Why Americans are concealing their true political beliefs

As the midterm elections quickly approach, Americans across the country are discussing their thoughts on trending policy topics with family, friends and colleagues. Just how truthful they are in those conversations, however, is now a reasonable question to consider. A new study from Populace Insights shines light on how deeply American adults are affected by social pressure to fit in, especially when it comes to hot-button political issues.

The report’s findings suggest that American popular culture, and the desire to fit into it, makes the American people look far more politically extreme than they really are. The study uses a clever methodology to measure agreement with statements that people might feel social pressure to reject, even in a private online survey. Differences between stated and privately held opinions were as high as 14 percentage points among all Americans and soared even higher among certain subgroups. 

Millennials, who have spearheaded the progressive left in the last decade but recently transitioned from youthful activism to the responsibilities of parenthood, are privately much more conservative when it comes to education issues. Three-quarters privately believe parents should have more influence on school curriculums (+26 points compared to their public opinion) and have significantly more private doubts about racism and gender ideology being taught in schools. 

Additionally, the youngest voters, those under 30, are privately rejecting ideals that are frequently associated with their generation. Just one-in-four privately believe CEOs should take public stances on social issues. What’s more, privately, the belief that racism in built into America drops from 65 percent to 42 percent. The way voters, including this youngest set, privately shy away from the most progressive beliefs may be part of the reason President Biden’s net approval rating fell 7 points during the week in which he announced a wealth-redistributing student loan forgiveness plan.

That is not to say real differences don’t exist between different age cohorts or political parties, because they do. But within the safety of an individual’s mind, almost every issue takes a step away from the accepted view of a self-prescribed tribe: Republicans are less set on overturning Roe v. Wade and have more reservations about turning the internet into a completely unregulated free speech zone. Democrats are less enthusiastic about masking to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and half as likely to think colleges should censor speech. 

Although many staunch partisans take a step back from the party line in their heads, their publicly pronounced stances have created an environment where independents, as well as certain racial minorities, are the least comfortable sharing their views in public, according to the study’s key findings. It is telling that one of the smallest differences between public and private opinions among various demographic subgroups comes when asking people if they have avoided saying something they believe for fear of offending someone. Half of Americans recall such an instance in the past year.

Perhaps this chilling environment helps explain why trust in American institutions has plummeted in recent years. If our society has created an environment where people do not feel free to share their opinions, the default expectation may now be that everyone is hiding something. It might also explain the rise of political candidates of otherwise questionable experience and ability that have been successful with a simple “say it like it is” campaign strategy. 

Unfortunately, there is no way to legislate people into being honest in conversations about current affairs. This problem must fall to civil society. One of the easiest things individuals can do is stop using politics as a litmus test for friendships and other social interactions.

Despite many articles encouraging people to embrace tribalism and cut out the “others” from our lives, psychologists have found that making friendship contingent on matching political views is not compatible with the strong relationships humans need to flourish. In solid friendships, individuals will have the intimacy needed to share true opinions, which improves the lost art of tolerating disparate views. In this way, we will be able to find common ground and rebuild trust in individuals and institutions that may not act according to our preferred political beliefs.

Erin Norman is the Lee Family Fellow and senior messaging strategist at State Policy Network.