McConnell’s dilemma: What if Trump’s candidates win?

It’s easy to know which Republican Senate candidates Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his allies are most likely cheering for — privately — in the major primaries in the next three weeks. 

That would be: Pat McCrory, the former governor of North Carolina; David McCormick, a wealthy hedge fund executive running in Pennsylvania, and probably investment banker Mike Gibbons in Ohio. It isn’t that they necessarily are the best general election candidates — though they might be — it’s that they are running against Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates.

Throwing caution aside, Trump endorsed: Rep. Ted Budd, a right-wing gun shop owner, in North Carolina; Dr. Mehmet Oz, a television celebrity doctor, in Pennsylvania; and J.D. Vance, an author, in Ohio. None was a front runner when Trump embraced him; if any wins, Trump can justifiably claim credit.

Republicans are a Trump-dominated party — the only question is how entrenched. There is speculation —privately — that he’s losing his grip: Crowds at the rallies aren’t as large; he’s no longer on Twitter, and his comments on Putin and Russia are out of sync with public opinion. 

The hope among establishment Republicans is that when winning back control of Congress, they can also reshape the party in a more traditional conservatism, with less of the Trump vitriol and bombast. They would focus on undercutting Biden and setting up a 2024 agenda with Trump a diminishing figure.

I suspect that’s an illusion.

Trump’s clout within the Republican rank and file is as strong as ever.  

Very few Republicans are running this year as anti-Trump; most are playing to his ego. Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election by 7 million votes, clear cut. That has been affirmed by dozens of courts, numerous recounts and even by President Trump’s attorney general and Homeland Security agency.

Yet most Republican voters believe the election was stolen — and most Republican candidates either assert that or duck the issue. Embracing Trump’s “big lie” is a prerequisite for his backing. 

Many of the candidates Trump supports are incumbents in safe seats. He’s also focusing on some down-ballot races for secretary of state or state attorneys general that play a role in election disputes. He seems likely to lose some, like the Georgia governor’s race, and he ditched others destined lose, like the Alabama Senate race.

But these three pending Senate races are not safe bets and will be highly visible. These — along with his hate-filled campaign to defeat Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, will enhance or diminish Trump’s clout.

A number of Trump’s candidates, predictably, have glaring flaws. Of the big three Senate contests, TV’s Dr. Oz has peddled quack medical cures, incurring condemnation from experts. Budd has said the Jan. 6 deadly mob assault on the Capitol to overturn the presidential election “was nothing. It was just Patriots standing up.” Vance, who cracked a joke about a killing, went from a never-Trump critic to a sycophant. (That isn’t a unique journey: Trump called Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s wife “ugly” and suggested his father was involved in the assassination of President Kennedy, and yet there were few more vocal and loyally voting supporters of President Trump than the Texas Senator.)

But if the Trumpites win in a banner year, he will cast a large shadow over the next Congress. Move on and don’t relitigate the last election? No way. Occasionally seek some accords with Biden and Democrats for the greater good? Forget it.

There is no greater ideological or policy agenda for Trump than unswerving loyalty to him. Kevin McCarthy seemed well situated to be the next House Speaker, if, as expected, the GOP takes control next year, and had made endless treks to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the ring. McCarthy’s fate now rests entirely with Trump after the bombshell New York Times report that right after the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol, McCarthy told his colleagues he’d “had it with this guy” and would push Trump to resign. McCarthy flatly denied the report as “totally false and wrong” — until an audio tape confirmed it. Trump may stick with McCarthy while keeping him on a short leash. McCarthy wouldn’t have the votes if the ex-president opposes him. He should also ask former Attorney General Jeff Sessions about how quickly Trump can turn.

Trump also has contempt for institutions like the Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Reserve, NATO and actually the military. Conservative intellectual, Yuval Levin, has noted conservatives traditionally are “defenders of Society’s institutions.” The Republican Party has moved away from this, he says, and has to recapture that to govern. That’s unlikely with Donald Trump glaring over their shoulders.

McConnell knows it.

If Trump is a kingmaker in November, he’ll be a major force not only in 2024 but in 2023. Mitch McConnell may come to regret that when he had a chance to politically kill the king — during last year’s impeachment for inciting the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol — he took a pass.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.