Kevin McCarthy is no longer the House Speaker. He was ousted by a 216-210 vote, as a group of eight Republicans sided with Democrats to end his tenure. These hardline Republicans used their votes to repudiate McCarthy for working with Democrats to pass a short-term funding bill that was needed to avoid a government shutdown on Oct. 1.
His efforts demanded unprecedented actions. Will this set the stage for a new period of cooperation necessary for our government to function, or ongoing disfunction fomented by internal Republican conflicts?
The bad news is that the funding bill passed only bought the government 45 days of fiscal relief. That means that another shutdown threat looms leading up to Nov. 17.
The list of Republicans vying for the House Speakership continues to grow. The problem faced by them all is that the group of hardline Republicans that ejected McCarthy hold the controlling card in their election — and their ability to craft and shepherd legislation that can pass in the Senate and get signed into law. The razor-thin Republican House majority essentially evaporates by these hardliners, leaving the next prospective House Speaker in no better position than McCarthy.
McCarthy’s compromise with House Democrats was political suicide for his leadership role. He should be commended for making such a personal sacrifice for the betterment of the country. Unfortunately, the same environment will continue for the next Republican Speaker elected.
So what can be done to position the House to function over the next 15 months until the 119th Congress is elected and seated?
The first possibility is to build a coalition with Democrats that give a Democrat the House Speakership. Such an action would be unprecedented, with the minority party holding the position. Yet with the hardliners present, it is imperative that some Democratic support will be needed to neutralize the impact of the hardliners. Otherwise, any actions of the new Speaker will result in calls to remove him or her, creating an endless stream of congressional chaos, guaranteeing disfunction that is destructive to our nation’s wellbeing.
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority leader, is the obvious Democratic option. This would require carefully crafted agreements that would appease enough Republican and Democratic House members. It would also move the House to the left. Given the tension between the two parties, a coalition of this sort would require compromise to execute and finesse to maintain.
Governments around the world use coalitions, particularly when their political system offers voters three or more party options. Given the slim Republican majority that includes the hardliners, this situation effectively demands a coalition government to function. If the hardliners are unable to cooperate with their fellow Republicans, then the Democrats offer the next viable option.
Recall how Abraham Lincoln built his Cabinet with several of his rivals. This unprecedented action was needed during the enormous upheavals brought about by the nation’s disunity that spawned the Civil War. His “team of rivals” effectively created a coalition of people with highly divergent views.
Another unprecedented alternative is to move completely out of the House to find the next Speaker. Such a person would need to be satisfactory to 218 House members — Republicans or Democrats — to gain the necessary support and votes. Given that the 212 Democrats remain staunchly united, what are needed are six Republican House members to tip the balance in their favor. Ideally many more, preferably the majority, would support the nominee.
A third option is to elect one of the hardline Republicans as the House Speaker, or someone who they can support. As the idiom says, “keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.” Jim Jordan would meet this requirement, as he has the support of the hardliners. Such a move seems to make no sense, given the vitriolic tone during the current Congress. Yet whatever such a Speaker would choose to do, they would lack the necessary widespread votes to accomplish. In such a case, the majority of Republicans would provide the requisite checks and balances to keep order and limit the influence of the hardliners.
None of these options are particularly attractive, or perhaps even possible. Yet the status quo, of permitting a small group of hardline Republican to control the House, is an even less appetizing. If a mainstream Republican is elected the House Speaker, he or she will face the same obstacles that Kevin McCarthy faced.
With the next significant budget vote set for November, regurgitating another budget standoff that threatens a government shutdown is unacceptable. The time to obviate such an event is today. Building the necessary House coalitions today is imperative.
No matter what party each member represents, they first and foremost represent the American people. Let’s hope they do not lose sight of this responsibility.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.