Democrats are experiencing newfound momentum with less than two months until the midterm elections — but how can they ensure it lasts through November?
After months of a doom-and-gloom outlook — as most were predicting that 2022 would be a repeat of the 1994 and 2010 midterms, where the party lost 53 and 63 seats, respectively — Democrats have been dealt some encouraging news as of late.
They now lead in the generic vote for Congress by 4 points after trailing Republicans for most of the year. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of registered voters say they would vote for a Democrat, compared to 44 percent for a Republican, per recent Marist College polling.
Further, in five special elections for Congress, Democrats have outperformed expectations by an average of 11 points since Roe v. Wade was overturned — most recently in Alaska’s 1st district where Mary Peltola became the first Democrat to win the seat in more than 50 years — indicating that the issue of protecting abortion rights could help Democrats win in competitive districts in November.
That being said, Democrats clearly are still vulnerable for one major reason: inflation remains high, and Americans are still bearing the burden of paying higher prices for goods and gasoline.
Further, while most voters clearly support protecting abortion rights in a vacuum, these voters do not necessarily prioritize electing Democrats who support protecting abortion rights over Republicans who promise to reduce the cost of living.
While Democrats will not be able to do anything over the next eight weeks that will reduce inflation on its face, the party can show voters — through a renewed focus on health care costs — that they are attuned to their daily financial hardships and focused on solutions.
Further, by using health care as an umbrella issue — both as it relates to lowering costs and ensuring quality health care for women — Democrats can position themselves as the only party that is committed to alleviating the high cost of living burden while also protecting a woman’s right to choose.
While Democrats’ recent spending bill sought to address healthcare costs by allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of prescription drugs, this policy is unfortunately flawed. It will end up raising prices for privately insured Americans and hurting Medicare patients’ access to life-saving medications, though these negative effects will not be felt until well after the midterms.
That being said, the final Democratic spending package, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, expanded subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, a policy that is now widely popular with the broader electorate.
Further, Democrats’ push during the bill negotiations to pass a $35 insulin cap for non-Medicare patients was a savvy political move — even though it was ultimately unsuccessful — as it forced Republicans to go on record voting against a policy that would cut costs for millions of Americans with diabetes.
Thus, from a communications perspective, Democrats can make the case to voters that they have been making a concerted effort to cut costs and expand access to healthcare, while Republicans have been working to raise prices and restrict access.
Further, Democrats in vulnerable swing districts can and should weaponize the G.O.P.’s opposition to the $35 insulin cap in the coming months in order to make the case that Republicans do not have Americans’ best financial or personal interests at heart.
At the same time, in order to show voters that the party has a plan to lower health care costs if they retain control of Congress, Democrats can propose a new policy that would lower prescription drug prices for Americans by eliminating the middlemen in drug programs. Removing these middlemen, known as pharmacy benefit managers, would eliminate markups and price hikes on prescription drugs, making medications more affordable for patients.
Moreover, by putting a renewed focus on health care as a general issue ahead of the midterms, Democrats can strengthen their case for protecting abortion rights, which is already shaping up to be a powerful issue for the party.
Polling conducted by my firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, and others since the announcement that Roe would be overturned has consistently found that public support for abortion is strongest when it is framed as a health care issue — more so than as a choice or equality issue.
Indeed, our poll found that two-thirds of likely November 2022 voters are compelled to support protecting abortion rights when it is framed as essential to ensuring quality health care for women.
Thus, making health care a focal issue of their fall campaign will allow the party to capitalize on — and grow — the current abortion rights momentum, helping secure Democratic victories in statewide swing-state races and competitive swing districts.
With this strategic pivot to health care, Democrats may be able to outperform expectations in the midterms to the extent — or to an even greater extent — than most are predicting now.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”