Donald Trump demonstrated exceptional political clout in the Republican primaries, with scores of candidates succeeding because they had the endorsement of the former president.
The general election will indicate whether that clout extends beyond the hard core. I’ve picked a dozen races that’ll test that.
The commonalities these “dirty dozen” share: They are in competitive contests in a year that should tilt Republican, were chosen over the preferences of establishment officials, are all election deniers (reiterating the Big Lie that the 2020 election — where Joe Biden won by 7 million votes — was fraudulent) and are embracing what were once considered fringe views.
Running for Senate
J.D. Vance, author of the best-selling memoir, “Hillybilly Elegy,” leapt to the top of the Ohio GOP primary after Trump’s endorsement. Once a harsh Trump critic, Vance has done a full 180. He charges the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine grows out of its opposition to Vladimir Putin, who “doesn’t believe in transgender rights.”
Herschel Walker, a former football star, had a professional sports relationship with Trump. Walker hadn’t lived in Georgia in decades, but cleared the field when Trump embraced him. Not conversant with issues, Walker explained the fallacy of the Democrats’ climate change initiatives, saying “Our good air decided to float over to China’s bad air. So when China gets our good air their bad air got to move. So it moves over to our good air space.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz, the TV doctor who peddled dubious medicinal cures, won the Pennsylvania Senate nomination — over hedge funds executive David McCormick — with Trump’s surprise endorsement. A New Jersey resident who moved to Pennsylvania earlier this year, Oz, in a social media video, said he was shopping at “Wegner’s.” There is no such store in Pennsylvania; he explained that sometimes he gets his children’s names wrong.
A fourth first-time candidate backed by Trump is Blake Masters, a protege of venture capitalist Peter Thiel running for John McCain’s old Senate seat in Arizona. He disassociates from the late GOP icon, declaring, “It’s not his Republican Party in Arizona anymore.” Masters has called for privatizing Social Security and a total abortion ban with no exceptions; for the general election, he slightly modified his stances.
Ted Budd was an obscure North Carolina congressman until Trump’s endorsement; then, he blew past former Gov. Pat McCrory. A gun store owner, Budd voted against the modest gun control bill that was supported by the state’s two GOP Senators. Budd has said the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol really “was nothing. It was just patriots standing up.”
Races for governor
In Maryland, Trumpite Dan Cox trounced the candidate supported by the state’s popular outgoing GOP Gov. Larry Hogan. Cox attended the Jan. 6 Capitol rally; when Vice President Mike Pence refused to alter the electoral college count, Cox tweeted, “Mike Pence is a traitor.”
Kari Lake, a longtime Phoenix TV anchor and once an Obama voter, went full MAGA and beat the establishment candidate supported by the governor and Mike Pence. She is a favorite of the radical right, appearing with people linked to the Q-Anon conspiracy and thanking a Nazi sympathizer for support.
Tim Michels, with Trump’s backing, defeated the once-favored former Wisconsin lieutenant governor, even though he has only lived in the state part-time. Michels, a businessman, said he might decertify the state’s 2020 election results — Biden won Wisconsin by more than 20,000 votes — even though that’s constitutionally impermissible.
Doug Mastriano, to the shock of Pennsylvania’s GOP establishment, easily won the nomination. The former Army officer attended the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, but didn’t enter the building apparently. He campaigns as a Christian nationalist and espouses right-wing conspiracy theories.
The House
Donald Trump’s obsession to drive out of office the ten Republicans who voted to impeach him — at best only two will return — boosted decorated veteran Joe Kent, who defeated Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington State. Although Nathan Gonzales’s “Inside Politics” rates this a “solidly Republican” seat, Kent’s hard right views and associations with white nationalists and the Proud Boys, a violence-prone hate group, could put it in play.
In Michigan, John Gibbs — with Trump’s backing — defeated another Republican who voted for impeachment. Gibbs has promoted crazy fringe conspiracies, like claiming that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign engaged in satanic rituals.
Bo Hines, a former college football player fueled by Trump’s backing, scored an upset in a primary for an open North Carolina seat. The 27-year-old newcomer has called for defunding the FBI and for a federal ban on abortion with no exceptions.
Whatever happens to the runner-up in the last presidential election, Trumpism will remain the dominant force in the Republican party. If at least nine or ten of these candidates win in November, it will only tighten his hold.
If, however, most of the dirty dozen lose in what is supposed to be good GOP year, it will cause consternation and maybe even some rethinking in the party ranks.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.