Will Nikki Haley’s missteps lead to a Trump win in 2024? 

Oh, how the political winds shift.  

One week, Nikki Haley was riding high on an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and rising poll numbers. The next week, she is choking on a question about the civil war, losing support from the anti-Trump side by suggesting she’d pardon the former president, and dealing with an opponent who has little chance of victory attacking her for both.  

Let’s start with Haley’s gaffe. When a constituent asked the former South Caolina governor about the cause of the civil war, her response was, “The cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run the freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do.” The noticeable absence of the word “slavery” gave anti-Haley forces an opportunity to attack.  

However, as Matthew Hennessey points out in the Wall Street Journal, there’s a “long and short answer” to this question. And while Haley gave a short answer absent the mention of slavery, her answer was not incorrect. The Civil War was about state versus federal power through representation in the House and Senate and about, as Haley says, “how government was going to run the freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do.” 

The 13^th Amendment freed the slaves, and the 14th Amendment, written by John Bingham, gave them citizenship and extended all the freedoms and immunities of the Constitution and Bill of Rights, giving them suffrage and representation.  

The next day, Haley made the problem worse by blaming her gaffe on a Democratic plant. But she also explained why she answered the way she did: “What I was saying was, what does it mean to us today?”  

The Civil War means to us today that no person is subjected to servitude in this country. It took an expansion of federal power and the use of force to do this. It’s good that slavery is gone, but the expansion of federal power has had side effects that affect all Americans. Haley would be right to focus on that, but she could have done a better, more complete job of explaining herself.  

Next, Haley commented she would pardon Donald Trump if convicted because it’s “in the best interest of the country.” This opened Haley up to attacks accusing her of capitulating to the 2024 GOP front-runner, including from their shared opponent, Chris Christie. 

Christie called her stance “insulting,” saying she “believes in two systems of justice: one for all of us and one for the most powerful.” 

Haley is running for president of the United States, not president of Anti-Trump voters. The MAGA movement, in a lot of ways, is built on a suspicion of federal power being unfairly enforced against perceived political enemies. Locking Trump up would give more credence to that argument, and Trump, being the manipulator of power that he is, would surely use it to his advantage. However, pardoning Trump would strip him of that power.  

In the latest New Hampshire poll by Five ThirtyEight, Haley trails Trump 44.1 percent to 25.7 percent, with Christie in third at 11.1 percent. Christie is openly anti-Trump and entered the race to make sure the former president does not reach a second term; however, he is attacking the person in the best position to defeat Trump.  

It’s hard to tell if Christie is really anti-Trump or just pro-Christie. Should he pick a lane, he would find the best path would be to build a coalition with Haley and bring his 11 percent to support her, helping consolidate power away from Trump and into a candidate who may not be perfect but is ready to lead and capable of defeating the former president.  

Haley made some mistakes but again demonstrated a complex understanding of power. She should take the time to better explain herself on the civil war question.  She should also take a page out of Trump’s playbook and not back down; after all, she wasn’t wrong. She should also hit back on Christie to see where his loyalties really lie. Does he want to stop Trump, or is it just lip service for more attention and power for himself? 

If Christie wants to stop Trump, he should stop attacking Haley, acknowledge and highlight her leadership abilities, and help her win. 

Jeff Mayhugh (@jmayhugh28) is the co-founder of the Madisonian Republicans, a former congressional candidate and a political consultant for John Beatty’s 2024 campaign for Virginia’s 10th Congressional District.