In a political era that often feels closer to “The Twilight Zone” than “The West Wing,” consider this possibility: Speaker of the House Donald Trump. While it may not be the likeliest scenario to result from the 2022 midterms, there is a narrow path through which the former president could well become the next speaker.
Imagine, if you will, that Republicans win the House majority in November, but by far fewer than the 60 seats once predicted by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). With Republicans falling well short of their red wave aspirations, the blame game begins. The punditry focuses on Trump’s lingering presence for alienating swing voters from the GOP. Trump, not exactly known for his magnanimity, quickly shifts blame onto McCarthy, whom he has previously criticized behind closed-doors. Rank-and-file House Republicans desert McCarthy in the GOP leadership election, fearing the wrath (and electoral pain) of going against Trump. The election is thrown wide open.
Maybe the party rallies behind a more devout Trump acolyte such as Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Or perhaps Trump sees an opportunity. In one swoop, he can throw a wrinkle into the ongoing investigations swirling around him, dominate the media headlines for the foreseeable future and ensure the impeachment of President Biden. He can simply become speaker of the House himself.
Contrary to popular belief, the speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress. In fact, protest votes by members of both parties for potential speakers not serving in the House of Representatives are fairly common.
When Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was reelected speaker in 2021, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) cast a vote for Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Illinois). Two years before that, there were votes for Duckworth, Stacey Abrams and even, at the time, former Vice President Joe Biden. When Paul Ryan was elected speaker in 2015, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) voted instead for former Sec. of State Colin Powell. And in former Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) last race for the office, there were votes for Powell, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.).
It’s not just legal for Trump to get votes for the speakership, it’s well established with recent precedent. And once Trump decides that he wants the job, there’s no candidate who can muster enough support among House Republicans to beat him. For House Republicans in solidly red districts, opposing Trump would be an invitation to a primary. Republicans who simply accepted the inarguable results of the 2020 presidential election became an endangered species. Voting against Donald Trump as speaker would be a political death wish.
The real twist in this plot comes after Trump is elected speaker. At long last, he has a perfect license to investigate any ridiculous conspiracy he can invent or imagine. Maybe he starts by settling a few old scores, convening select committees looking into former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton’s email servers and the Mueller investigation. From there, he can move on to Hunter Biden’s laptop and his own version of a Jan. 6 committee.
He may be banned from Twitter, but he’d be back on every TV screen in America in primetime. It’s Trump’s dream reality show. And if he wants to keep it going, he can stay in the role for as long as House Republicans keep voting for him, rather than being limited to just one more term if he were to win the 2024 presidential election.
I’m not trying to persuade you that come Jan. 3, 2023, Donald Trump will be speaker of the House. The overwhelming likelihood is that nightmare scenario will not come to pass. But it’s not impossible. When a party is driven not by ideas but by total loyalty commanded by a leader through fear, we’re in a dangerous place.
Even the “Twilight Zone” had happier endings.
Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. Follow him on Twitter @RepSteveIsrael.