Abbott, insurgent Republicans win big in Texas

In most presidential election years, the marquee battles are at the very top of the ticket. But in this year’s Texas primary, the main attractions were down ballot in Texas House races, U.S. House primaries and other contests. 

In 2023, 21 Texas House Republicans defied Gov. Greg Abbott and blocked the passage of his signature school choice legislation, prompting Abbott to vow prior to the final special legislative session to support primary challenges to voucher opponents. While five of the 21 recalcitrant representatives retired, 16 ran for re-election, with Abbott and his allies heavily backing challengers in 10 contests with both money and frequent Abbott campaign visits to the largely rural and semi-rural districts. 

Abbott succeeded in ousting five incumbents and sent three others into a May runoff; he failed to remove only two of his targeted school choice opponents. Abbott’s success has enhanced his political power and the credibility of his threats. He also has significantly increased the prospects of school choice legislation passing in the 2025 legislative session, where of the 21 Republicans who voted against school choice legislation in 2023, only between six and 10 will return.

During the 2023 legislative session, the conflict between the center-right Republican Speaker of the Texas House, Dade Phelan, and the more conservative Lt. governor (leader of the Texas Senate), Dan Patrick, escalated considerably while Phelan pushed through the passage of articles of impeachment against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Paxton was later acquitted by the Senate.) 

In retaliation, Patrick and Paxton, with the explicit support of Donald Trump and deep-pocketed conservative donors, backed Republican David Covey in his challenge of Phelan in Texas House District 21 located the heart of Texas’s Golden Triangle. Covey succeeded in forcing Phelan into a runoff, garnering 46 percent of the vote to Phelan’s 43 percent, with a third candidate, Alicia Davis, winning 11 percent. 

While Sen. Ted Cruz is a strong favorite to win in November, national Democrats still view Texas as the party’s best pickup opportunity in the U.S. Senate this year. In the Democratic primary, Rep. Colin Allred easily defeated eight opponents, winning 59 percent of the vote, well above the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a May runoff. Cruz easily won the Republican primary with 88 percent of the vote.

With the retirement of two U.S. House Republicans (Kay Granger in Texas’s 12th Congressional District and Michael Burgess in Texas’s 26th District) along with Allred’s U.S. Senate bid, there are three open seats in Texas this cycle. In the TX-12 GOP primary, Rep. Craig Goldman (44 percent) is headed to a runoff against John O’Shea (26 percent). In the TX-26 GOP primary, Brandon Gill cruised to victory in a crowded field of 11, with 58 percent of the vote, thereby effectively stamping his ticket to Washington D.C. in January in this ruby red district. In safely blue TX-32, State Rep. Julie Johnson also is likely headed to Washington D.C. in January after winning 53 percent of the vote in the 10-candidate Democratic primary.

In addition, two incumbents, Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District and Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in Texas’s 18th District, faced significant primary challenges. While Jackson Lee defeated her principal rival, Amanda Edwards, with 60 percent of the vote, Gonzales won only 45 percent of the vote, and thus will face Brandon Herrera (24 percent) in a May runoff.

Gonzales had been heavily criticized by many GOP activists in the district for being insufficiently conservative, including for his vote in favor bipartisan gun control legislation in 2022, one month after 19 children and 2 teachers were massacred in Uvalde, Texas, which Gonzales represents in Congress.

Finally, Texas is one of only a handful of states that still chooses its judges in partisan elections. On March 5, the three incumbent Republican judges on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals were challenged by three Republicans backed by Paxton and his allies. They were upset by a decision supported by the three judges in 2021 which barred the Texas attorney general from prosecuting election fraud cases without the consent of the local district attorney. 

Texas is one of two states that has two courts of last resort, the Texas Supreme Court (for constitutional matters) and the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals (for criminal matters). All three incumbent judges were defeated. And with no Democrat having won a statewide office since 1994, the three challengers (Lee Finley, Gina Parker, David Schenck) are a virtual lock to be elected in November.

Mark P. Jones is the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies at Rice University. He is a professor in the department of political science, the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s Political Science Fellow and the faculty director of the Master of Global Affairs Program.