If the two-party system is over, say goodbye to the GOP

As the 2024 election draws near, voters are dissatisfied with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump: 59 percent do not want Biden to run again; 56 percent feel the same way about Trump.

No Labels, with $70 million in dark money in hand, maintains that the “two major parties [are] dominated by angry and extremist voices driven by ideology and identity politics rather than what’s best for our country.” It is threatening to run a third-party ticket headed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and former Utah Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman, or some other bipartisan combination.

Voters are a finicky lot. In 2008, for example, 47 percent were dissatisfied with choosing between Barack Obama and John McCain. Today, a Gallup poll finds 63 percent retrospectively approve of Obama’s performance in office, while the late John McCain is fondly remembered for his heroism during the Vietnam War.

Voters often want more than just two choices. Today, 47 percent say they would consider a third-party candidate. But when those choices are presented to them, voters are often less than enthusiastic. It is hard, for example, to find a wave of public sentiment yearning for a Joe Manchin presidency.

The real threat to the two-party system comes from the Republican Party. Donald Trump destroyed the Republican establishment and transformed the party into his own personal organization. Stunningly, the thrice-indicted Trump is the leading GOP candidate who could be seeking the presidency next year from a jail cell.

Trump’s hold on the GOP stems from the grievances of his mostly white, blue-collar supporters. Reporting to the federal courthouse for his third arrest, Trump posted on Truth Social: “IT IS A GREAT HONOR, BECAUSE I AM BEING ARRESTED FOR YOU.”

Historically, the Republican establishment played a major role in presenting honorable candidates with experience in government who adhered to conservative principles. The Grand Old Party prided itself in nominating Thomas E. Dewey, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan, the two Bushes, John McCain and Mitt Romney. When another establishment-endorsed candidate, Richard Nixon, sullied the presidency a group of GOP leaders put party loyalty aside and told Nixon that it was time to depart.

Donald Trump’s 2015 descent down the escalator to announce his candidacy was symbolic. It marked the fall of the party establishment and the beginning of a hostile takeover by a talented showman who excelled in the performance aspect of politics. A now-exiled member of the establishment, Liz Cheney, states, “What we’ve done in our politics is to create a situation where we’re electing idiots.”

Republican presidential candidate Will Hurd recently told a gathering of Iowa Republicans: “Donald Trump is running for president in order for him to stay out of jail.” Hurd is right. A conviction on any of the charges levied against the former president could send him to prison for the rest of his life. Only the comforts of the White House, and a president armed with a pen who is willing to pardon Trump, can salvage what remains of his life.

Meanwhile, any reports of the Democratic party’s demise are highly overrated. During the past two years, the centrist and progressive wings of the party have united behind President Biden. What opposition there is to a second Biden term centers on one issue: his age. Unlike the third-party candidacy of Strom Thurmond in 1948, who objected to Harry Truman’s civil rights policy, or the challenges by Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy to Lyndon B. Johnson’s Vietnam War 20 years later, the policies pursued by the Biden-Harris administration are popular both within the party and without.

If things don’t change, the Republican Party is finished. Republicans are fighting against a political demography that is younger, more racially and culturally diverse and more highly educated. Between 2016 and 2024, there will be 32 million new voters while in the same period, there will be 20 million fewer older voters. Since 2008, young voters have awarded more than 60 percent of their ballots to Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and 55 percent to Hillary Clinton. Older voters have given majorities to GOP presidential candidates since 2004, including Donald Trump in 2020.

Unless Republicans bid Donald Trump adieu, the Republican Party will find itself at odds with a younger generation of voters who will shape the politics of the 21st century. Without the ability to adapt, the Republican Party is in danger of fracturing like a shattered piece of glass. 

What will come after it is something we can hardly imagine.  But it won’t be the two-party system as we know it.

John Kenneth White is a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America. His latest book, co-authored with Matthew Kerbel, is titled “American Political Parties: Why They Formed, How They Function, and Where They’re Headed.”