Midterm hopes: GOP fingers crossed; Democrats have to work

With the Supreme Court’s abortion and gun decisions and mass shootings threatening to slow Republican’s midterm elections momentum, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are hoping for a left-wing overreaction and short memories.

They relish debates over increasing the size of the High Court or impeaching justices or demonstrations at justices’ homes. These are distractions from a focus on restoring abortion protections and preventing further right-wing intrusions into private lives on same sex marriage or the use of contraceptives, which the public strongly opposes.

The GOP certainly enjoys divisive Democratic criticism of President Biden for not doing more.

On guns, the Supreme Court’s ill-timed pro-gun decision — wedged between the massacre of young school children in Uvalde, Texas, and the slaughter of innocent citizens at Highland Park, Illinois’ Fourth of July parade — affords Democrats another opportunity.

These could be lifelines to energize low-propensity voters and to win a few converts in a heretofore hostile political environment. Of course, the central issues will be the economy, inflation and gas prices. But if handled well, abortion, guns and an unpopular Supreme Court could make a difference on the margins and affect a number of contests.

Democrats carping about Biden not doing more is counterproductive.

Policy-wise, Biden’s options are limited. He’s never going to be the inspirer-in-chief or able to effectively rally forces. These critics should write on the blackboard ten times: “Joe Biden is not FDR or JFK.”

If Democrats want to score points on the issues, it’ll take relentless ground games, not some cheerleader in Washington.

In most competitive races, the Supreme Court’s decision ending 49 years of protection for the right to an abortion and nixing a gun control law are wildly unpopular. If not distracted by extraneous issues like impeaching justices, House and Senate Democratic candidates can appeal to passive or swing voters by vowing to codify abortion rights, patterned after the Roe protections.

Conversely, they can warn that if Republicans win control of Congress, they will try to ban all abortions, as Mike Pence has advocated. There’s lot of radical right-wing chatter in the states, like Texas attorney general Ken Paxton talking about criminalizing abortion.

Justice Clarence Thomas handed another political gift to Democrats when, in the abortion decision, he called for revisiting other rights like same sex marriage and contraceptives.

This is not an idle threat.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh dismissed that possibility — but this is the same Kavanaugh who, in his confirmation, dismissed the prospect of overturning Roe, which he did last month. 

On guns, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) the architect of the modest measure that just passed, said this should only be a down payment. Senate Republicans will block any congressional action, but on the campaign trail, calling for universal background checks and banning assault weapons — at a minimum raising the age to buy one to 21 — will resonate with most voters. The Uvalde school slaughter of little kids and the Buffalo supermarket murders were committed by 18-year-olds with AR-15 assault rifles.

Republican leaders like McConnell are counting on a liberal overreach — like calling for gun confiscation — and especially fading memories. That has been the experience after most previous gun violence.

Tragically, however, there will other mass shootings between now and November.

Should candidates run against the Supreme Court? It’s not a novel idea: President Roosevelt did when he tried to pack a hostile court; he didn’t succeed, but the justices got the message. In 1968, Richard Nixon ran against the Warren Court as being too soft on crime.

This current court is more partisan and political.

In 1968, four of the nine Justices were Republican appointees. In the 1973 Roe abortion decision, five of the seven-person majority were named by a Republican president — and one of the dissenters was a Democrat.

This Republican court marches in lock step on abortion, guns, religion, and most anything political.

To have any chance of capitalizing on the opportunity, Democrats have to have curb the preaching and focus on proselytizing swing voters, particularly the 18- to 34-year-olds, who habitually turn out in low numbers in off-year elections. The stakes for them are huge.

Democrats also need to get out of Washington, New York and Cambridge and go to places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. Start registering voters and proselytizing.

If successful, the Democrats can then bring up proposed changes in the Supreme Court.

If they fail, it’s going to get darker — a lot darker.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.