An alternative strategy for Democrats to secure the midterms

With just eight weeks until the midterm elections, things are starting to look up for Democrats.

They now lead the generic vote after trailing Republicans for months: nearly one-half (47 percent) of registered voters say they would vote for a Democrat, compared to 44 percent for a Republican, per recent Wall Street Journal polling.

Further, gas prices are on the decline, President Biden’s signature spending bill passed, and voters in Kansas — a state Trump won by 15 percent in 2020 — resoundingly rejected a Republican-led abortion ban, indicating that protecting abortion rights could be a motivating issue for voters in November.

Democrats are also outperforming expectations in special elections across the country. This week, Democrat Mary Peltola defeated Sarah Palin for Alaska’s vacant House seat, and last week, Democrat Pat Ryan won an upset victory over Republican Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th Congressional District.

While these are encouraging developments for Democrats, it would be a mistake to say that the party is not still electorally vulnerable. Inflation continues to destroy Americans’ purchasing power, gas prices — while they have steadily decreased — remain high, gun violence is terrorizing cities and Southern states continue to experience huge surges in illegal immigration.

Ultimately, in order for Democrats’ momentum to continue through November, the party needs to adopt a third-way agenda — and specifically, demonstrate their ability to practice fiscal prudence and lead on both crime and immigration reform, while also continuing to advocate for abortion rights and gun safety. 

Practicing fiscal prudence is a key component of a new Democratic approach. Rising prices and the high cost of living are weighing on American families, and Democrats can’t afford to be dragged further to the left on economic policy. The party needs to communicate about how they will lower costs, secure America’s energy independence and avoid tax increases that strangle American businesses and families.

Further, as crime rates surge across the country — with nearly 9-in-10 (89 percent) of Americans saying crime is a “very” or “somewhat” important issue to them, per Economist/YouGov polling — Democrats should pledge ahead of the midterms to pursue a grand bargain with Republicans on criminal justice legislation in the new Congress.

This deal would involve funding and strengthening local law enforcement, while also making the criminal justice system fairer for Black Americans, who are disproportionately victims of police misconduct and are mistreated under the current system.

Beyond the necessity and practicality of such reforms, by prioritizing crime reduction, national Democrats can shield electorally vulnerable members of their party against GOP attacks linking Democratic policies to rising crime rates.

Critically, national Democrats also must make a concerted effort to reject irresponsible bail reform policies, which allow dangerous criminals to go free. This become a signature marker of the current class of liberal district attorneys and is emerging as a major vulnerability for Democrats in 2022.

Even in deep-blue New York City, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of voters believe these bail reform policies have resulted in increased crime. As a result, the New York district attorney, as well as those in other liberal cities — Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago, among them — have faced significant national blowback, with some even facing recall elections because of these policies. 

Immigration is another key issue that Democrats can double down on ahead of the midterms. Given the crisis in our country — both at the border and in terms of the status of millions of hardworking undocumented immigrants — Democrats need to make a visible effort to move to the center on this issue. 

Over the past year and a half, Americans have been bombarded with news about record-high illegal border crossings and ICE detention centers over capacity. For their part, Republicans have been successful in tying the border crisis to the Biden administration’s failed policies and to the broader national trend of rising crime.

At the same time, progressives have slammed Biden for not making more of an effort to keep his campaign promises to provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and protect Dreamers.

Thus, over the next eight weeks, Democrats can advocate for balanced, moderate and targeted immigration policies that secure the border, permanently protect Dreamers and create a pathway to citizenship for more than 11 million undocumented immigrants. 

Last Thursday in a speech to the nation, President Biden demonstrated — for the most part — the type of centrist, conciliatory leadership that Democrats need to practice if they hope to maintain midterm momentum.

Speaking to the current divisions in the U.S., Biden made clear that he was not seeking to demonize all Republicans by calling out the Trump-wing of the party for their attacks on democracy, and said that he hopes to work with the majority of the GOP to find common ground for the sake of the nation.

“Now, I want to be very clear, very clear upfront. Not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans are MAGA Republicans … I know because I’ve been able to work with these mainstream Republicans … I’m an American president, not a president of red America or blue America, but of all America,” Biden said. 

Later in the speech, he urged the country to build a future that does not dwell on the “past, not on divisive culture wars, not on the politics of grievance,” but on “a future we can build together.”

While other segments of President Biden’s speech were less conciliatory, he largely struck the right tone by appealing to the non-MAGA wing of the Republican party and underscoring the importance of preserving American democracy.

Over the next eight weeks, it is essential that Democrats communicate an uplifting vision for the future that is focused on addressing the nation’s most pressing issues — inflation, crime and immigration — while also advocating stanchly for protecting abortion rights, safeguarding gay marriage, strengthening gun safety laws and securing American democracy. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”