Haley can derail Trump in New Hampshire

It would be smart for Donald Trump to start looking over his shoulder.

If he does, he will see that Nikki Haley is gaining on him. Sure, Trump still has a sizable lead. The recent CBS/YouGov poll in New Hampshire had the former president at 44 percent and the former governor and ambassador at 29 percent. But just a month ago a poll had Haley at only 18 percent. My experience — after 14 general and six primary elections for Congress — tells me that if your poll numbers are static and your opponent’s are on the way up, it’s time to check out how solid your numbers really are and how much momentum your opponent might have.

This is especially true in Trump’s case, where, though he has almost universal name identification, his overall support among New Hampshire primary voters is less than 50 percent. Even more significant may be the recent Wall Street Journal poll showing Trump with a 4-point head-to-head nationwide lead over Biden (just above the margin of error) while Haley’s winning margin is 17 points. The main differences between the Trump and Haley numbers are her stronger showing among women and independent swing voters.

As we get closer to actually voting in the primary, even some hardcore Trump voters may opt for the Republican candidate with best chance of defeating Biden, rather than casting an emotional vote for Trump.

All this, of course, will be played out against the backdrop of Trump’s criminal prosecution. While most Republicans, including myself, believe that Trump’s conduct and failure to act on Jan. 6 was indefensible but not criminal, primary voters must decide whether it is really wise to have an indicted — or convicted — candidate leading our ticket in November.

While a strong showing in New Hampshire is necessary for Haley to have a chance of derailing the Trump express, it is not essential that she win. In 1968, Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the presidential campaign when Eugene McCarthy ran a surprisingly strong but still losing race against him in New Hampshire.

Ambassador Haley has several added factors going for her in New Hampshire. She has been endorsed by Gov. Chris Sununu, who has won four statewide races, while Trump lost New Hampshire in the general election in both 2016 and 2020. Sununu’s strength comes not just from traditional Republicans but also from independent voters, who are eligible to vote in party primaries in New Hampshire.

Apart from the cold mathematics of vote counting and whatever deficiencies Trump may have, the reality is that Nikki Haley has run a strong and steady campaign. Her debate performances have demonstrated her knowledge of issues, particularly on foreign policy, and her ability to communicate her policy positions with composure and depth. This has been in sharp contrast to Trump, who boycotted the debates and simply says he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and repeatedly dwells on his false and by now tiresome whine that the 2020 election was “rigged” and “stolen” from him.

New Hampshire has a history of doing the unexpected and throwing roadblocks in the way of frontrunners. Henry Cabot Lodge came from nowhere to win a write-in upset victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964. Edmund Muskie saw his campaign crash there in 1972. Pat Buchanan almost ended Bob Dole’s campaign in 1996; John McCain defeated George W. Bush in 2000; and Hillary Clinton resurrected her campaign with an upset win over Barack Obama in 2008.

The 2024 presidential race has had an air of unreality, with both parties’ front runners, Biden and Trump, being viewed unfavorably by most Americans. A strong run by Nikki Haley in New Hampshire would, after all these months, provide Republicans with the opportunity to hear real issues debated on a rational, thoughtful basis. And the party and our country will be the better for it.

Peter King was the U.S. representative of New York’s 2nd and 3rd congressional districts for 28 years, including serving as chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Follow him @RepPeteKing.