Texas primaries disappointing for Democrats, but bright spots remain

The results of the recent primaries in Texas were surprising — and, for Democrats, concerning. The overall trend was much greater turnout for Republicans. For instance, 62.8 percent of U.S. Senate primary votes were cast on the Republican side, as opposed to 37.2 percent for Democrats. In the race for governor, too, 60.2 percent of votes cast were in the Republican primary and 39.8 percent in the Democratic one.

This result contradicted Democratic optimism that this would finally be the year Texas goes blue and belied some earlier predictive metrics: In early voting, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the 15 largest districts by 465,000 to 420,000.

{mosads}The results of these primaries demonstrate clearly that the Democratic establishment needs to rethink their strategy if they want to capitalize on the potential energy of backlash to President Trump. Even more concerning was the lack of Democratic enthusiasm in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential election.

An especially telling example is the Democratic race in the 7th District, where Democratic votes numbered only 46.6 percent of the total, despite having voted for Clinton in 2016. This lack of enthusiasm is particularly striking as the primary there has gotten much attention for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s unusual efforts to undermine candidate Laura Moser, whom they have criticized for being a Washington insider.

Moser’s efforts to run an anti-establishment, liberal campaign were somewhat successful, as her second-place finish qualifies her for the runoff election in May. But Democrats would be unwise to choose Moser to represent the party in the general election. Instead, if they want to have a shot at flipping the district, they need a more moderate candidate who can win over centrist voters.

Indeed, that theme — moderate candidates who could appeal to swing voters — needs to be the centerpiece of Democratic strategy, especially in a deep red state like Texas. Moreover, instead of merely playing identity politics and supporting nontraditional candidates, Democrats need to understand that people vote with their pocketbooks. They need to run on a platform that focuses on tangible economic benefits.

If the Democrats want to flip districts in a conservative state such as Texas, it is imperative that they are able to show the average voter how voting blue will help them directly. In other words, they need to demonstrate that a vote for a Democratic candidate is a vote for inclusive economic growth. That is ultimately what matters most to most voters, especially in Texas, where the social liberalism of Democrats is unlikely to gain much traction.

The party must use these results to refocus their strategy. Even though turnout might not have been quite what Democrats had hoped for, the primaries still show that there are opportunities for Democratic growth in Texas. In the 23rd District, for example, turnout was heavier on the Democratic side, which accounted for 56.4 percent of total votes. In the 32nd District, meanwhile, voting was split nearly evenly at 49.2 percent Democrat and 50.8 percent Republican.

These primaries also demonstrated clear improvement from past years: In the 2010 and 2014 midterms, about 70 percent of primary votes were cast in the Republican races. The Democrats have an opening here to increase this energy and potentially flip seats in Texas but doing so will require a strategy designed to attract new voters to the party — not just galvanize liberals who are unlikely to defect from Democrats regardless.

Douglas E. Schoen (@DouglasESchoen) served as a pollster for President Clinton. A longtime political consultant, he is also a Fox News contributor and the author of 11 books, including “Putin’s Master Plan: To Destroy Europe, Divide NATO, and Restore Russian Power and Global Influence.”