and called it egregious, asking: “The political world is conditioned to not bat an eye on campaign money shenanigans these days, but it is possible we won’t ever know who kept the next president of the United States campaign afloat during these crucial months of the primary?” 

As 2016 competitors Ted Cruz and Donald Trump attack Rubio on immigration, Bush has realized Rubio’s new front-runner status will guarantee him more scrutiny than he has experienced thus far, and it’s better for Bush to play it safe for now as he tries to regain stable footing in a volatile and chaotic race that favors inexperienced outsiders. And playing it safe means selling himself as the safe choice.

“I’m a better bet,” he said the day after the debate, in a clear contrast to his younger rival. “I’ve got a proven record and I campaign in a way that’s based on my record and based on ideas that I’ve had. I’ve been vetted. I’ve been tested. I’m an open book.”

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.