Former president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges is truly unprecedented, but when voters go to the ballot box in November, what will matter is not whether or not Trump falsified business records.
Rather, it is the issues — specifically, inflation, the economy, and immigration — that will matter.
Put another way, it’s the issues, stupid.
As such, if Trump wants to continue leading Biden, the former president would be wise to avoid the trap of focusing on his conviction, including refraining from blasting it as “rigged.” Instead, he should talk specifically about his policies to strengthen the economy, reduce the cost of living and close the southern border.
For his part, if he wants to win in November, Biden should also stay away from Trump’s conviction and the threats Trump poses to democracy. The president must remain on topic and remind voters what he has done for the economy and explain his own plans to defeat inflation and manage the border.
In this light, the decision by the Biden-Harris campaign to host a press conference outside Trump’s trial looks even more bizarre. It gave the impression that Biden is trying to weaponize the conviction to avoid having to talk about the issues, as Biden has long struggled to communicate his achievements.
Quite simply, despite Democrats’ efforts to demonize Trump, and regardless of the outsized media attention on the conviction, polls have consistently shown that what voters are actually concerned about is the economy and inflation, followed by immigration.
Indeed, inflation (35 percent), immigration (32 percent) and the economy (23 percent) were the three most important issues voters felt they are facing the country per recent Harvard/Harris polling. Conversely, what happened on Jan. 6, 2021 (4 percent) was second to last.
More specifically, nearly 4 in 10 (36 percent) of registered voters said the economy and inflation are the most important issues facing the U.S., followed by immigration (21 percent), per Emerson polling (link).
Conversely, “threats to democracy” was cited by just 1 in 10 (10 percent) of voters.
And, as I wrote in these pages just two weeks ago, Biden’s problem with the economy is even more pronounced among voting blocs absolutely critical to his reelection. Yet, the administration’s myopic focus on Trump — instead of the economy — continues to fall on deaf ears.
Nearly one-half (46 percent) of Hispanic voters, a similar 43 percent of voters under 30 years old, and one-third (32 percent) of Black voters say the economy and inflation are the most important issues, per the same Emerson poll.
For comparison, just 7 percent of Hispanic voters, 5 percent of voters under 30 years old, and 12 percent of Black voters say threats to democracy are the top issue.
In that same vein, this trend is also seen with Independents, 40 percent of whom say the economy and inflation are the top issues, while just 12 percent cite threats to democracy.
Moreover, voters are not by and large convinced that a second Trump term would be the threat that Biden and Democrats have continued to say he would be. Immediately before his guilty verdict, voters were split 50-50 on whether or not Donald Trump is a threat were he elected, per the Harvard/Harris polling.
Taken together, it is clear that abstract arguments about the unique threat Trump poses to democracy are unlikely to sway voters, particularly as the belief that Trump would be better on the issues that matter — the economy and the border — are widespread.
In fact, by a 27-point margin (52 percent to 25 percent), voters trust Trump — rather than Biden – to handle immigration and border security. And by a 21 point margin (50 percent to 29 percent), voters trust the former president more to handle the economy, according to Marquette University polling.
To be sure, this is not just a problem for Democrats. Republicans have spent years targeting Joe Biden’s son Hunter, taking advantage of his past legal and drug problems to frame the entire Biden family as corrupt.
However, in the wake of Trump’s conviction in New York City, it is much more likely that Democrats will fall into the trap of believing that they can win by avoiding the issues and simply shining the light on Trump’s flaws.
At this point, voters are intimately aware of Trump’s temperamental and legal challenges, and while there are many who do not want him back in office due to those flaws, including some Republicans, the overwhelming majority of voters are concerned with kitchen table issues.
On those issues, Biden lags behind Trump by double-digits, and Trump is sure to make voters’ frustration towards Biden on the economy and border a centerpiece of his campaign. Not only does this allow Trump to play to his own strengths, but also to avoid his weaknesses by deflecting questions about his fitness for office.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen just how much an actual conviction will matter in November, now that voters will be keenly aware that as of July 11, Trump will be a convicted felon.
However, what is clear at this point is that if Democrats believe they can win by focusing on Trump, without real solutions to what voters have consistently said are the most important issues, they are highly likely to be disappointed in November.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”