Wisconsin’s GOP gubernatorial race may forecast this year’s tight elections

With President Biden’s poll numbers continuing to weigh down progressive candidates across the country, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers appears to be facing significant headwinds in one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests this election cycle — in one of the most critical of swing states. Until April, the Republican primary was a relatively quiet affair; then Tim Michels blew the contest wide open. As has been the case since 2010, when former Gov. Scott Walker led a conservative revolution in the state, Wisconsin once again may find itself at the epicenter of the political world with key contests for governor and U.S. senator. Michels, a business executive and former Army Ranger, may be the pivotal figure within this epicenter.

Until April 25, many viewed the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination as a two-person contest. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and retired Marine Kevin Nicholson had been campaigning (unofficially) for the better part of the past three years. Kleefisch loyally served as Walker’s lieutenant and is rightly viewed as a conservative champion who fought through her own four-way primary in 2010 (beating out the establishment’s preferred choice) and helped Walker pass his historic Act 10 reform. This courage earned her the privilege of then facing and surviving a recall attempt by those incensed with Act 10’s requirement that public sector employees contribute to their pension and health care benefits.  

Nicholson also had a courageous story to tell, having served in Iraq and Afghanistan, ultimately earning a Bronze Star for his leadership of a counter-improvised explosive device (IED) team in Afghanistan. After earning degrees from Harvard and Dartmouth universities, he took on the role of a management consultant for one of the world’s largest consulting firms.

Despite their impressive resumes, neither candidate was without weaknesses. Following Walker’s 2018 loss, and in a year where being an outsider likely will be viewed as an advantage, Kleefisch may struggle to convince voters to see her as a fresh alternative to the incumbent. Nicholson had the opposite problem. Due to the largesse of a single Illinois benefactor, Nicholson exploded onto the scene in 2018, only to lose to former state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. As the former National Chairman of the College Democrats and a speaker at the 2000 Democratic National Convention, Nicholson clearly needed time to win over Wisconsin voters — time he didn’t have. After failing to break 10 percent in two polls, Nicholson recently suspended his campaign.

Tim Michels entered amid this uncertainty.

Prior to Michels’ campaign, Kleefisch enjoyed a relatively comfortable lead over Nicholson.  Polls in February and April by Marquette University showed her with a 22-point lead. Last month’s poll, the first since Michels entered the race, showed the upstart candidate with a 1-point lead over Kleefisch. While the margin of error is a relatively large 6.3 percent, Michels’ explosive entrance into the race underscores its volatility. Internal polling released by his campaign shows Michels with a 9-point lead over Kleefisch before Nicholson exited the race.  With a similar business and military background, many believe Michels is well positioned to pick up many of Nicholson’s supporters.

Michels ran for the Senate in 2004, losing to then-Sen. Russ Feingold. He since has built a family business with his brothers, growing the Michels Corporation from a few hundred employees to more than 8,000. While some have fled Milwaukee, the Michels construction firm has invested in the city, building its headquarters in one of the previously neglected downtown harbors. An Army Ranger for 12 years, Michels has described serving as commander of the Honor Guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier as the “duty of which I am most proud.”

Yet Michels is not without weaknesses as a candidate. He has been forced to swat back claims that he hasn’t lived in Wisconsin over the last 10 years while managing a construction project in New York; he did maintain his Wisconsin residence. In addition, some have questioned his reported opposition to conservative efforts to reform project labor agreements and right-to-work and the state’s prevailing wage law that was repealed. Michels has been accused of advocating for an increase in the state’s gas tax, but denies that. It’s worth noting that conservatives largely have been successful in these reform efforts and would be unlikely to consider watering down the reforms if Michels becomes governor.  

With roughly two weeks until the August primary, some wonder if Michels is the candidate better positioned to catch the red wave that appears to be forming ahead of this fall’s elections. He presents a strong contrast to a feeble, largely ineffective incumbent. While he doesn’t claim to have started the Michels Corporation, he does point out how the company has grown under his leadership. With inflation raging and workforce participation remaining stagnant, Wisconsin Republicans may gravitate to a businessman who has made tough decisions.

In addition to the economy, Michels’ advertisements have focused on the governor’s lockdown decisions and his lack of response to the 2020 violence in Kenosha and general malice that has beset the state’s largest city. Here too, Wisconsin Republicans may decide that a former Army Ranger is the type of servant leader the state needs.  

External events also have impacted Wisconsin’s primary. In May, delegates to the state convention decided by a slim margin to refrain from officially endorsing — Kleefisch nearly secured the 60 percent required to receive the official party nod. And following the nomination deadline, the Michels campaign defeated an attempt by the Democratic Party to keep him off the ballot. And, with all things Republican politics, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is Donald Trump, who has endorsed Michels.

Wisconsin remains at the crossroads of American politics. A durably purple state, Wisconsin has almost a quarter-century of razor-thin margins in most major political contests, beginning with President Bush’s 2000 loss by only 0.22 percent (5,708 votes) through President Trump’s 2016 win by 0.77 percent (22,748 votes) and his 2020 loss by 0.63 percent (20,682 votes). Next month, Wisconsin Republicans will decide who will take on the progressive incumbent governor this fall. 

Jake Curtis is a Milwaukee lawyer and officer in the Wisconsin Air National Guard who formerly served as a department chief legal counsel in the Walker administration and as an associate counsel at the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty.