The 2024 presidential election is set for Nov. 5, 2024, just under 13 months away. As the Republican hopefuls maneuver among themselves for attention and support, Democrats are sitting back as the incumbent party, with President Biden as their supposed candidate.
Yet at nearly 81 years of age, the Democrats are wise enough to know that over the next year, many things can happen to upend this plan and force them to put forward an alternative White House hopeful.
Two additional people have expressed interest in the Democratic nomination: Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. Kennedy recently dropped his bid and plans to run as an independent. Neither are given much chance to upend the incumbent president in the election. In addition, Cornell West is now running as an independent, further muddying the election waters amongst non-GOP candidates.
Dean Phillips (MN-3) has called for Biden to not be the Democrats’ candidate, citing that he would provide a weak alternative to Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Phillips’s comments were met with criticism (or silence) by Democratic lawmakers, most of whom have remained steadfastly behind Biden.
Though Phillips initially excluded himself as among the possible replacements on the ticket, he recently indicated he would be willing to serve, though he admits there are others better suited for the nomination. Indeed, if a replacement must be inserted, Phillips’s moderate views make him a viable candidate to attract independents and perhaps even liberal-leaning Republicans in the suburbs, in the events that Trump is on the Republican ticket.
So who else could step in if Biden’s health deteriorates or some other factor emerges that makes him unable or unfit to run?
Among governors, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer’s name has been mentioned as a possible presidential hopeful. As the governor of a swing state, Whitman has maneuvered through numerous delicate issues that give her experience that would be invaluable in the White House.
Two others who have shown interest include JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gavin Newsom of California. Given that both come from deep-blue states, they would provide little added value to the ticket in attracting moderate voters or snagging support in a purple state.
Nonetheless, it would serve the Democratic Party well to have all three positioned to pivot into the primaries to offer a viable choice if they are needed.
Among senators, a name that has received some mentions is Mark Warner of Virginia. He would provide an interesting selection, given that Virginia is a swing state. Cory Booker from New Jersey has also shown interest for the nomination. Given his relatively young age, he has a long runway before him that will almost certainly lead to a serious run for the nomination at some point in the future.
Any such discussions likely include Vice President Kamala Harris. However, her approval rating continues to languish at or below 40 percent, making her a less than ideal candidate. Whether the Democratic leadership would view her favorably remains to be seen.
It is in the Democrats’ best interests to have Biden as their candidate. Incumbents hold a distinct advantage to be reelected. Yet, with his age certainly showing, voter concern is real. Preempting such concerns with him graciously stepping aside in favor of someone else may be reasonable at this time, given that it could become a necessity over the next several months.
With the primaries still over four months away, the time to prepare is now, before the situation becomes urgent.
The worst-case scenario for Democrats is that Biden becomes ill during the primaries — or even worse, during the weeks leading up to Election Day. Such a disruption could hand the election to the Republicans, as voters raise doubt of his viability to serve.
Democrats remain mostly quiet about the issue. Yet behind closed doors, a Plan B has been formulated and people have been contacted and are ready to act. Far too much is at stake to allow an eleventh-hour crisis to derail their election hopes.
In an ideal world, President Biden’s health should not be a factor. In the real world, an octogenarian holding the nation’s most powerful position is a risk, not just to the Democratic Party but to the nation. Whether any Plan B ever gets put into action remains to be seen.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.