What the rush of congressional retirements means

The recently expelled George Santos isn’t the only representative leaving Congress. Over the past several weeks, a number members have announced that they are either resigning or retiring, with the expectation that more will follow suit.

Life as a representative or senator comes with great power and responsibility, and many are easily reelected. Given these perks, why are members leaving, and what does this mean for both this session of Congress and the next?

First, the scope of retirements and resignations for this Congress could be quite large. Following Rep. Patrick McHenry’s retirement announcement on Tuesday, almost 40 lawmakers have said that they will not seek reelection. Driving this number was a spike in November, when over 10 made this announcement. Such a large number in November is unusual, as such announcements are typically made in the early months of an election year. This suggests that more may be on the horizon, which could make this a substantial retirement class. 

The reasons for retirement vary but usually fall into predictable categories. Several lawmakers are running for a different office: Sen. Mike Braun is seeking to become the next governor of Indiana, while Rep. Jim Banks is now seeking to fill the seat vacated by Braun. Others are pursuing career opportunities outside of elected office, such as Rep. Bill Johnson, who will be leaving the House to serve as president of Youngstown State University. 

Age and health drive this choice as well. Sen. Mitt Romney noted that if reelected he would be serving into his mid-80s, saying, “Frankly, it’s time for a new generation of leaders.” Many are also citing familial concerns, such as Rep. Brad Winstrup, who wants to spend more time with his young children.

Some are even saying that politics itself is motivating them to leave DC. Rep. Debbie Lesko, in her statement announcing her retirement, stated, “Right now, Washington, D.C. is broken; it is hard to get anything done.” 

There are several consequences to these retirements. First, untethered from the electorate since they are no longer up for reelection, these members may change have they behave. They will likely not be as engaged; scholars have found that these members decrease their participation in Congress. There is also a chance that they may alter their voting habits. Some members may drift a bit to the right or left, but it is hard to forecast who may change and by how much.

Both of these factors could prove important given the tight margins in the House. Following Santos’s expulsion, House Republicans can only afford to lose three votes on any given bill. If members stop showing up to vote, or start voting differently, managing the House will become an even more difficult challenge. 

Beyond this immediate session, introducing new members to the body also affects how Congress works. Academics have found that new legislators tend to stick to their fellow party members more and are less inclined to reach across the aisle. In other words, Congress could become even less hospitable to bipartisanship. 

As we near a presidential election year, retirements could pick up, especially if polls start predicting a blowout and the out-party partisans decide to head for the exits. Policymaking, which has already been complicated this year, will become even harder over the next twelve months due to either attendance issues or changing attitudes. And the end result is likely to be a more partisan legislature, which could feed into another large retirement cycle with frustrated members looking for greener pastures.

In short, look for these retirements to exacerbate, and not ameliorate, the challenges facing Congress. 

Michael E. Bednarczuk, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Austin Peay State University. He studies political behavior and public service.