The Mar-a-Lago raid gave Republicans an unexpected second wind

The FBI’s unprecedented search of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home leaves serious questions unanswered about what federal crimes Trump may or may not have committed while in office and sets the stage for one of the most politically divisive public investigations of an elected official that the country has ever endured. 

On Aug. 8, federal agents seized 11 boxes of classified documents — including highly classified government materials, potentially containing nuclear information — from Trump’s Florida home.  

Contrary to what Trump and other Republican officials have said, we have no reason to believe that the FBI and Department of Justice are not acting in good faith and abiding by the law. The American people deserve full transparency from their government, especially given the likelihood that Trump seeks the presidency again in 2024.  

That being said, given how polarizing a figure Trump is — and how deeply divided the country is — the search likely will not change many voters’ minds when it comes to deciding which party to support in November’s midterm elections, especially given that Trump himself is not on the ballot. However, it may further galvanize an already-enthused Republican base to the detriment of the Democratic Party. 

While a majority of Americans (54 percent) approve of the FBI’s search, there are strong partisan divides — Democrats overwhelmingly (86 percent) approve of the search, compared to just 21 percent of Republicans, according to new Economist/YouGov polling. While Independents favor, rather than oppose, the FBI’s actions by a 10-point margin (47 percent to 37 percent), less than half outright support the search. 

The same poll found that, following the search, Republicans have a 14-point voter enthusiasm advantage over Democrats this year — as two-thirds (66 percent) of Republicans say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting in this year’s midterms compared to previous years, versus 52 percent of Democrats. 

While the G.O.P. may benefit from increased turnout in 2022 as a result of the search, in the long run, the party’s continuing focus on Trump’s grievances — especially if he did, in fact, commit the crimes he is accused of — could be detrimental to their future political viability. 

Within hours of the FBI’s search, Trump and many prominent congressional Republicans echoed a familiar talking point, decrying the investigation as politically motivated. Most egregiously, some in the party — the same members who have railed against the political left’s ‘defund the police’ movement for the last two years — began attacking law enforcement and calling to defund the FBI. 

Even without knowing what the FBI found — or whether the former president committed a crime — Republicans’ reaction to the search serves as another reminder to swing voters, Independents and moderate Republicans of how far away the Republican Party has moved away from its core principles. 

The Republican Party’s best path to remaining politically viable in the long-term is to develop a forward-looking and constructive agenda that prioritizes fiscal prudence, lowering taxes, increasing public safety, strengthening our Southern border, promoting individual liberties and empowering parents to have more control over their child’s education.  

Echoing Donald Trump’s grievances — whether about the FBI’s search of his home, the investigation into his businesses or the 2020 election — is counterproductive to the Republican Party’s long-term political goals. This isolates swing voters, Independents and moderate ‘never-Trump’ Republicans, who are concerned about addressing the challenges of today and, frankly, are eager to put Trump behind them. 

Yet, Republican lawmakers’ reaction to the FBI’s search makes it clear that the party’s base is still deeply loyal to Trump, who has been politically resuscitated by this investigation after it momentarily seemed like his star within the G.O.P. was slowly fading. 

Prior to the Mar-a-Lago search, Trump was slowly but surely losing steam among Republican voters, aside from his most ardent supporters. But in the aftermath, Trump’s lead over his most formidable 2024 rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, widened by 10-points. Trump now leads DeSantis 57 percent to 17 percent among registered Republicans, according to Politico/Morning Consult polling. 

Ultimately, the GOP’s response to the FBI’s search underscores that — much to the chagrin of many rank-and-file Republicans — the Republican Party is still Donald Trump’s party. 

Moreover, if this investigation does not find that Trump committed any crimes — or more likely, does not find that he committed any very serious crimes — the FBI’s actions will have cemented Donald Trump’s place as the 2024 Republican nominee for president, setting back the establishment’s efforts to finally move on from Donald Trump.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”