Marooned into irrelevance, Vice President Kamala Harris finally might be tiptoeing out of the political wilderness — not through any efforts of her own.
President Biden’s accelerating tumble in the polls against Donald Trump is not just causing angst with Democrats, it opens the door for Harris, and only Harris, to possibly replace Biden on the fall ballot. Her stiffest competition, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, just has not shown the polling numbers to justify opting for him over her.
For the past three years, Harris has been mired below Biden in approval and in any ballot test against Trump. She had sunk so low that Team Biden (likely) gave Pete Buttigieg a tryout in the 2022 midterms. Newsom raised his own profile, along with other Democratic, hopefuls in case Republicans romped, mortally wounding Biden.
But that didn’t happen. The GOP had an historically awful first midterm election, fumbling the ball. In the aftermath, all talk of a one-term presidency evaporated as the scheming hopefuls rushed to declare their fealty.
Now, those days are gone. Biden’s polling has been on a disastrous trajectory since the Israel-Hamas conflict. He passed a critical inflection point in November, moving to a consistent losing position in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada — a position that would give Trump 283 electoral votes and the win in 2024.
Catching Biden
What the politicos and pundits have not seemed to notice is that Harris has quietly improved her polling position such that she has become a plausible alternative to Biden. Recent results show Harris pulling roughly even with Biden on favorability and improving on the ballot test against Trump.
The RealClearPolitics average for favorability is bad for both Biden and Harris, but the veep is getting closer, at a negative 18.6 percent against Biden’s negative 15.5 percent (Trump is negative 12 points). Recent polls, however, offer better news for Harris. The recent YouGov benchmark (unweighted data) has Biden at 54 percent unfavorable and Harris at 52 percent. New York Times/Siena has Harris at 54 percent unfavorable and Biden at 57 percent; The Wall Street Journal similarly has Harris 3 points better than Biden. Among independents in the YouGov poll, Biden is at 62 percent disapprove while Harris is it a less-dismal 56 percent.
In the ballot test against Trump, there is a lot less information. Harris is not typically polled, but the most recent Emerson survey has Trump leading Harris 46 percent to 43 percent. Trump beats Biden 45 percent to 44 percent — not much of a difference. Looking back to the last poll when Biden and Harris can be compared, in December, the Harvard-Harris poll had Trump over Biden 48 percent to 40 percent, but Harris down 52 percent to 40 percent. Note that Trump was over the critical 50 percent threshold. Harris is slowly trending better since then.
The evidence is fragmentary, as Harris is polled much less often against Trump nationally or in the states. But what exists shows a trend of narrowing difference between Biden and Harris. Given Biden’s troubles, Harris merits more polling interest, and she will probably get it.
Bad News Newsom
Where does this leave the golden boy Newsom from the Golden State? According to the polls, nowhere.
There is little evidence Newsom would fare better than Harris against Trump. Unfortunately, there is even less comparative polling of Harris v. Newsom than against Trump or Biden. But nothing shows an advantage for Newsom. Worse, he is likely to be competitive in fewer states than Harris.
There has not been a poll comparing favorability since December, but there is an Emerson/The Hill ballot test poll from February. In that poll, Newsom lagged Trump 46 percent to 36 percent, 7 points worse than Harris. And a series of state polls shows particular trouble for Newsom in Arizona and Nevada (17 electoral votes).
Harris trails Trump 48-40 percent in Arizona against Newsom’s 47-34 percent. In Nevada, Harris is down 9 points, but Newsom is down 17 points. What is particularly problematic for Newsom is that Arizona and Nevada voters likely know him much better than voters further afield. Awash with California transplants and well aware of California’s problems, it seems a solid conclusion that those who fled California are not going to vote for the guy who has presided over the decline of their former home state.
And Newsom cannot balance out those losses by showing strength elsewhere. He trails Harris badly in Georgia. As a result, it looks like Newsom’s potential electoral vote total is capped at 270, which leaves zero margin for error. Newsom would have to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. To be sure, Harris still trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, but she is more competitive than Newsom.
Newsom’s problems are contemporaneous and unique: an enormous budget deficit and problems with crime, drugs and cost of living. Harris is more removed from California’s problems. She does inherit any of the troubles of the Biden administration, but are those worse than what is happening in California? Plus, any replacement will be stuck with Biden’s record unless that replacement does an explicit and thorough break with Biden — and that’s not likely.
If the leadership caste in the Democratic Party is going to send the first Black, woman vice president to the back of the bus, they better have clear and convincing evidence that she cannot do better than the replacement. Right now, that’s not Gavin Newsom.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.