Democrats’ next midterm challenge: reaching swing voters

As we enter the final month of the midterm election campaign, new polling by Schoen Cooperman Research suggests that the Democratic Party’s issues agenda is not resonating with the constituency that will ultimately determine the new balance of power in Congress: voters in swing districts.

Our survey among likely midterm election voters in 85 swing districts — which Cook Political Report rates as “toss-up,” “lean,” or “likely” to vote for one party — finds that Republicans’ economy-focused platform appeals more to this group than Democrats’ cultural issues-oriented agenda.

Indeed, Republicans have a clear and apparent advantage in terms of who these voters trust to handle the key issues facing the country — namely, inflation and managing the economy, as well as immigration and crime.

Only on the abortion issue, which is of secondary importance to this group, are Democrats favored. And perhaps surprisingly, Republicans are more trusted to uphold democratic norms and enforce election integrity — the core pillars of the Democratic agenda — which underscores the extent of the political headwinds the Democratic Party is facing this year. 

Just as tellingly, swing district voters believe that Republicans (47 percent) rather than Democrats (43 percent) would do a better job addressing the main challenges facing the nation over the next few years.

While Democrats are initially tied with Republicans, 46 percent to 46 percent, in the generic ballot, based on this group’s issue and policy preferences, it is clear that the momentum is with Republicans, and the movement in the horse race, as a result, is pro-Republican. 

After swing district voters see a positive message describing both parties’ platforms, Republicans come away with a 4-point advantage, 48 percent to 44 percent. 

If, as we expect, the GOP sharpens and enhances their economic attacks against Democrats in the final weeks of the campaign — by honing in on unrelenting inflation, the volatility in the stock market and the likely increase in gas prices following OPEC’s recent announcement — Democrats could lose a greater number of House seats than most are currently predicting. 

This is evidenced by our finding that the majority of swing district voters would rather support a candidate who prioritizes economic issues such as jobs, taxes and the cost of living (64 percent) over a candidate who prioritizes societal issues such as abortion, gun safety and democracy (27 percent). 

To that end, as we alluded to earlier, on the issue that matters most to these voters — controlling inflation — Republicans lead Democrats by 18-points, 50 percent to 32 percent, in terms of which party is most trusted to address it.

Majorities also believe Democrats should be doing more to address rising prices (74 percent), blame Democrats at least partially for inflation (73 percent) and disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the economy (58 percent).

In addition to rising prices and the economy, two other central components of the GOP’s platform — crime and immigration — also resonate strongly with swing district voters. 

Republicans lead Democrats by 7-points, 47 percent to 40 percent, in terms of which party is more trusted to lower the crime rate. Moreover, majorities agree that “Joe Biden and Democrats are soft on crime” (54 percent), say that they would feel “personally safer if more Republicans were elected to office” (51 percent), and blame Democrats at least partially for increasing crime rates (57 percent).

On immigration, Republicans also have a 7-point advantage on trust to manage legal immigration and a 2-point advantage on illegal immigration. Similar to increasing crime rates, most swing-district voters blame Democrats for the immigration surge at the southern border (66 percent).

Just as significantly, voters in swing districts are more likely to agree with the Republican position on immigration vis-à-vis forcing immigrants who enter the country illegally to leave (47 percent) rather than allowing them to stay and apply for citizenship (40 percent). 

While this group tends to align more with the GOP positions on the economy, crime, and immigration, they do side with Democrats when it comes to abortion. 

Nearly two-thirds of these voters support abortion being legal in their state under similar parameters as Roe v. Wade (62 percent) and also trust Democrats (49 percent) over Republicans (30 percent) to address this issue nationally. 

That being said, our data clearly indicates that swing district voters’ attitudes on the economy — and to a lesser extent, on crime and immigration — will be more determinate of their vote in November than abortion. 

Indeed, this group favors a candidate who prioritizes public safety issues like crime and illegal immigration (49 percent) over one who prioritizes societal issues such as abortion, gun safety, and democracy (43 percent). 

Perhaps most surprisingly, aside from abortion, Democrats don’t actually have the upper hand with these voters on the cultural and societal issues that they are running on, like gun laws and protecting democracy.

While most swing voters do favor stricter gun laws (60 percent), the majority also support the Supreme Court ruling that Americans have the right to carry a firearm in public for self-defense (57 percent), which suggests that some Democrats’ messaging on this issue is out-of-step with this core constituency’s sentiments.

Further, Republicans actually lead Democrats by 2-points in terms of which party is most trusted to both uphold democratic norms and enforce election integrity. Put another way, Democrats’ attempt to make the election a referendum on the GOP’s anti-democratic tendencies is largely falling flat with the voters this message is intended to reach.

Our data ultimately underscores the salience of Republicans’ midterm message — and the weakness of the Democratic issues agenda — and suggests that the race could swing further toward Republicans as the party aggressively makes its final pitch to voters.  

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”