Mitch McConnell rarely blunders, but when he does, he goes big

Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is the ultimate D.C. survivor. Few senators have even obtained much less retained power like McConnell. He achieved power by being laser-focused on his political base and whatever on his agenda is accomplishable. But McConnell made the biggest strategic error of his career by letting Trump skate on the second impeachment — and he’s paying the price now.

McConnell wins because he knows who his constituents are: Kentucky voters and the Republican Senate caucus. He’s not popular nationally, but McConnell does not need votes in places like New York or California. In Kentucky, McConnell is just popular enough to keep winning, being re-elected six times. As for the Senate caucus, there is no indication that his support has been meaningfully eroded.

Stuck with Trump, McConnell mostly won, playing a patient, passive-aggressive game. He got all the judges he wanted, moved forward the legislation he approved and torpedoed his political enemies — notably Steve Moore, allowing Trump to submit Moore’s appointment to the Federal Reserve, then watching the humiliation on the way out.

But McConnell blew it on “Impeachment, Part II.”

By keeping Trump’s political future alive, McConnell damaged his credibility by failing to punish Trump for sinking the Republican Senate candidates in the 2020 Georgia run-off, left Trump alive to cause more election mischief, and leaves Trump as the leading — and weakest — GOP candidate for president.

On top of the political damage, no man worth his salt should sit back and take the amount of abuse Trump has dished out to McConnell. Between the personal insults, threats to his power and attacks on his wife, that McConnell refuses to engage at all is taking the passive, wait-him-out approach way too far. Maybe this ultra-Zen behavior is good for the Dalai Lama, but McConnell is no Lama.

Waiting for disaster

McConnell may have assumed Trump would fade away after the events of Jan. 6. That’s just about the biggest political miscalculation of the last century. Even if he thought so, McConnell should have extracted a measure of revenge for Trump sinking the Republican candidates in Georgia. A win by either Sen. David Perdue or Sen. Kelly Loeffler would have put the GOP in the majority and provided far more leverage than Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) or Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) ever could.

And the costs keep mounting for McConnell, with Trump’s mischief primarily focused on Senate races. Trump has managed to sneak through all of his hand-picked favorites, with McConnell either meekly submitting to Trump’s endorsements or sitting out races. And — make no mistake — Trump is wretched at picking winners (unless their name is “Eric”).

The results are clear in polls using a sample size of at least 600. In three of four competitive open or Democratic-held Senate races where there is a concurrent governor’s contest, the Republican candidates are lagging their ticket-mates, often badly. In Ohio, The Hill/Emerson poll has J.D. Vance (R) ahead 1 point and Gov. Mike DeWine ahead by 14 points. New Hampshire has Don Bolduc (R) behind Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) by 3 points in the Trafalgar poll and by 6 points in the St. Anselm survey, while Gov. Chris Sununu (R) leads by 16 points. Blake Masters (R) lags Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by 3 points in the CBS/YouGov poll with Kari Lake (R) tied with Democrat Katie Hobbs.

And saving the worst for last, Herschel Walker (R) trails Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) by 1 point in Trafalgar and 2 points in Emerson. Yet, Trump bete noire Gov. Brian Kemp solidly leads by 9 points and 5 points, respectively. Walker may be the worst Republican nominee for a competitive Senate seat since wacky, ex-witch Christine O’Donnell in 2010. The fact that the fumbling Walker is even competitive with Warnock says more about how weak Warnock is — and is a further indictment of Trump’s behavior in the 2020 run-off.

Only in Nevada and Pennsylvania are the Republican Senate candidates performing well compared to the party’s gubernatorial candidates. Even so, Republicans are behind in Pennsylvania where Democratic nominee John Fetterman is the worst Democratic nominee in the cycle. Clearly in poor health and running a campaign largely focused on internet trolling, Fetterman’s candidacy would have been buried before Labor Day by a decent candidate.

Given the poor state of President Biden’s polling and historic precedent, Republicans should be cruising to a majority, but the awful performance of the Trump-picked candidates is making that result in doubt. Given the larger political trends, it is still very possible for a GOP sweep — even Herschel Walker could win.

Even worse than cost Republicans a Senate majority, Trump remains the frontrunner to be the 2024 nominee. While it is hardly clear that he will be the nominee, he does lead in all preference polling, and he will certainly be a force. Given Trump’s recent lack of interest in winning as opposed to demanding total loyalty and affirmation, he will likely be a highly negative factor throughout the process.

When GOP hopefuls should be positioning themselves to beat Biden or the eventual Democratic nominee, they will instead have to spend precious time and political capital placating Trump.

Missed opportunity

McConnell could have convicted Trump if he made the effort. The votes certainly were there. As it was, 57 senators voted to convict, including seven Republicans. With a conviction requiring 67 votes, McConnell just needed another 10 votes. With three Senators planning on retiring — Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), none of whom have warm feeling for Trump — and some 14 GOP senators not up for re-election until 2026, that’s plenty of opportunity.

McConnell could have — and should have — convicted Trump.

Donald Trump without the prospect of running for president is a neutered political figure.

Still important, he would not command the same attention and loyalty. As a Florida retiree searching for redemption, this twilight Trump would be less Ronald Reagan and more Morty Seinfeld.

By shrinking away from getting his final revenge on Trump and leaving him politically alive, McConnell cost himself the majority for this Senate term and possibly the next. Even worse, he allows a severely damaged Trump the opportunity to hand the Democrats another four years in the White House.

After decades of always making the shrewd move, McConnell’s judgment failed when faced with the most important political decision of his career.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.