Donald Trump could never make it as a professional poker player. Trump only knows raising and bluffing — in the poker world, those players are known as “maniacs” … and eventually they all bust out. Trump may be leading in Republican primary polls, but it is looking more and more like he will bust out this time.
Trump raises the stakes more aggressively than anyone in politics. And being the “maniac” has served him well. In 2016, he bluffed and blustered his way through a soft GOP field. He also knew when he had the cards, and his opponents were bluffing. When then-Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus tried his hand at raising back at Trump, pressing him to sign a “no third party” pledge, Trump recognized it as a worthless scrap of paper and called that bluff.
Trump held a strong hand in 2016. He had the deepest experience in the cut-and-thrust of national media. He seized on a couple of issues that electrified voters. Faced with a tenuous, inexperienced field, Trump swept them aside. Maniacs do great at soft tables.
Trump’s problem heading into 2024 is that he holds a much weaker hand — and everyone has seen his play.
It’s hard to bluff when everyone knows you don’t have the cards.
In contrast to 2016 when Trump was able to pick off the weaker candidates and cut the legs out from anyone who pulled into second place to him, Trump’s attacks have not worked thus far against the consistent number two, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Starting at the end of October and the rollout of the very lame “DeSanctimonious” sobriquet (not that “Meatball” is any better), Trump has taken increasingly shrill shots at DeSantis. But he has done nothing to dent the governor.
Since October, in no poll has DeSantis lost ground against Trump. In fact, he has consistently gained ground. Trump led DeSantis in every poll in October, including a 64 percent to 29 percent lead according to Trump’s pollster, McLaughlin. Since then, Trump’s increasingly strident attacks on DeSantis have achieved nothing.
Trump’s lead on DeSantis has fallen across the board. YouGov had Trump up 55 percent to 24 percent in October, but just 42 percent to 32 percent on Feb. 7. Harvard-Harris has Trump falling from a 55-17 percent lead to a 48-28 percent lead. Morning Consult shows less erosion, from a 49-24 percent lead to 49-31 percent in the most recent poll. Republican-focused Echelon has Trump collapsing from a 56-34 percent lead to trailing DeSantis 48-43 percent one-on-one and 36-34 percent in a multi-way field. Even McLaughlin has Trump down to a 43-31 percent multi-way lead and a 52-41 percent one-on-one lead.
Even worse for Trump, the higher sample polls (which are generally of much higher quality) show Trump in worse shape. The Bulwark (1,000 sample), a Never-Trump group, has Trump down 39-28 percent to DeSantis in a multi-way field and down 44-28 percent one-on-one. Club for Growth (3,015 sample) has DeSantis ahead 49-40 percent one-on-one, but Trump leading in a multi-way poll — but only by 4 points. The only Trump lead in a high-sample poll is with Morning Consult (3,549 sample).
Trump played “chicken” once too often
The inability to knock down DeSantis has made Trump more desperate. His “globalist” attack was a dud, so the table maniac raised the stakes, re-posting an accusation that DeSantis “groomed” teenage girls. On top of that, Trump refused to rule out a third-party run. It all adds up to Trump once again playing chicken with Republican leaders and voters: If you don’t back me, I’ll wreck GOP hopes.
But “chicken” only works when someone chickens out, and that is not likely this time.
For one thing, the Trump attacks are getting more personal and outlandish. It’s one thing to call Ted Cruz a liar or snark at Marco Rubio’s height — they’ve heard that for years … it’s something entirely different to imply your opponent is a pedophile. That kind of very personal attack embitters your opponent and his supporters to the point you can’t get them back for the general election.
Trump cannot afford to lose any more Republican voters.
In 2016, Trump made up for the loss of the “Never-Trump” Republicans with working class voters (and there were not that many Never-Trumper Republicans to begin with). As it stands now, the polls are mixed with Trump and Biden both having leads in the national polls. But Trump clearly has a ceiling. He has never polled above 50 percent in a major ballot test. The best estimate is that Trump cannot break above 48 percent.
Unfortunately, the advantage-Trump polls do not provide detailed crosstabs to tease out the differences between them and the advantage-Biden polls. But the YouGov polling shows Trump with weakening favorables from Republicans at just 74 percent favorable and 21 percent unfavorable — very high for a recent President. Trump would need at least 85 percent of the GOP vote to win in 2024 and would still need to win independents handily.
If Trump permanently alienates enough Republicans, he cannot beat Biden. Forget about a third-party run. No third-party candidate has topped 25 percent of the vote since 1912 — or received any electoral votes since 1968. Trump would surely throw the election to the Democrats.
And Trump has more to lose by losing than any contender. If Trump loses, the Democrats are certain to go after him on all legal fronts. To date, the Biden Justice Department and other prosecutors have been cautious and calculating, fearful of creating a backlash that would help Trump. Even worse would be losing at trial. However, a Trump defeated in 2024 would have no real political future. There is no chance a two-time loser could mount a new presidential campaign at age 82.
Prosecutors in a post-2024 world with Trump not a threat would no longer have to worry about appearances or losing on some of their charges. They wouldn’t have to make sure all charges are substantial. If Trump so much as tore a tag off a mattress, they could press charges.
The very real danger Trump is putting himself in may not matter to him — he may not be able to even perceive the risk. But at some point, it has to sink in.
For Republican Party elected officials and leaders, it’s time to stop being the nits at the poker table. Trump no longer holds the cards. His bluffing days should be over.
It remains to be seen if GOP leaders can figure that out.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.