COVID-19 has given Democrats opportunities to pass fundamental changes in state election rules. New statutes have simplified voter registration and facilitated early voting by mail or in person at polling places or conveniently located ballot boxes. Vote harvesting (the collection of ballots by organized groups) is occurring at a scale not seen since the hey-day of the machine politician.
The new laws currently work to the advantage of the Democratic Party. But instead of accusing Democrats of stealing elections, as former President Trump and other Republicans have done, Republicans must learn to accept the early-voting reality and exploit the new rules as best they can. Trying to roll back the changes won’t work, as one cannot stuff the citizen participation genie back in the bottle. Republican leaders may not like permissive rules, but they cannot ignore them.
Since the adoption of these permissive election laws, voter turnout has leaped. The percentage of eligible adults who voted in presidential elections increased to a high of 67 percent in 2020, a 7 percent jump since 2016 and the highest rate the United States has seen since the 19th century. Even in mid-term elections, which attract fewer voters, the participation rate has shifted dramatically upward, from 36 percent in 2014 to 47 percent in 2022.
In the four years prior to 2020, at least 30 states, including closely contested Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, had eased voting procedures by introducing such measures as same-day registration, off-site ballot boxes, “no excuse” mail-in balloting, offers to pre-pay postage of mail-in ballots and official mailing of mail-in ballot applications to all registered voters.
Voting day has turned into voting weeks. Groups are organizing ballot harvests by going to campuses, senior citizen centers, nursing homes and elsewhere to facilitate registration and collect ballots to be deposited in conveniently placed boxes. Election Day voting has become the exception instead of standard practice. In 2020, only 28 percent of the vote was cast in-person on official Election Day, the first Tuesday after November’s first Monday, according to an estimate by scholars at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The new rules fit the Democratic Party agenda. Ever since the Bush-Gore contest in 2000, Democrats have accused Republicans of suppressing the vote, and throughout the 21st century, they have pushed for a relaxation of procedures designed to protect the integrity of the ballot box. In 1996, nine out of 10 voters cast their ballot in person on Election Day, but by 2016 only six out of 10 voters chose the traditional practice.
Mail-in vote voters are disproportionately Democratic, but the practice did not differ sharply along party lines until 2020. With the rise of social distancing as a partisan political issue in 2019, partisan differences over the best way to cast a vote intensified. According to MIT researchers, the share of Democrats who mailed in their vote in 2020 was twice that of Republicans, 60 percent to 30 percent.
Many Republicans fear that the new laws will undermine election integrity, and in some states Republican legislators are rolling back some changes enacted during the pandemic. But it is not easy to undo reforms made in the name of democracy and citizen participation. Even after Republicans advanced in state legislatures in the 2020 elections and COVID concerns receded, the trend toward permissive rules has continued. Twenty-seven states eased mail-in procedures in 2021 (as compared to only 13 states that imposed tighter restrictions), 20 states relaxed registration procedures (as compared to just five states that tightened them), 15 states facilitated early in-person voting (and only one limited it) and eight states passed new laws allowing convicted felons to vote. According to one advocacy group, 40 percent of eligible voters live in states that in 2021 widened access to the ballot box.
The result: Despite rampant inflation and an unpopular president, Democrats retained control of the Senate, gained three governorships and made a strong showing in state legislative races. Although many factors affected the outcomes of these contests, it is almost certain Democrats would have had less to celebrate had 2016 election rules been in place.
The solution for Republican leaders is not to whine about election stealing or struggle to reverse the rules but to urge their fellow partisans to vote as early as possible and to organize groups that harvest ballots at religious gatherings, sports events, grocery stores, main streets and shopping malls. If Democrats are exploiting every opportunity to collect votes for weeks in advance of the official election, Republican leaders cannot tell their loyal followers they should vote only on Election Day itself. When they impose that restriction upon themselves, Republicans start their touchdown drives from 10 yards behind their own goal line.
Nor can Republicans wait until the last minute to give up their attachment to traditional education procedures and announce an aggressive new strategy. Old practices die slowly — especially among conservatives. Rather than rail against stolen elections, Republicans need to embrace immediately the permissive election environment they cannot avoid.
If this causes discomfort, they might console themselves with the thought that if they succeed at ballot harvesting, their political opponents may begin to rethink their position and reach the conclusion that election integrity needs stronger protection after all.
Paul E. Peterson is a professor of government at Harvard University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.