Poll: Any Democratic presidential candidate faces an uphill battle

Now polling conducted by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, immediately after the Republican National Convention (RNC) reveals a considerable boost in support for both Donald Trump and the entire Republican ticket.

Indeed, SCR’s poll shows that Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Biden from 5 points in pre-convention polling conducted by CBS News to an 8-point lead (49 percent to 41 percent) in SCR’s post-convention poll.

Moreover, in an expanded horserace featuring Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump held a 9-point lead over Biden (45 percent to 36 percent), with less than 1 in 10 (8 percent) likely voters supporting the independent candidate.

Taken together, this suggests that the convention and Trump’s speech, which a majority (55 percent) of likely voters felt was “excellent” or “good” was worth between 3-4 points for Trump.

With that in mind, while Biden’s withdrawal may shake up the race, Trump’s lead in other metrics suggests it will still be an uphill climb for whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is.

In that same vein, the numbers suggest that Republicans are well positioned to sweep, winning the White House, flipping the Senate as well as holding the House.

Republicans are ahead in both the generic House and Senate ballot tests, and a strong majority (61 percent) of likely voters say that the Republican Party as a whole is addressing issues they care about.

While national data can’t perfectly be extrapolated to states and House districts, Republicans clearly got a bounce throughout the ticket due to a well-executed, high-energy convention.

Importantly, it is only July, therefore this polling boost could prove temporary, as it historically does post-convention.

And yet, SCR’s poll suggests that it is growing more difficult by the day for the eventual Democratic nominee and down-ballot Democrats to win.

However, the poll also shows the challenges Democrats will face even regardless of who replaces Biden atop the ticket, particularly if it is Vice President Kamala Harris, as is now widely expected.

Among likely voters, Trump’s personal favorability (49 percent) is 7 points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumed frontrunner.

Similarly, despite Sen. J.D. Vance’s limited name recognition prior to the convention, his net favorability (+5) is 16 points higher than Harris’ (-11). And, remarkably for a first-term senator, likely voters believe Vance is slightly more qualified than Harris to be vice president (44 percent to 42 percent). 

While it no longer appears that Harris will be running as vice president, these results do point to the successful job the GOP did marketing Vance during their convention.

To that end, given her role as vice president, attitudes towards Harris may be due in part to concerns over the administration’s handling of Biden’s fitness.

The SCR poll found that roughly one-half (49 percent) of likely voters believe his administration has been mostly dishonest with the public about the president’s fitness. These beliefs may play a larger role now that Biden has stepped aside and Harris is likely to lead the party’s ticket.

By virtually any metric, the success of the Republican convention augers well for the party heading into the fall, particularly as Biden’s abrupt withdrawal and the lack of an official nominee figures to add to the chaos within the Democratic Party.

Frankly, it is hard to remember an election where the two parties were in such opposite positions this late in a campaign. Where Republicans are energetic and unified behind their candidate, Democrats enter their convention in a state of crisis.

Given that Biden has now stepped aside and enthusiastically endorsed Harris, it is possible for the Demcorats to regain some semblance of enthusiasm and rally behind their eventual candidate, likely Harris. Still, our poll suggests it will be very difficult to achieve that, no matter who the nominee is.

Ultimately, SCR’s poll makes it clear that right now, Donald Trump and the entire Republican ticket have a considerable advantage. And even if that momentum moderates in the coming weeks, it will take an extraordinary turn of events for things to swing back in the Democrats’ favor.

And while not impossible, that is much more unlikely following the RNC than it was just weeks ago.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”