Ukraine will be on the ballot in the 2024 Republican primaries

On Dec. 6, Republicans will gather in Tuscaloosa, Ala. for the final presidential primary debate in 2023. During the session, seven candidates will have one last chance to try and win over Republican voters ahead of the hectic election cycle next year.

After the debate, Republicans will vote over several months to select their nominee for the 2024 presidential election. The first two Republican primary presidential elections will be held in Iowa and New Hampshire in January.

As in previous debates, Republican voters will see how the candidates stand on various issues. The topics will include abortion, education, gun control, border security, immigration, and the economy. And for the first time in over a decade, foreign policy will play an important role in the primary process as well.

As Russia’s war against Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, many American voters continue to support aid to Ukraine. According to a recent poll by the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs, 47 percent of surveyed voters they support U.S. defense aid to Ukraine. Support is robust in both parties, as 57 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans support sending aid to Ukraine, even though Republican support has noticeably fallen since the summer.

Nonetheless, American citizens still view the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an important priority.

Although the American public continues to support aid to Ukraine, there is growing opposition among Republican presidential candidates. The presidential hopefuls are divided into two groups. The first camp consists of former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and current North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. These have all argued in favor of sending aid to Ukraine.

Haley has previously said that supporting Ukraine is in America’s national interest, while Christie said that the U.S. should continue to support and help Ukraine in its war against Russia. Hutchinson stated that the U.S. should do everything it can to ensure Russia pays for its actions, and Burgum argued that supporting Ukraine was a bargain. These candidates have continuously highlighted the atrocities the Russians have committed during their war. They have said that Ukraine is defending democracy and Western values, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin must be stopped.

Despite these points, far-right voters and their candidates appear to be gaining steam. In the other camp of presidential hopefuls are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former President Donald Trump. Unlike their counterparts, these three individuals are skeptical of a U.S. role in Ukraine.

DeSantis has previously stated that there is at least not sufficient interest for the U.S. to escalate its role in Ukraine, and that the Ukraine War is not a “vital” U.S. national interest. Trump has claimed he could end the war instantly by discussing the matter with Vladimir Putin, likely on terms very favorable to Putin. (More recently, Trump said that he was pleased by Putin’s praise of him.) Ramaswamy has gone even further, pledging explicitly to cut off American aid altogether.

According to recent polling data, the next Republican presidential nominee will most likely be Trump or DeSantis, meaning that whoever is selected will be less supportive of Ukraine than the Biden administration has been.

DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Trump are not the only ones with negative views toward Ukraine. Like some Republican voters, many Republican lawmakers have also questioned sending aid to Ukraine, and the opposition is growing. The most recent development was in October, where members of the House and Senate debated the U.S. budget for 2024. In the recent versions of the spending bill, defense aid for Ukraine was cut. This was seen as a “stopgap measure to avert a government shutdown.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said that he will look to include future U.S. aid to Ukraine, but some Republicans have pushed for this aid to be linked with funding for the U.S. border with Mexico. This would only further delay approval for sending additional aid to Ukraine, as U.S. border security interjects numerous divisive domestic political issues, spanning from immigration and border crossing to the economy and national security. Nonetheless, several Republican lawmakers would be happy to delay this process.

Other elected Republican officials attempted to go one step further. In September, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) introduced an amendment to the U.S. defense funding bill, calling for an end to defense aid to Ukraine. Although the amendment was shot down, 93 Republican members of the House voted in favor — nearly half of House Republicans. The issue has only become more complicated as, according to a recent Axios report, several Republican lawmakers are now attempting to undermine President Biden’s plans to send additional aid to Ukraine. This is forming a greater divide between American voters.

In short, recent polls favor the anti-Ukraine Republican candidates vying for the White House, and Republican lawmakers see the writing on the wall. Despite these trends, more American voters still support aid to Ukraine. The American public understands the significance of the sacrifices that Ukrainians have made to defend their country.

Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and democracy, something the Americans did centuries ago as they fought for their own independence. What’s more, at a great discount (mostly just by providing hand-me-down weapons), the U.S. has helped the Ukrainians decimate the world’s second-strongest army without expending American lives.

Ukraine aid should not be taken for granted, and it will be a major talking point during the 2024 Republican primary elections. Fortunately, the American public continues to support this Eastern European state, and wants it to succeed. For this to happen, voters must make their voices heard during the primaries next year.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.