Why Democrats and Republicans should think about independents

The president seeking to withhold federal money for political benefit is undoubtedly a problem, but depending on where you stand, you either support the impeachment inquiry or not. With that in mind, impeachment is a political process and will largely fall along party lines, which means Democrats will have to persuade more than their base of voters if they hope to reap lasting political gains from this endeavor. However, if they fail to do so, it will be like the special counsel investigation, where the expectations were high but the results were not what they wanted.

We can acknowledge House Democrats will impeach Donald Trump, and it is relatively safe to assume that the likelihood of him being convicted in the Senate is low. In the immediate aftermath, Trump will declare that he was victorious. He will campaign that the entire impeachment process was a witch hunt because Democrats knew they could never remove him from office. In the eyes of some independent voters, he may be right.

This makes the next few months all the more important for Democrats who are betting a lot on this process. Some Democrats have wanted to impeach Trump well before Robert Mueller concluded his investigation, and they are betting a lot that this time they will finally put a political nail into the reelection ambitions of the president. But what if that does not work? After all, it will depend on whether Democrats make impeachment relevant to voters many months into 2020, particularly those voters in swing states, where the margin of error can cost an entire election.

A CBS News survey concluded that 78 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of Republicans, and 68 percent of independents say they have already made up their minds about the guilt or innocence of the president. The odds of those numbers shifting are slim. Only 7 percent of Democrats think the president should not be impeached over his actions, compared to 80 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents. It contrasts with 80 percent of Democrats, 12 percent of Republicans, and 35 percent of independents who do support the impeachment of the president.

It is no surprise that Democrats and Republicans fall along party lines when asked whether or not they support impeachment, which makes independents voters all the more important in a general election. With only 18 percent of independents saying it is “too soon to say,” compared to the 68 percent of independent voters who have already made up their minds, the percent of movable voters on impeachment is incredibly small, forcing both parties to make their political case to those coveted voters.

As a matter of strategy, Democrats must figure out a way to sustain the relevancy of impeachment in 2020. They have to relate it to the everyday lives of Americans and convince many voters that it is as important as other issues such as health care, the economy, and more. If Democrats cannot do that while turning the complexities of impeachment into easily digestible themes, it could become an afterthought for independents. Sustaining impeachment well into 2020 is not guaranteed to yield long term advantages to Democrats. An unconvicted Trump will be touted as vindication, making this task all the more challenging for Democrats.

On the other side, Republicans will have to convince independents that the entire process was a political stunt by showcasing the fact that Trump was not convicted in the Senate. Once they jump over that hurdle, they should focus on the economy and highlight the negative aspects of some of the policy proposals of the progressive Democratic candidates, such as establishing “Medicare for All” and ending employer health care, which would impact more than 100 million Americans. These everyday issues could be far more crucial to independent voters than impeachment.

However, if Republicans are unsuccessful, Trump could find himself in a contested race like in 2016 when he won by slim margins. There is plenty on the line for Democrats and Republicans going into 2020, but one thing is clear. Whoever wins independents will have the ultimate advantage.

Shermichael Singleton is a Republican strategist and political analyst regularly appearing on MSNBC. Follow him on Twitter @Shermichael_.