In just under two weeks, President Joe Biden and Republican challenger former President Donald Trump will square off in the first of two televised debates, with immense implications for the 2024 presidential election.
The June 27 debate will be a major opportunity for both candidates to try and address voters’ concerns over their respective vulnerabilities and make a compelling case for another four years in the Oval Office.
That said, Biden and Trump have vastly different goals to be considered “the winner” of this first debate.
For President Biden, above all else, it is absolutely critical that he shows the American people that he has the stamina and fitness for a second term. Concerns over Biden’s age have been one of — if not the — biggest thorn in the president’s side for much of his term.
If Biden fails to match Trump’s energy or even replicate the vigor he displayed at the State of the Union, calls for Biden to step aside will only grow louder.
On the other side, for Trump to succeed and sway moderate Republicans and independents, he will have to remain calm and not be overly aggressive. Voters do not want to hear him relitigate the 2020 election, nor his recent conviction in New York City.
Instead, voters want to hear that Trump has an actual vision for the country, and solutions to address the most pressing problems — inflation, immigration and foreign policy, specifically Ukraine and the Middle East — not simply “This wouldn’t be happening if I was president.”
Put another way, Trump succeeds if he sounds, acts and looks presidential.
Biden’s balancing act will likely be the more challenging one. He needs to be upbeat but know when to “let Trump be Trump” as the Biden campaign recently described it. The former president has a habit of making controversial and revenge-filled statements which often come back to bite him.
However, the issues will decide this election, and here, Biden will likely try and make the case that he has a plan to address voters’ other top concern: high prices. The president will want to make the case that he understands the toll inflation is taking on American families and has a concrete plan to combat it.
Importantly, Biden’s goal should be to stay away from his oft-repeated talking points highlighting the strength of the macroeconomy and declaring that the economy is stronger now than it was under Trump.
Whether or not that actually is the case, Americans clearly do not feel that way. Roughly two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say the economy was “good” when Trump was in office, compared to just 38 percent saying the same about the current economy under Biden, per CBS News polling.
Further, by almost a 3 to 1 margin (42 percent to 16 percent), voters think they will be financially better off if Trump wins than if Biden wins, per a separate CBS/YouGov poll.
Another major issue Biden will likely seek to address is the border. Immigration has increasingly become a top issue as cities across the country struggle to deal with the influx of migrants.
To that end, Biden should explain that his recent executive order was not a one-off, but a response to House Republicans refusing to take significant legislative action. Biden’s action is broadly popular — 70 percent of Americans approve according to the CBS/YouGov poll — but the president needs to make the case that it is part of a larger plan to secure the border.
Similar to the economy, this will be an uphill climb for the president. Even after the executive order, essentially one-half (49 percent) of Americans say Biden’s policies will increase border crossings, compared to just 2 in 10 who say it will decrease crossings, per CBS/YouGov.
In addition to the political arguments Biden will make, there is little doubt that this debate will feature a considerable amount of personal attacks from both candidates. Trump is all but certain to bring up Hunter Biden, and specifically the infamous laptop.
During the 2020 campaign, then-candidate Joe Biden declared that Hunter’s laptop was a “Russian plant” and slammed reports of the laptop’s contents as “a bunch of garbage.” Now that the laptop has been authenticated as evidence in Hunter Biden’s gun trial, the president will need to have answers to Trump’s attacks on whether or not he lied in 2020, what role Joe played in Hunter Biden’s business deals and more.
When it comes to how Trump “wins,” it is theoretically simpler, although that’s not to say the unpredictable former president will have an easy time staying on task.
Indeed, the two most important things for Trump in this debate will be showing that he has the temperament to be president, and has actual solutions. In light of CNBC reports that Trump was less than impressive during a recent meeting with CEOs, this is even more important.
As one CEO said, “Trump doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when it comes to policy. Voters need to see that aside from the bluster, Trump has concrete ideas.
He should start with his plans to end the chaos and uncertainty both at home and abroad, avoiding general statements, but giving Americans actual policy ideas.
In that same vein, the importance of Trump refraining from grievance politics cannot be understated. If the former president wants to be the next president, he should focus on the future, not obsess over perceived past slights and personal issues.
Ultimately, this election figures to be incredibly close, and a standout performance — good or bad — will go a long way to convincing undecided voters. And as the first of just two presidential debates, whichever candidate accomplishes their respective goals the best will likely see a considerable boost in momentum, they may be able to carry through November.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”