Incumbents in the House of Representatives enjoy a significant advantage in primary elections, winning reelection at exceptionally high rates. They benefit from superior name recognition, stronger fundraising capabilities and more robust institutional support, often running unopposed in their primaries to advance to the general election.
During the election cycles of 2014, 2016 and 2018, 99 percent of incumbents who sought renomination progressed to the general election, with a slightly lower success rate of 98 percent in 2020.
In 2022, only seven incumbent members of Congress running for reelection in their district were primaried out by challengers. Of these seven, four were Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021. Trump has not been shy about ensuring Republicans are loyal to him, endorsing all four of the victorious challengers against anti-Trump incumbents.
Super Tuesday delivered the first House primaries of the 2024 election cycle, as voters in five states (California, Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas and Alabama) chose their parties’ nominees for the November general election. Republican voters delivered a warning to their more moderate representatives that their seats may be vulnerable.
Two prominent moderate Republicans narrowly avoided primary upsets from previously unknown challengers, while a third faces a May runoff to secure the GOP nomination for his seat. All three Republicans benefitted from clear fundraising advantages and institutional support but ran much weaker than expected on Super Tuesday.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX-02) won only 59 percent of the vote against primary challenger Jameson Ellis despite outspending Ellis by a factor of 115 to 1. While Crenshaw has generally aligned with conservative positions, he has faced some criticism from certain Trump supporters for condemning claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election and for voting to certify the Electoral College results. Ellis referred to Crenshaw as an “election fraud denier” and attacked him for believing that Trump legitimately lost.
In Arkansas, longtime representative Steve Womack (AR-03) won by an even slimmer 54-46 vote, his closest primary since he first won the seat over a decade ago. Womack outspent his challenger, Clint Penzo, by a 13 to 1 margin. While Penzo did have some name recognition in the district as a sitting state senator, Womack was endorsed by the key players in Arkansas’s political establishment, including Sen. John Boozman, Sen. Tom Cotton and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Womack was outspoken in his rejection of election denialism and strongly supported the establishment of a January 6th Commission. Penzo ran to Womack’s right, calling him a RINO (Republican in name only) and attacking his conservative record.
While Crenshaw and Womack escaped with narrower-than-expected wins, Rep. Tony Gonzales (TX-23) was forced into a runoff by a group of right-wing challengers. Gonzales’s conservative opponents were galvanized after the Texas Republican Party censured Gonzales for his vote in favor of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Gun rights activist Brandon Herrera will join Gonzales in the runoff. Herrera was endorsed by Rep. Matt Gaetz and took more conservative positions than Gonzales on issues like gun rights and border security, winning the support of more conservative voters in the district.
Although moderate Republicans compose a small minority of the House, they have often allied with Democrats to pass key legislation in recent years, including the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the January 6th Committee, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Respect for Marriage Act. However, Republican voters have delivered a warning to their moderate representatives that their seats may be vulnerable if they continue to break with the party on high profile issues.
As Democrats benefit from a growing structural bias in the House, making it difficult for Republicans to secure overwhelming majorities, the ideological balance within the GOP caucus will be crucial for party leaders seeking to gather support for key bills.
Follow the Texas primary runoff elections on May 28 at Decision Desk HQ, when Tony Gonzalez will face right-wing competition as he looks to win renomination.
Zachary Donnini is a data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ. Follow him @ZacharyDonnini.