A merger of courage and self-interest is needed to avoid a Biden-Trump rematch

“Courage,” Nelson Mandela said, is “not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it.” 

It’s time for some prominent Republicans and Democrats to overcome their fears and apprehensions to head off a debacle: a Joe Biden v. Donald Trump presidential race next year.

Republican politicians fear the Trump base; Democrats fear the fallout of telling an incumbent president to step aside. Most voters want fresh faces, and a third-party candidacy won’t cut it. 

There is a huge difference. Trump, as Republican Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) says, is “unfit” for office, a view shared privately by more than a few other Republican officeholders. Trump faces the possibility of multiple indictments, was found liable for sexual assault and defamation and continues to peddle the lie the 2020 election was fraudulent and defend the violent January 6 attack. 

Biden has been a good president and is cognitively fine. But his age – he’ll be 82 soon after Election Day – worries many voters, and his communications skills are poor. 

A Washington Post/ABC News poll last weekend sent shockwaves through Democratic circles. It showed Biden running seven points behind Trump, with only a 36 percent approval. Biden got negative marks on his handling of the economy and cognitive ability to do the job.  

Democrats are understandably nervous over Biden’s reelection prospects. The overarching voter concern, his age, will only get more problematic. 

Today’s economy is strong, unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 54 years, wages are decent and inflation, while too high, is coming down. But most experts expect a recession. With even a modest one, the president’s standing on the economy will worsen.

That leaves little room for improvement.

This outlook rests largely on the White House’s notion that only Biden can defeat Trump because, well, he’s done it before. That’s dubious. Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, figures another Democrat, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.) might beat Trump by close to double digits, while Biden could lose. 

Yet even before the former president was found guilty of sexual assault and ordered to pay E. Jean Carroll $5 million in defamation damages, I thought he was unlikely to be the 2024 nominee; my friends tell me this is wishful thinking.
Looking ahead, all signs indicate that Atlanta’s prosecutor will soon charge Trump with trying to overturn the election results. His own former attorney general, William Barr, said Trump’s taking and concealing classified documents after he left the White House is “serious,” as there’s “probably some pretty good evidence.” Special counsel Jack Smith is vigorously investigating Trump’s incitement of the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol to try to block congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election, which he lost. 

Sure, Trump’s poll standings haven’t suffered yet. He’s way ahead in the GOP race, and few of his supporters are wavering. After the sexual assault verdict, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said it made him want “to vote for him twice.” (By that logic Trump knows how to get more votes from the Alabama lawmaker.)

Still, there are more Republicans worried about his electability and whether the cumulative effect will take a toll.  

Trump is a survivor, seemingly immune to feeling normal emotions. But he has never been indicted before and is now a certified sexual predator. I looked up the advice law firms give to criminal defendants on coping with that stress: talk to close friends (Trump doesn’t seem to have any), exercise regularly and take care of your physical health (golf, anyone?), don’t be a control freak (lots of luck) and seek out a therapist (Trump says talking to ace New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman is his therapy).

By October this stress will be intense.  

Imagine governing the next term. Trump vows he’d seek “retribution.” He’d likely abandon Ukraine, disrupt U.S. alliances and surround himself with unquestioning loyalists with little regard for rules or norms. There will be no Jim Mattis. 

What’s necessary is for more Republican politicians to join Mitt Romney and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in acquiring backbones. The media should give as much time to critics like Chris Christie and former advisers (Mattis, John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, H.R. McMaster, John Bolton) who should now, not next year, warn what an existential danger Trump is to American national security.  

Another Biden term wouldn’t be dangerous, but it might be dreary. Republicans likely would control Congress for much of that time, making Biden’s ability to achieve his agenda difficult. The age concerns will only grow.

Don’t be surprised if a more serious challenger (probably a governor) enters the fray.  

Knowing it’s late, ideally a group of close allies, such as Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), could make the case that he would bow out as a statesman with a rare one-term record of success and avoid the personal pain of Republican attacks on his family and a bitter campaign, which he could lose. 
The chances of any of this happening are slim. But maybe, just maybe, there will be a merger of courage and self-interest. 

Albert Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts “Politics War Room” with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.