Are liberal social activists driving voters to the GOP?

A recent Gallup poll shows that nearly four-in-ten Americans consider themselves conservative on social issues, up four points since last year and at a decade-long high. But the topline data doesn’t tell the full story. Americans may be more likely to identify as socially conservative, but a majority hold viewpoints that would traditionally be considered liberal and have been trending in that direction over the last several decades. 

Looking at historical data on moral issues provides a granular view of how American attitudes about social issues have changed. In 2001, when the number of self-identified social conservatives was about the same as today, 53 percent of Americans viewed gay or lesbian relations as “morally wrong.” Data from 2022 shows that number has been more than cut in half. Two decades ago, 35 percent of Americans supported same-sex marriage — which has now jumped to 71 percent. In the same period, the number of people believing abortion is morally acceptable increased 10 points to a 52 percent majority. The country was split on the morality of premarital sex in 2001, but now three-quarters of Americans think it’s fine.

Some issues haven’t changed much over time, though — nearly all Americans still believe cloning humans is wrong, and there is just a seven-point difference in 20 years in the belief that cloning animals is morally acceptable. Changes in moral perceptions of suicide and extramarital affairs have also remained relatively steady. This suggests there are some values Americans hold firm on even as society evolves.

Democrats may learn the hard way that Americans have some hard boundaries on social issues. Topics like late-term abortion, racial justice, and transgender rights are getting daily frontpage attention, and far-left liberals, which the Gallup study estimates are just eight percent of the population, are dragging the Democratic party further and further left. Brands like Bud Light and Target have felt the pain and even the White House had to apologize for the inappropriate and disrespectful behavior of transgender activists who pushed boundaries at a formal event on the South Lawn.

The way liberal activists prod the limits of delicate social issues without pushback from mainstream Democrats likely contributes to why an increasing number of Americans see themselves as social conservatives despite becoming objectively more liberal. There is also evidence that the slip away from the liberal label may translate to party identification and other policy areas as well.

Data from a recent poll by the State Policy Network (where I am a fellow) shows that voters are slightly more likely to believe Republicans have a “common-sense approach to governing” — 51 percent agree, compared to 49 percent who say the same thing about Democrats. While this is a minor difference, it is worth noting the slight edge comes from Democrats being significantly more likely to give Republicans good marks (30 percent) than vice versa (17 percent of Republicans say Democrats govern with common sense). 

Moderate Democrats giving Republicans high marks on having a common-sense approach to governing and Americans being less likely to call themselves social liberals point to a Democratic Party in trouble with mainstream voters because of a relatively small number of liberal social activists.

The general values that drove greater acceptance of once taboo topics like same-sex marriage and abortion are still prevalent today. Gallup identified a lack of consideration, tolerance, and respect as the most important problem with the state of moral values in America last year, which is the same problem that topped concerns in 2012. Successful persuasion on sensitive social topics traditionally used these themes to change hearts and minds. 

But those approaches seem to have been dropped in favor of in-your-face activism that demonizes those who have reservations or questions. Even the White House agrees — today’s top liberal social activists don’t show respect or consideration for others. It is already driving voters to change the way they label themselves. It may just drive a whole segment of moderate voters to pull the lever for Republicans. 

Erin Norman is the Lee Family Fellow and Senior Messaging Strategist at State Policy Network.