Who will be the next House Speaker? A political scientist weighs in.

Who will emerge as the next Speaker of the House after Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s removal? Although this is the first time in American history that a Speaker has been ousted, there are elections for Speaker at the start of every Congress, so the process is relatively understood. Having studied these specific elections as an academic, I can offer some guidelines that will likely shape the vote.

Members of Congress tend to elect Speakers who can help them reach their specific goals. For many members, reelection to office is their paramount concern. They want a Speaker who can make their elections easier, perhaps through campaign contributions to fatten their coffers. Federal officeholders will commonly use leadership PACs to collect and distribute money to other elected officials in their party. Current House Republicans with leadership PACs that were active during the past election cycle include Steve Scalise, Patrick McHenry and Cathy McMorris Rodgers.

Another goal may be specific leadership positions. Members may wish to sit on certain committees, or to be in positions of power within the caucus itself. This technique was used by McCarthy in 2022 when he promised Paul Gosar and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who had both been stripped of their committee assignments, that they would be back on committees and “may have better committee assignments” if Republicans took the House majority.

Members also have specific policy goals. If a member is in alignment with the caucus on the important issues of the day, they have a better chance at becoming Speaker. Look for a contender to emerge who is in alignment with the GOP on topics like funding the government, the conflict in Ukraine and investigations into the Biden administration. 

Some representatives are also focused on matters of process within the House itself. These members often have concerns about how business is conducted, such as how the bills are written or amended. In the past, this has been personified by demands emerging from the Freedom Caucus, whose members have wanted to formalize the “Hastert Rule” for legislation, ensuring that a bill can’t come up for a vote unless it is supported by a majority of the GOP caucus. This suggests that a potential Speaker will likely need to have the blessing of this group. 

Finally, most Republicans want to stay in the good graces of former President Donald Trump. Though out of office, Trump is the de facto leader of the party, which makes his implicit or explicit endorsement important to members of the GOP caucus. Trump himself has been floated as a potential Speaker, but demurred when asked last year about serving in this position. If Trump puts his support behind a member of Congress, look for many others to fall in line. 

Trying to meet all of these requirements is a tall order. A further complication is the tumultuous relationships that Republicans have had with their most recent Speakers: John Boehner resigned from the position and Paul Ryan declined to run for reelection. If the new Speaker fails to meet many of these guidelines, another vote for removal may be coming. 

Michael E. Bednarczuk, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Austin Peay State University. He studies political behavior and public service.