Note to Republicans: Don’t play chicken with voters

Sometimes the analysis is obvious: Kowtowing to Donald Trump cost Republicans a big night.

And the GOP is likely to pay for this blown opportunity through the next two election cycles. Every indicator — from the late polling of individual races to presidential approval ratings to the “right track/wrong track” numbers — was set for a strong Republican election. But it’s looking like Trump was too much baggage to overcome. And, make no mistake, the Democrats didn’t win, the Republicans lost.

Even with many races still too close to call, it is clear the Democrats overperformed historically and relative to the latest polling. Going into Election Day, Republican Senate candidates led in the RealClearPolitics polling average in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Typically, the opposition party gets a solid majority of the undecided vote, which would translate into a net pickup of three seats. Even if the pollsters over-corrected from their misses in 2020 and 2016, Republicans should have had enough of a cushion.

And the national environment was ugly for Democrats, with poor approvals ratings for President Biden — roughly in line with approval ratings for Presidents Trump, Obama and Clinton when they saw a shellacking in their first midterms. The late shift toward the GOP was also normal, with fence-sitters eventually moving against the president’s party.

According to the national exit polls, Republicans were trusted more on inflation, crime, foreign policy and immigration. They were down on abortion.

Everything pointed to a Republican win edging toward the higher range of predictions.

The clear problem was Trump and his grievances. While Biden’s approval was underwater at 55 percent disapproval, Trump’s was worse at 58 percent. In addition, Trump’s bogus complaints about being cheated in 2020 — which he never shuts up about — are decisively rejected, with 61 percent believing Biden legitimately won (35 percent disagree); 80 percent are somewhat or very confident in their states’ elections.

The Jan. 6 riot, Trump’s amplifying his supports’ anger and Democratic rhetoric about threats to democracy had an impact, with 68 percent buying that democracy is under at least some threat. It’s worth noting that most Democratic candidates ran as fast as they could away from the poison of “defund the police,” while Republican candidates kept embracing toxic Trump.

Trump’s team of losers

But what really sunk Republicans was Trump’s most unhelpful meddling in the election itself. In race after race, he swung just enough of his hard-core supporters to push his motley crew of weak supplicants over the top in primaries; meanwhile, a clutch of Republican governors who defied Trump went on to smashing victories.

In state after state, independent-minded Republicans ran up much higher margins than Trump sycophants. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine won by 25 points, Senate candidate J.D. Vance by less than 7. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp won by nearly 8 points, while Senate candidate Herschel Walker is behind and headed to a run-off. Trump’s bete noire, Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger, performed even better, with an 8-point margin. Even below-the-radar races were better for Republicans attacked by Trump: Idaho Gov. Brad Little did better than Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), and South Dakota Sen. John Thune outran the state’s Trumpist Gov. Kristi Noem. Even Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s huge win is a slap back at Trump; Rubio is hardly a Trump favorite, and he is the only Republican Senate candidate who outperformed the polls.

The most glaring Trump disaster of all was in Pennsylvania. In a state where not only being native-born is a big deal but where voters tend to boost their hometown candidate, it was incredibly foolish for Trump to push a New Jersey TV doctor on Pennsylvania Republicans. If that were not bad enough, Dr. Mehmet Oz has dual citizenship and voted in elections in Turkey as recently as 2018, which makes him just half an American in any competent campaign attack ad.

Given the fact Democrats nominated a far-left slacker, the seat was primed to be retained by Republicans, even before John Fetterman’s poor health became obvious. Only Oz could have lost that race — and he did.

Just to put the cherry on top, Trump may have knocked Oz out with his unhelpful appearance right before Election Day.

This loss marked the first time since 1940-44 that Republicans lost two consecutive Senate races in Pennsylvania — and that’s all on Trump.

DeSantis and Biden win

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the clear big winner for Republicans. DeSantis won all over Florida and outperformed the polling. He showed how to win in politics. He governed competently, delivered results, passed legislation and added new groups to his voting coalition without alienating others — all things Trump spectacularly failed at.

DeSantis went from winning by 1 point in 2018 to winning by nearly 20 points last night.

Even better for DeSantis was Trump snubbing him at a late Florida election rally and going out of his way to insult DeSantis. Trump did his usual whining, needy-victim routine combined with nasty insults, and it blew up in his face.

All DeSantis had to do was sit back and let it happen.

DeSantis is now the favorite for the Republican nomination for president — even if the polls don’t show it. Trump’s tired act is in decline, and Trump is in the process of self-destructing.

President Biden won, too.

Biden can keep his hopes alive for a reelection run, even if the exit polls say 67 percent of Americans do not want him to do it. The good night by Democrats stops — or at least slows down — the feeding frenzy within the Democratic Party and keeps him from lame duck status for now.

Democrats may be losing the House, but this election feels like a win — and it is. For Republicans, it’s a bitter night. They threw away a huge opportunity. Too timid to push Trump away, unwilling to temper themselves enough to be viewed as a reasonable alternative, they dared the public to vote Democratic in the face of all the negativity — so the public did. Playing chicken with voters is always a dangerous game

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.